POLITICO's hour-by-hour guide to watching election night

2 years ago 37

Some states connected  the US representation  are highlighted arsenic  a timer ticks.

6 p.m. (All times Eastern)

Parts of Indiana and Kentucky

Polls adjacent successful astir of Indiana and Kentucky (the bulk of residents successful some states reside successful the Eastern Time Zone). But the lone competitory contention — 1 rated arsenic “Lean Democratic,” “Lean Republican” oregon “Toss Up” — successful either authorities is simply a House spot based successful Northwest Indiana, wherever the polls stay unfastened an hr later.

Key races: None

7 p.m.

All of Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
Parts of Florida and New Hampshire

The large authorities closing astatine 7 p.m. is Georgia, wherever voting volition decorativeness successful the Senate contention betwixt Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker. Georgia should number the immense bulk of its votes connected Tuesday nighttime — but that doesn’t warrant the contention successful the tightly divided authorities volition beryllium called. If the effect is precise adjacent — oregon if the person is hovering astir the 50-percent-plus-one needed to clinch a triumph outright — it volition marque it much hard to project.

Four years ago, the elections of now-Reps. Elaine Luria, Abigail Spanberger and Jennifer Wexton successful Virginia signaled a unsmooth nighttime for Donald Trump’s GOP. This year, Luria and Spanberger are locked successful choky races: Luria’s Tidewater territory is rated “Lean Republican,” portion Spanberger is successful a “Toss Up” contest. Wexton is simply a spot safer — President Joe Biden carried her Northern Virginia spot by much than 18 points successful 2020 — but a adjacent contention determination would presage a atrocious predetermination for Democrats elsewhere.

Polls besides adjacent astatine 7 p.m. successful the immense bulk of Florida, a fast-counting authorities wherever we’ll get clues astir the magnitude of Republicans’ apt victories. Could Gov. Ron DeSantis defy the state’s penchant for adjacent elections and triumph a blowout that catapults him into a statesmanlike campaign?

Key races: Georgia Senate (Election Forecast rating: Toss Up), Georgia politician (Lean Republican), Georgia-02 (Lean Democratic), Indiana-01 (Lean Democratic), Virginia-02 (Lean Republican), Virginia-07 (Toss Up)

7:30 p.m.

All of North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia
Parts of New Hampshire

Republicans spent overmuch of the summertime and autumn pouring wealth into holding unfastened Senate seats successful North Carolina and Ohio. Late polls suggest GOP nominees Ted Budd and J.D. Vance, respectively, person opened up important leads.

If Budd and Vance triumph going away, that’s bully quality for Republicans elsewhere. But if the races are tight, it would mean Democrats could clasp their ain successful much affable territory.

Key races: North Carolina Senate (Lean Republican), North Carolina-06 (Lean Democratic), North Carolina-13 (Toss Up), Ohio Senate (Lean Republican), Ohio-09 (Lean Democratic), Ohio-13 (Toss Up)

8 p.m.

All of Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Missouri, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Tennessee
Parts of Kansas, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota and Texas

The busiest poll-closing clip is 8 p.m. Eastern, erstwhile voting ends successful each of 16 states and parts of 5 more.

Pennsylvania is the biggest prize, with its “Toss Up” Senate contention and a fistful of hyper-competitive House races. But it’s improbable capable votes volition beryllium tallied successful Pennsylvania connected Tuesday nighttime to task winners successful the closest contests: In 2020, the election-night ballot number misleadingly favored Republicans, and lone 82 percent of the state’s votes had been reported by noon the time aft the election.

Polls volition yet adjacent successful a fistful of straggling New Hampshire towns astatine 8 p.m., though it volition instrumentality good into the nighttime earlier we cognize who won the “Toss Up” Senate contention betwixt Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan and Republican Don Bolduc. We could, however, get an contiguous telephone astatine 8 p.m. for GOP Gov. Chris Sununu’s reelection — he’s heavy favored to cruise to different two-year term, which is simply a large crushed wherefore Bolduc has been hitching his wagon to the fashionable politician for the last week of his race.

There are 4 competitory House races successful Illinois, wherever Democrats drew the caller legislature representation for maximum partisan vantage — but their gerrymander could wilt successful the look of a important GOP question election.

Keep your oculus connected 5 New England House races for signs of a GOP comeback there: the reelection bids of Democratic Reps. Jahana Hayes (Conn.), Jared Golden (Maine), Chris Pappas (N.H.) and Ann McLane Kuster (N.H.), successful summation to an unfastened spot successful Rhode Island. (Golden’s race, a 2018 rematch with erstwhile GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin, whitethorn not beryllium resolved until a ranked-choice tabulation adjacent week.)

Key races: Connecticut politician (Lean Democratic), Connecticut-05 (Toss Up), Illinois-06 (Lean Democratic), Illinois-13 (Lean Democratic), Illinois-14 (Lean Democratic), Illinois-17 (Toss Up), Maine politician (Lean Democratic), Maine-02 (Toss Up), New Hampshire Senate (Toss Up), New Hampshire-01 (Toss Up), New Hampshire-02 (Lean Democratic), New Jersey-03 (Lean Democratic), New Jersey-07 (Lean Republican), Pennsylvania Senate (Toss Up), Pennsylvania-07 (Toss Up), Pennsylvania-08 (Toss Up), Pennsylvania-12 (Lean Democratic), Pennsylvania-17 (Toss Up), Rhode Island-02 (Toss Up), Michigan-03 (Lean Democratic), Michigan-07 (Toss Up), Michigan-08 (Lean Democratic), Texas-15 (Lean Republican), Texas-28 (Lean Democratic), Texas-34 (Toss Up)

8:30 p.m.

All of Arkansas

Arkansas has 8:30 p.m. (or 7:30 p.m. section time) to itself. There’s thing competitory present — Republicans gerrymandered the state’s lone borderline contested legislature spot retired of beingness successful redistricting — but erstwhile Trump White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders, is all-but-certain to clinch the governorship, which was erstwhile held by her father, Mike Huckabee.

Key races: None

9 p.m.

All of Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming
Some of Arizona

Wisconsin is the astir consequential authorities closing astatine 9 p.m. Eastern, with “Toss Up” races for Senate and governor. While it could instrumentality past sunrise to number the votes, we bash expect some to beryllium resolved by Wednesday, barring photograph finishes that necessitate recounts.

Polls volition adjacent astatine the aforesaid clip crossed the borderline successful Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, which could mean a projection successful the state’s intimately watched abortion-rights referendum. Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s contention against Republican Tudor Dixon is apt going to instrumentality hours much to resolve.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is locked successful a tighter-than-expected contention against Republican Lee Zeldin, and it’s highly improbable Hochul volition get the contiguous winning telephone astatine 9 p.m. the mode her predecessor, erstwhile Gov. Andrew Cuomo, did 4 years ago.

Moreover, Hochul’s softness astatine the apical of the summons could imperil Democrats down the ballot for Congress, including Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the seat of House Democrats’ run arm, successful the Hudson Valley. Eight of New York’s 26 legislature districts are rated arsenic competitive, and lone 2 of them are presently held by Republicans, who person country to grow.

Other than Wisconsin, the lone different competitory Senate contention ending astatine 9 p.m. is successful Colorado. Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet leads there, but nationalist Republicans similar their nominee, Joe O’Dea.

Republicans are besides hoping to marque inroads successful Minnesota. While Democratic Gov. Tim Walz is the favourite implicit Republican Scott Jensen, the GOP is successful the hunt to sound disconnected Democratic Rep. Angie Craig, authorities Attorney General Keith Ellison and Secretary of State Steve Simon. (Simon’s GOP opponent, Kim Crockett, has criticized Simon’s medication of the 2020 predetermination and refused to admit Biden’s triumph successful Minnesota.)

In the Midwest and Great Plains, determination are a clump of different adjacent House races: 3 successful Iowa that each thin red, 1 successful Kansas, 3 successful Michigan and 1 successful Nebraska. Whether mean GOP Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) tin past successful a blue-trending Omaha territory is 1 of the night’s biggest questions.

Polls volition yet adjacent successful acold West Texas, including El Paso, the hometown of Democratic gubernatorial campaigner Beto O’Rourke — who could beryllium declared the loser against GOP Gov. Greg Abbott arsenic soon arsenic the apical of the hr arrives, depending connected the borderline of Abbott’s apt victory.

And crossed the borderline successful New Mexico, Republicans are aiming to unseat Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham and clasp onto 1 of their endangered House seats.

Key races: Colorado Senate (Lean Democratic), Colorado-07 (Lean Democratic), Colorado-08 (Lean Republican), Iowa-01 (Lean Republican), Iowa-02 (Lean Republican), Iowa-03 (Lean Republican), Kansas politician (Toss Up), Kansas-03 (Lean Democratic), Michigan politician (Lean Democratic), Michigan caput of authorities (No rating), Minnesota politician (Lean Democratic), Minnesota authorities lawyer wide (No rating), Minnesota caput of authorities (No rating), Minnesota-02 (Toss Up), Nebraska-02 (Toss Up), New Mexico politician (Lean Democratic), New Mexico-02 (Toss Up), New Mexico-03 (Lean Democratic), New York politician (Lean Democratic), New York-01 (Lean Republican), New York-03 (Lean Democratic), New York-04 (Lean Democratic), New York-17 (Toss Up), New York-18 (Lean Democratic), New York-19 (Toss Up), New York-22 (Toss Up), New York-25 (Lean Democratic), Wisconsin Senate (Toss Up), Wisconsin politician (Toss Up)

10 p.m.

All of Arizona, Montana, Nevada, Utah
Parts of Idaho and Oregon

Two occidental states, Arizona and Nevada, instrumentality halfway signifier astatine 10 p.m. Eastern.

Each has a Democratic legislator locked successful a “Toss Up” contention — Sens. Mark Kelly and Catherine Cortez Masto, respectively. Each has a “Toss Up” governor’s race. Each has a Republican nominee for caput of authorities who denies Biden legitimately won the 2020 election.

It’s besides rather imaginable that astir races successful some states are inactive unresolved by daybreak Wednesday. The ballot number successful Arizona, wherever astir ballots are formed by message oregon drop-box, could precise good instrumentality days. In Nevada, the predetermination is mostly conducted via the mail, and ballots tin get arsenic precocious arsenic Saturday, arsenic agelong arsenic they’re postmarked by Tuesday.

Key races: Arizona Senate (Toss Up), Arizona politician (Toss Up), Arizona-01 (Lean Republican), Arizona-02 (Lean Republican), Arizona-04 (Lean Democratic), Arizona-06 (Lean Republican), Arizona authorities lawyer wide (No rating), Arizona caput of authorities (No rating), Nevada Senate (Toss Up), Nevada politician (No rating), Nevada-01 (Toss Up), Nevada-03 (Toss Up), Nevada-04 (Lean Democratic), Nevada caput of authorities (No rating)

11 p.m.

All of California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington

Polls volition beryllium closed crossed each of the 48 contiguous states astatine 11 p.m. Eastern, with the last contested statewide contention coming successful Oregon.

A credible-but-fading autarkic campaigner and wide disapproval of term-limited Democratic Gov. Kate Brown has fueled a competitory contention for governor, with Democrat Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan seen arsenic neck-and-neck. Independent Betsy Johnson, who was erstwhile garnering upwards of 20 percent successful the polls, has faded toward azygous digits, scrambling the mathematics for some Kotek and Drazan, who is seeking to go the archetypal Republican elected politician successful Oregon successful 40 years.

Meanwhile, House Republicans are hoping their question reaches the Pacific Ocean: They’re plotting to flip 3 races successful Oregon alone, with different 4 Democratic-held seats up for grabs successful California and 1 successful Washington State.

But temper your expectations astir results: All 3 of those states behaviour elections wholly oregon mostly by mail, and it could instrumentality a week oregon much to resoluteness the closest races.

Key races: California-09 (Lean Democratic), California-13 (Lean Republican), California-22 (Toss Up), California-27 (Lean Republican), California-45 (Lean Republican), California-47 (Lean Democratic), California-49 (Toss Up), Oregon politician (Toss Up), Oregon-04 (Lean Democratic), Oregon-05 (Lean Republican), Oregon-06 (Toss Up), Washington-08 (Toss Up)

Midnight

All of Hawaii
Parts of Alaska

Hawaii is picking a caller politician to regenerate term-limited Democrat David Ige. The lieutenant governor, Josh Green, is seen arsenic the favorite.

Key races: None

1 a.m.

All of Alaska

The last polls to adjacent are successful the Aleutian Islands, bringing an extremity to voting successful this year’s midterms.

Alaska’s Senate contention is rated “Solid Republican,” but that doesn’t mean it lacks for drama. GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski is facing a stiff situation from Trump-backed hostile Kelly Tshibaka, who has taken contented with the incumbent’s mean votes, including to convict the erstwhile president successful his impeachment proceedings past year.

Then there’s the state’s lone legislature seat, which — aft the results of a peculiar predetermination successful August — is present represented by a Democrat for the archetypal clip successful astir 50 years. Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is looking to replicate her triumph implicit Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich successful the wide election.

But some the Senate and House races whitethorn instrumentality a portion to resolve. Alaska’s immense onshore wide and distant settlements makes it dilatory to number the vote, and its caller four-candidate, ranked-choice wide elections mean it could instrumentality weeks if races deficiency bulk winners.

The ranked-choice tabulations, if necessary, are scheduled for the time earlier Thanksgiving.

Key races: Alaska-At-Large (Lean Democratic)

Read Entire Article