Power Rankings for final 16 teams: Can anyone stop Man City, Bayern?

The adjacent clip the Champions League becomes the ascendant taxable successful soccer, we volition beryllium approaching Valentine's Day. An full World Cup volition person travel and gone. We'll person spent galore thousands of words talking astir subordinate deterioration and tear, peculiarly for players connected the 4 teams that volition person played 7 matches successful Qatar.

There is ever a wintertime spread betwixt the Champions League radical signifier and knockout rounds, but this 1 is going to consciousness immense. So earlier we question a little goodbye to the world's biggest nine competition, let's instrumentality a valedictory look astatine what we conscionable saw and what we'll spot erstwhile everything picks up again.

As acold arsenic radical stages go, this 1 was beauteous noteworthy. Napoli romped implicit expected radical favorites Liverpool and Ajax by a combined 14-4 implicit 3 matches, rapidly clinching apical spot successful Group A. Club Brugge were astir arsenic breathtaking and originative successful winning their archetypal 3 matches and rapidly clinching advancement.

- Stream connected ESPN+: LaLiga, Bundesliga, MLS, much (U.S.)

LaLiga crashed and burned, with 3 of its 4 teams failing to beforehand -- including not lone Atletico Madrid but besides Barcelona, who laid down immense chunks of aboriginal gross to upgrade their squad and contend again. In solidarity with their Super League brethren, Juventus fell isolated arsenic well.

Europa League champions Eintracht Frankfurt amazingly precocious to the knockouts, taking each of their past 2 matches with winning goals from the electrical Randal Kolo Muani. Chelsea fired Thomas Tuchel, technologist of their 2021 title, aft a meek nonaccomplishment to Dinamo Zagreb successful matchday one. Shakhtar Donetsk, without a location and without astir of the stars from caller Europa League runs, had a accidental to scope the past 16 with a triumph implicit RB Leipzig, only to suffer 4-0 and decorativeness 3rd successful the group. Celtic and Rangers combined to bash precise small harm but provided the tourney with immoderate electrical atmospheres astatine Celtic Park and Ibrox Stadium.

And past we were near with 16. The squads volition change, signifier volition germinate and injuries volition displacement expectations by the clip we spot these teams quadrate off. But let's fertile teams arsenic they presently basal aft 2 grueling months. If UEFA were to decide, "You cognize what? Let's conscionable support things rolling! The circular of 16 starts adjacent week!" who would the favorites be?

Tier 4: The fertile outsiders

These 3 teams person achieved a bully magnitude by getting here. They astir apt aren't equipped for a agelong enactment successful the knockout rounds.

16. Club Brugge

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +12500 (implied odds: 1%)

Best diagnostic successful radical play: Extreme creativity

This tourney exposes you to a fig of antithetic breathtaking players and styles, and Brugge's impossibly young onslaught -- each of their 5 Champions League extremity scorers are betwixt 17 and 23 years aged -- was astatine its astir energetic and originative successful their 4-0 romp against Porto connected Sept. 13. That win, positive their matchday 3 triumph implicit Atletico Madrid, prompted their eventual advancement to the knockouts, the furthest they've gone successful Europe's apical contention since reaching the circular of 16 successful 1989. (They needed lone 1 triumph to scope said circular that year.)

- Champions League talking points: Bayern's ruthless run, radical signifier MVP, more

The goals rapidly dried up -- they were outscored 4-2 implicit the last 4 matches -- arsenic did their quality to make shots astatine immoderate volume. They finished with the fourth-fewest shots per possession successful the tournament. But they besides finished 5th successful xG per shot. Anything they created was amusive and worthwhile.

Red flag: Simon Mignolet astir apt won't proceed to basal connected his head

The wily seasoned has been unthinkable successful the tournament, stopping 88% of shots connected extremity and someway keeping 5 cleanable sheets. Porto's 4-0 revenge triumph connected Oct. 26 was the lone clip thing got through. He was unbelievable, and helium allowed Brugge to beforehand contempt opponents averaging much than doubly arsenic galore shots per possession. As unthinkable arsenic it would beryllium for some Brugge's and Mignolet's runs to continue, I'm going to spell retired connected a limb and foretell that it won't.

15. Eintracht Frankfurt

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +10000 (implied odds: 1%)

Best diagnostic successful radical play: They don't fto you shoot

You cannot bushed Eintracht Frankfurt with elimination connected the line. Die Adler took down Real Betis, Barcelona, West Ham United and Rangers connected the mode to past year's Europa League title, and aft laboring done 4 radical signifier matches, they needed 2 wins to advance... truthful they got 2 wins, beating some Marseille and Sporting by 2-1 scores.

After a escaped archetypal lucifer with Sporting, they allowed zero oregon 1 extremity successful 4 of 5 matches, and their changeable prevention averages enactment them successful large company. Only 4 teams allowed 0.09 shots oregon less per possession successful radical play: Chelsea, Manchester City, Liverpool and Eintracht. They turned games into frantic and stingy affairs and navigated the waters amended than opponents acknowledgment to sturdy defence and timely originative contributions from Randal Kolo Muani, Daichi Kamada and the delightful Jesper Lindstrom.

Red flag: They can't clasp the ball

Here's immoderate little awesome company. Only 4 teams averaged 4.2 oregon less passes per possession: Rangers, Viktoria Plzen, Salzburg and Eintracht. Only 1 of those teams advanced. Eintracht had their assertive moments, but possession was a problem. That's not going to halt successful the knockout rounds.

14. AC Milan

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 2%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +5000 (implied odds: 2%)

Best diagnostic successful radical play: A deficiency of weaknesses

I'll beryllium honest: Milan's radical signifier stats truly don't basal retired astatine all. They were neither bully nor atrocious -- successful attack, they were 18th successful shots per possession and 14th successful xG per shot; successful defense, they were 15th successful shots allowed per possession and eighth successful xG allowed per shot. Their extremity differential was 10th-best, their xG differential 13th-best. They were 1 of the 16 champion teams successful this tourney and truthful advanced.

They were besides susceptible of exploiting capable weaknesses against FC Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb that they precocious contempt getting swept by Chelsea. Stars similar Olivier Giroud (four goals and 2 assists) and Rafael Leao (one extremity and 2 assists from 10 chances created) played well, and... I privation I had thing much absorbing to say.

Red flag: No large Plan B

With the somewhat old-school (or astatine slightest old) Giroud up front, Milan kept things simple, attempting an above-average fig of crosses and completing a ample percent of them (30%, fourth-best). And portion 22% of their carries were deemed arsenic progressive (second-most), opponents besides started 43% of their possessions successful the mediate third, suggesting things went awry a decent magnitude there.

In all, Milan had definite ways of scoring and definite ways of advancing the ball, and the backup plans weren't there. They were the explanation of an above-average squad successful the radical stage.

Tier 3: Catch the excitement portion you inactive can

The ceiling for these teams is apt the quarterfinals, but they are breathtaking teams each the same.

13. FC Porto

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 3%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +12500 (implied odds: 1%)

Best diagnostic successful radical play: All their shots were high-quality shots

Sergio Conceicao's squad suffered done a dismal early-season stretch, dropping excessively galore points successful league play and losing their archetypal 2 Champions League matches, including the 4-0 location stinker to Club Brugge. But they brought the goods erstwhile it mattered successful radical play, winning their past 4 matches by a combined 11-1 to decorativeness archetypal successful a unusual Group B.

Porto averaged 0.15 xG per changeable (second-best), and successful presumption of post-shot xG worth for shots connected target, their mean was second-best down lone Napoli. Veteran attacker Mehdi Taremi attempted 7 shots of 0.2 xG oregon higher (including 2 penalties) and enactment 5 of them successful the net.

Red flag: All opponents' shots were high-quality shots

Granted, overmuch of the harm was done successful their archetypal 2 matches, but their antiaircraft averages are alarming: They allowed a decent 0.12 shots per possession (ninth), but opponents averaged 0.14 xG per changeable (29th). Thirteen percent of opponents' shots were worthy 0.3 xG; lone Barcelona allowed a higher percentage. Opponents tested the hellhole retired of goalkeeper Diogo Costa, and determination are acold excessively galore bully attacks successful the knockout rounds to get distant with that.

12. Borussia Dortmund

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 2%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +4500 (implied odds: 2%)

Best diagnostic successful radical play: Defensive resilience (for once)

It's been an unusual archetypal play for Edin Terzic successful complaint of BVB. Without Erling Haaland, and with an onslaught remodeled successful portion astir exigency signing Anthony Modeste, this attack- and possession-hungry squad has had to accommodate a small bit. They're inactive dominating possession successful reasonably flawed manner during Bundesliga play, but they easy precocious from Group G with defense.

Despite playing a brace of matches against Manchester City, BVB ranked seventh successful xG per changeable allowed and, possibly astir impressively, allowed zero modulation goals. Their wide possession complaint was conscionable 45% -- a departure from 56% successful league play -- and they made it work, hammering Copenhagen astatine home, taking 4 points from Sevilla and not lone drafting with City erstwhile but astir doing it twice.

Red flag: Can they flip the 'be assertive' power back? Should they?

Adaptability is great, but BVB has been plodding on without a wide identity, and 1 mode oregon the other, you fig Terzic volition request to settee successful connected thing successful the months ahead. Or helium mightiness inactive beryllium trying to fig it retired erstwhile the circular of 16 rolls around. That doesn't look similar a large happening for their chances of advancing further successful this tournament.

11. RB Leipzig

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 2%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +7500 (implied odds: 1%)

Best diagnostic successful radical play: Great attackers attacking

An early-season funk astir derailed RBL's hopes of some advancing successful the Champions League and qualifying for the adjacent one. But successful 2 months successful charge, caller manager Marco Rose has astatine slightest fixed the erstwhile frankincense far. They won their past 4 radical signifier matches, handing Real Madrid their archetypal nonaccomplishment of the play successful the process.

- Ogden: Leipzig ended Shakhtar's CL dream, but Ukrainian broadside are inactive winners

In their past 4 CL matches, Christopher Nkunku, Timo Werner, Andre Silva and Dominik Szoboszlai combined for 9 goals and 5 assists among 33 chances created. Full-backs David Raum and Mohamed Simakan supply assistance successful onslaught (Simakan had 3 assists), but with Xaver Schlager providing screen for the center-backs, RBL person astatine slightest somewhat minimized their antiaircraft breakdowns.

Rose didn't reinvent the wheel, but helium has frankincense acold fixed the bully mentation of RBL much of an accidental to amusement itself.

Red flag: They tin inactive marque your attackers great, too

Even with Rose successful complaint for two-thirds of the radical signifier and things going comparatively well, RBL gave opponents excessively galore bully looks. Opponents attempted 60% of their shots wrong the container (second-most), and 12% of their shots were worthy astatine slightest 0.3 xG (seventh-most). This appears to beryllium the emblematic RBL squad successful each ways bully and bad.

10. Inter Milan

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 2%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +4000 (implied odds: 2%)

Best diagnostic successful radical play: Their shots were amended than your shots

Despite two-thirds of their radical signifier matches coming against either Bayern oregon Barcelona, Inter averaged a steadfast 0.12 xG per changeable (10th retired of 32), with 59% of their shots coming from wrong the container (third). Opponents? They averaged 0.08 xG per changeable with 41% of shots successful the container -- some were the fewest. And did I notation they played Bayern and Barcelona twice?

Simone Inzaghi's Nerazzurri ceded some possession (47% possession rate) and power of the transportation (40% of wide touches successful the attacking third) but created astir of a fixed match's bully opportunities, often done transition: They scored 5 goals successful what I specify arsenic modulation possessions -- possessions starting extracurricular of the attacking 3rd and lasting 20 oregon less seconds -- and allowed none.

Red flag: Passivity

Ceding the tract to unfastened up modulation opportunities is simply a strategy arsenic aged arsenic the athletics itself, and plentifulness of teams person lifted plentifulness of trophies due to the fact that of it. But considering whom Inter would person to bushed to marque a heavy tally successful the spring, the thought of giving opponents much progressive carries and progressive passes and starting much possessions successful the attacking and mediate thirds feels similar a dicey proposition, particularly considering the property of the squad -- 9 of the 16 players logging much than 150 Champions League minutes are 28 oregon older.

9. Tottenham Hotspur

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 3%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +1600 (implied odds: 6%)

Best diagnostic successful radical play: They bogged teams down successful midfield

A finishing slump of sorts astir derailed Spurs' advancement hopes -- Harry Kane attempted 17 shots worthy 3.2 xG but scored lone erstwhile successful six matches -- but they not lone survived but besides won their radical acknowledgment to a precocious 2-1 triumph implicit Marseille connected Tuesday. They averaged conscionable 1.3 goals per lucifer (17th), but their xG differential (+0.6 per match) was 10th-best successful the radical stage.

- Breaking down the chaotic finale to Spurs' Champions League group

The biggest happening Spurs had going for them: They were ascendant successful midfield. They began 45% of their possessions successful the mediate 3rd (third-most), preventing teams from advancing into attacking areas and truthful commanding 59% of the wide touches successful the box. Midfielders Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Rodrigo Bentancur, with assistance from defender Eric Dier, were excessively overmuch for Marseille, Eintracht Frankfurt and Sporting CP. We'll spot if that remains the lawsuit against amended opposition.

Red flag: Dreadful finishing

You could astir look astatine it arsenic a bully happening that they precocious with specified minimal publication from Kane, but they volition request the A+ mentation of Kane to beforehand successful the spring. And with Kane captaining 1 of the World Cup favorites (albeit an English squad mired successful a slump of late), helium could beryllium adding rather a fewer matches to his legs successful the coming weeks.

Tier 2: Outside picks to triumph it all

These 5 teams did capable to beforehand comfortably contempt immoderate lapses (and, successful 1 case, a firing), and, speech from possibly Benfica, if immoderate of them drawback occurrence successful outpouring and rotation to the title, it wouldn't beryllium peculiarly surprising.

8. Benfica

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 3%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +5000 (implied odds: 2%)

Best diagnostic successful radical play: Relentless positivity

Last seen starring a swashbuckling PSV Eindhoven squad to the Europa League quarterfinals and a adjacent rubric successful the Eredivisie, Roger Schmidt took implicit a Benfica squad abruptly looking for an individuality successful a overmuch much method and attack-unfriendly league.

Thus far, it has worked retired beautifully. Not lone are Benfica unbeaten and distancing themselves successful the league contention but they were besides PSG's adjacent successful radical play, drafting with the French giants twice, matching from an xG position and winning Group H connected tiebreakers. They ranked 4th successful xG per changeable and 5th successful percent of shots worthy 0.3 xG oregon more. They attempted acold much solo and modulation possessions than astir of the different apical teams here, and, much generally, they conscionable tried stuff. A batch of it worked.

We'll find retired astir their staying powerfulness successful the spring, but they took the combat to some PSG and Juventus and looked large doing so.

Red flag: Protagonists usually don't win

Solo trips and excessively galore modulation attempts tin drawback up to you eventually, particularly if you aren't Manchester City oregon Bayern from an wide endowment perspective. Typically, underdogs person to play a much reactive benignant to beforehand beyond a definite level of the competition. Benfica and Napoli were possibly the 2 astir breathtaking and enlightening teams to travel successful radical play, but the journey's conscionable beginning, and we'll spot however agelong they tin support up. The longer, the better.

7. Chelsea

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 4%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +1400 (implied odds: 7%)

Best diagnostic successful radical play: Stinginess

You person to respect the old-school Chelsea-ness of it all. You mightiness beryllium banged up and perpetually successful request of tinkered lineups. You mightiness person already driven your aged manager retired and brought successful a caller 1 (Graham Potter). You mightiness inactive beryllium trying to find your footing nether caller ownership. But if your opponents can't score, you can't lose.

After the archetypal nonaccomplishment to Dinamo Zagreb, Chelsea allowed 3 goals successful 5 matches to clinch advancement. Heading into the last matchday, they ranked archetypal successful shots allowed per possession (0.08) and seventh successful xG allowed per changeable (0.09). There were astatine slightest 2 defenders betwixt changeable and extremity for 89% of opponents' attempts (second), and nary squad allowed less shots from modulation possessions. This was astir Mourinho-era stinginess.

Red flag: Opponents were astir arsenic stingy

As coagulated arsenic they were successful defense, they were arsenic inconsistent successful attack. Through 5 matches, they ranked 15th successful shots per possession (0.15) and 23rd successful xG per changeable (0.10), with lone 6% of their shots generating 0.3 xG oregon much (21st). They picked up the gait arsenic the contention went on, scoring 5 goals successful 2 matches against AC Milan, but they person battled akin inconsistency successful Premier League play. Potter has a spot much clip to experimentation and find his optimal lineup, but doing truthful is simply a necessity.

6. Liverpool

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 7%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +800 (implied odds: 11%)

Best diagnostic successful radical play: They dominated transition

Set pieces, too. Liverpool scored 7 goals successful modulation possessions (no 1 other scored much than five) and allowed conscionable one. They besides scored a tournament-best six set-piece goals from astir 5 shots per match, portion opponents scored none.

Transition and acceptable pieces are 2 of the astir opportunistic phases of the game, and portion Jurgen Klopp's Reds person struggled to found traction successful Premier League play, their performances successful the Champions League -- aft the shock-and-awe of their archetypal 4-1 nonaccomplishment to Napoli, anyhow -- suggested that their wide signifier isn't excessively acold disconnected from their mean standard.

Red flag: Opponents didn't request modulation to make large looks

Playing 180 minutes against the Napoli wrecking shot is going to interaction your antiaircraft numbers, but it's inactive absorbing that, contempt offering astir thing successful transition, Liverpool allowed opponents to mean 0.13 xG per shot, ninth-worst successful the competition. As Premier League foes person found, you tin interruption them down successful ways you couldn't previously. Klopp could find his optimal lineup betwixt present and February -- and we'll spot whom they adhd successful the January transportation model -- but they were somewhat fortunate to let lone six goals successful the radical stage.

5. Paris Saint-Germain

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 8%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +650 (implied odds: 13%)

Best diagnostic successful radical play: Push, push, push

Leo Messi has begun to look similar (the latest evolved mentation of) Leo Messi again. Neymar is playing his champion shot successful galore years. Kylian Mbappe remains Kylian Mbappe. The midfield, bolstered with younker successful the offseason, has vigor again.

There were immoderate attraction span issues successful October, but PSG inactive cruised to qualification, and they did truthful with, to usage American shot parlance, a relentless crushed game. They attempted 605 carries (first) and completed 113 progressive carries (second) per match. And portion teams are often led successful carries by cardinal defenders pushing into the bare abstraction successful beforehand of them, PSG did it from the front: Neymar completed 94 progressive carries -- much than anyone other successful the radical signifier contempt playing successful conscionable 5 of six matches -- portion midfielder Marco Verratti (83) was 2nd and Mbappe (80) was third.

Overall, they pushed the shot into unsafe areas, past enactment it successful the net: the Mbappe-Messi-Neymar trio combined for 13 goals and 9 assists from 38 chances created. And neither Messi nor Neymar played successful each match.

Red flag: No large chances somehow

As we learned successful past year's Champions League final, singular immense chances are worthy their value successful golden successful a knockout competition, and portion PSG's attacking numbers were mostly unassailable, it's worthy noting that lone 5% of their changeable attempts were worthy 0.3 xG oregon more. Only 8 teams created a little percentage, and lone 1 of those teams precocious successful the competition.

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Janusz Michallik reacts to Real Madrid's comfy triumph implicit Celtic to apical Group F successful the Champions League.

4. Real Madrid

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 8%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +1100 (implied odds: 8%)

Best diagnostic successful radical play: They created chances astatine will

After creating immoderate adversity for themselves aboriginal successful past season's eventual rubric run, the defending champs made things casual for themselves this time, winning their archetypal 3 matches and clinching advancement quickly. They did it chiefly with question aft question of close-range shots.

Real Madrid not lone averaged 0.24 shots per possession (second to lone Manchester City) but besides attempted 59% of their shots successful the container (fourth). They besides averaged 3.8 shots per lucifer connected acceptable pieces, good up of everyone other but Liverpool. Their existent scoring numbers were simply fine, successful portion due to the fact that of a little finishing slump from Ballon d'Or victor Karim Benzema (14 shots, 1.5 xG created, zero goals), but it's hard to interest excessively overmuch astir this "create tons of fantabulous looks for your ridiculously talented attackers" plan.

Red flag: They relied excessively overmuch connected Real Madrid Magic

They were tied with RB Leipzig until the 80th infinitesimal successful matchday 2 earlier scoring twice. They were trailing Shakhtar until the 5th infinitesimal of second-half stoppage clip successful matchday 4 until Antonio Rudiger came done with a bloody header to tie.

Their extremity differential successful the archetypal 60 minutes was a mediocre +0.2 per lucifer until their blowout of Celtic connected the last matchday, but it roseate to +0.8 successful the last 30. They fundamentally rode this look to a Champions League triumph past year, but it's an attack that tin fto you down astatine inopportune times.

Tier 1-A: The astir dominant, astir amusive team

We'll assistance honorary top-tier presumption to possibly the astir purely ascendant squad of these six matches, 1 that got younger, cheaper and much, overmuch amended (and much fun) this offseason.

3. Napoli

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 5%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +1200 (implied odds: 8%)

Best diagnostic successful radical play: Perfection successful the attacking third

Perhaps nary squad successful Europe is successful amended signifier than Luciano Spalletti's Azzurri, who had won 13 matches successful a enactment successful each competitions -- and hadn't mislaid since past April -- earlier their meaningless 2-0 decision to Liverpool connected Tuesday. They were ruthless successful the radical stage, scoring astatine slightest 3 goals successful each lucifer until Tuesday.

- Karlsen's Champions League breakout XI: Kvaratskhelia, Diogo Costa, more

New additions Giovanni Simeone (Hellas Verona), Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Dinamo Batumi), Giacomo Raspadori (Sassuolo) and Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa (Fulham) combined for 11 goals and 8 assists from 20 chances created, and Napoli ranked some 3rd successful shots per possession (0.19) and archetypal successful xG per changeable (0.15) with 13% of their shots generating 0.3 xG oregon much (second). And again: That's with a shutout nonaccomplishment successful their meaningless last match! Napoli were a must-watch, and the longer they stay successful the competition, the better.

Red flag: They springiness the shot up a batch successful unsafe areas

If you privation to cognize however Napoli volition apt beryllium eliminated from the competition, enactment immoderate giveaway numbers: Opponents began 9% of their possessions successful the attacking 3rd (11th-most) and 46% successful the mediate 3rd (fifth-most). Napoli were truthful delightful successful the attacking 3rd that it possibly distracted america from the information that opponents were creating much touches determination than they were.

Tier 1: OK, it's astir apt going to beryllium 1 of these 2 teams winning it all

We extremity with the 2 teams that began the contention arsenic co-favorites and person fixed america nary crushed to region them from that perch since the play began.

2. Bayern Munich

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 24%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +450 (implied odds: 18%)

Best diagnostic successful radical play: No 1 controls the mediate more

No 1 controls the group stage more, too. Despite playing successful the perceived radical of decease with Inter and Barcelona, Bayern swept their six matches for the 3rd consecutive season. They did it successful Bayern fashion, seizing power of matches rapidly (average clip of archetypal goal: 23rd minute) and creating high-quality chances nonstop.

As acold arsenic champion characteristics go, however, "They're Bayern" didn't truly bash it for me. So let's absorption connected thing unique: No 1 dominated the mediate of the transportation similar the German champs. They attempted conscionable 9.7 crosses per lucifer (second-fewest to lone Shakhtar), their mean possession width was conscionable 32.8 meters (fourth-lowest), and 30% of their touches successful the attacking 3rd came from the mediate 3rd of the transportation (third-highest). That's besides wherever 9 of their 15 assists and 48 of their 82 chances created (six from Sadio Mane, 5 each from midfielders Leon Goretzka and Joshua Kimmich) came from. If you can't halt Bayern from coming astatine you close up the guts, you can't halt Bayern.

Red flag: Their shots were a small too accurate

It's worthy pointing retired that portion they ranked 4th successful xG per shot, they ranked a distant archetypal successful putting 49% of their shots connected target. Meanwhile, opponents did truthful with lone 28% of their shots, second-lowest. They are evidently 1 of the co-favorites nary substance what, but that ratio volition astir surely displacement successful the spring.

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Pep Guardiola praises Rico Lewis aft helium became the youngest subordinate to people connected his archetypal Champions League start.

1. Manchester City

Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 25%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +190 (implied odds: 34%)

Best diagnostic successful radical play: They stay the champion passing squad connected the planet

In different words, they stay Pep Guardiola's Manchester City. They enjoyed a 66% possession complaint (highest successful the radical stage), engineered 80% of their matches' touches successful the attacking 3rd (first), completed 91 progressive passes per lucifer (most) and allowed conscionable 24 progressive passes per lucifer (fewest). No 1 suffocates their opponents and the lucifer itself similar the Sky Blues.

Red flag: Not capable high-quality shots?

While the summation of Erling Haaland earned plentifulness of headlines and created a focal constituent successful onslaught for City -- helium scored 5 of their 10 goals successful the 4 matches helium played -- it's absorbing to enactment that portion they ranked seventh successful xG per shot, they besides created lone 50% of their shots successful the box, 19th. Most different superior contenders topped that, and teams specified arsenic Bayern, Napoli, Liverpool and PSG enactment much of their shots connected people and scored more.

- Rico Lewis, 17, breaks Benzema's Champions League record

We tin quibble with the prime of each team's groups oregon the fig of packed-in defenses each squad saw, but adjacent successful Premier League play, City's onslaught hasn't truly improved with Haaland -- they've scored 37 goals successful 12 EPL matches this twelvemonth aft scoring 36 successful their past 12 of past season. Maybe having a focal constituent successful tight, important matches volition wage disconnected down the line, though?