Will American League MVP Aaron Judge instrumentality to the New York Yankees oregon extremity up backmost location successful California with the San Francisco Giants? Is erstwhile New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom bound for Texas? Where volition each of the Big 4 shortstops land?
Major League Baseball's 2022-23 escaped cause play is here, and immoderate of the biggest names successful the crippled are acceptable to determination (or enactment put).
We asked 7 of ESPN's MLB experts -- Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Joon Lee, Kiley McDaniel, Buster Olney, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield -- to foretell wherever the astir coveted players volition motion this wintertime -- and for however much.
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Aaron Judge | Jacob deGrom | The Big 4 shortstops | Justin Verlander | Carlos Rodon | Brandon Nimmo | More
Aaron Judge
McDaniel: Yankees, 9 years, $325 million. If you made maine conjecture (and you have), I don't deliberation we'll get a chaotic bidding war, and the Yankees request him much than immoderate different team. At this benignant of fig I deliberation they lucifer immoderate is retired determination and they'll skew toward adding a twelvemonth to get the AAV/luxury taxation fig lower.
Doolittle: Yankees, 9 years, $340 million. My presumption is that the Yankees volition apical immoderate the marketplace yields for Judge and truthful I landed a small supra the years and yearly worth of the statement projections.
Schoenfield: Giants, 9 years, $332 million. I'm going with Farhan Zaidi's remark astatine the GM meetings: "I deliberation from a fiscal standpoint, there's cipher that would beryllium benignant of retired of our capableness to conscionable what we expect the declaration demands volition be." The Giants person tremendous payroll flexibility, with lone $18.5 cardinal successful commitments beyond 2023.
Rogers: Yankees, 10 years, $370 million. Pretty simple. He'll apical Mike Trout's woody by $10 million, becoming the highest paid presumption subordinate successful the crippled by yearly salary. How tin the champion subordinate connected the astir iconic squad leave? He won't. And the Yankees volition wage up to marque definite of it.
Lee: Yankees, 10 years, $360 million. The Yankees instrumentality basal volition revolt if Judge is not successful pinstripes adjacent twelvemonth and Hal Steinbrenner has fixed each denotation that helium volition widen each imaginable fiscal assets to marque definite the AL MVP returns. Even if determination is simply a bidding war, I deliberation the Yankees volition marque immoderate determination precise tough.
Olney: Yankees, 9 years, $360 million. In their full history, the Yankees person ne'er had a subordinate who bore much leverage against them than Judge successful this moment. In fact, successful the franchise's history, idiosyncratic players person ne'er truly held an precocious manus -- not Babe Ruth (who was released), not Joe DiMaggio (who retired portion nether menace of losing his stature), not Mickey Mantle (who retired successful outpouring training), not Reggie Jackson (who was allowed to permission arsenic a escaped agent), not Derek Jeter (who got little than fractional of what his campy asked for successful negotiations). In this case, however, the Yankees request the subordinate much than the subordinate needs them.
Gonzalez: Giants, 8 years, $352 million. Two things we tin beauteous overmuch presume astir the Giants and their presumed pursuit of Judge: They'd similar a shorter deal, fixed that he'll beryllium heading into his age-31 season, and they'll person to outbid the Yankees. So what astir an eight-year woody that allows Judge to smash the AAV record, acceptable by Max Scherzer connected lone a three-year contract? $44 cardinal a twelvemonth for 8 years is simply a chaotic sum. But chaotic mightiness beryllium a prerequisite here.
Jacob deGrom
McDaniel: Texas Rangers, 4 years, $155 million. I was leaning toward him returning to the Mets and getting the Scherzer woody (3 years/$130M) with a vesting enactment based connected innings pitched successful the 3rd year, but I'm present much convinced that Texas makes a bold determination for a pitcher with a maxed-out warrant and I deliberation it'll beryllium deGrom. Carlos Rodon would besides marque sense, but helium astir apt signs aboriginal successful the wintertime to guarantee helium gets a precedent-setting fig oregon 2 successful his deal.
Doolittle: Los Angeles Dodgers, 3 years, $120 cardinal (with a communal opt-out for the past season). A woody akin successful operation and worth to the 1 Justin Verlander played nether this play makes sense. You could spot however the Dodgers mightiness spot deGrom arsenic the missing portion and however deGrom mightiness beryllium funny to find retired wherefore truthful galore pitchers find different level successful L.A.
Schoenfield: Rangers, 4 years, $160 million. The Rangers person already burned 1 twelvemonth of the Corey Seager-Marcus Semien era. They brought successful a win-now manager successful Bruce Bochy and they request starting pitching help. It's a large rotation of the dice fixed deGrom's wellness history, but this is the presumption the Rangers person enactment themselves in.
Rogers: Atlanta Braves, 3 years, $125 million. The terms volition beryllium worthy the treble whammy erstwhile the Braves bargain deGrom from their archrivals. Though it's a precocious yearly rate, it'll beryllium implicit beauteous quickly, giving Atlanta a fewer shots astatine the rubric with deGrom but inactive staying flexible -- arsenic Alex Anthopoulos likes to bash -- with the halfway of the Braves inactive successful spot adjacent erstwhile the declaration is over. It besides gives a small extortion for the squad based connected deGrom's wounded history.
Lee: Rangers, 4 years, $160 million. The Rangers volition request to marque different large splash to warrant the wealth they spent connected Seager and Semien past twelvemonth and this is 1 of the evident spots they tin upgrade. Texas needs deGrom much than the Mets request him, and I deliberation that's wherever helium yet lands.
Olney: Rangers, 4 years, $150 million. There's conscionable excessively overmuch hazard for the Mets to transportation deGrom and Scherzer astatine $80 cardinal annually. The Rangers are the squad astir motivated to bargain pitching this winter.
Gonzalez: St. Louis Cardinals, 4 years, $150 million. The Cardinals -- venturing into a caller epoch with Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina gone and Adam Wainwright heading into his last play -- person wealth to spend, needs to code and title ambitions to pursue. DeGrom and his devastating worldly would beryllium a cleanable acceptable for what was mostly a pitch-to-contact unit past year.
The Big 4 shortstops
McDaniel:
Trea Turner: Seattle Mariners, 9 years, $280 million
Carlos Correa: Giants, 8 years, $270 million
Dansby Swanson: Braves, six years, $150 million
Xander Bogaerts: Boston Red Sox, six years, $168 million
The tricky portion astir this is the next-best-shortstop enactment successful escaped bureau is Jean Segura oregon Elvis Andrus. So, the teams buying for a shortstop that don't onshore 1 of these 4 volition apt look to plaything a commercialized to upgrade that position: Willy Adames, Amed Rosario, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Paul DeJong, Miguel Rojas, Javier Baez and Jorge Mateo are the main options. In this script I person the Dodgers and Cubs doing that, but it's much of a coin flip than a beardown feeling.
Doolittle:
Turner: Giants, 8 years, $260 million
Correa: Baltimore Orioles, 9 years, $300 million
Swanson: Braves, 9 years, $150 million
Bogaerts: Chicago Cubs, six years, $180 million
If, arsenic I expect, the Giants miss retired connected Judge, they'll beryllium looking elsewhere to marque a splash and Turner tin acceptable successful astatine a fig of spots for them. Correa to the Orioles could beryllium a scope but determination is simply a batch astir wherever the Orioles are arsenic a franchise and the mode they spell astir things that feels similar a cleanable acceptable for Correa. Swanson returning to the Braves conscionable makes excessively overmuch consciousness to maine not to happen. And it's hard for maine to spot the Cubs coming retired of this wintertime without 1 of the apical shortstops -- and Bogaerts is the 1 who is left.
Schoenfield:
Turner: Philadelphia Phillies, 8 years, $280 million
Correa: Giants, 9 years, $285 million
Swanson: Dodgers, six years, $140 million
Bogaerts: Los Angeles Angels, six years, $184 million
This could spell successful a cardinal antithetic directions with teams similar the Cubs and Orioles possibly factoring into the equation arsenic well. Few owners privation to triumph similar the Phillies' John Middleton, and Dave Dombrowski is the maestro of signing large stars to large contracts, truthful I person Turner going to Philadelphia to brace up with his aged teammate Bryce Harper (with Bryson Stott moving to 2nd base). Judge and Correa successful the aforesaid offseason? The Giants could propulsion it off, adjacent with shortstop Marco Luciano coming up. I'm not buying the Dodgers moving Gavin Lux to shortstop and I don't spot the Braves giving Swanson that benignant of wealth -- much than Ronald Acuna Jr. oregon Michael Harris II -- truthful I spot the Dodgers going with Swanson's bully defence to regenerate Turner.
Rogers:
Turner: Phillies, 8 years, $270 million
Correa: Minnesota Twins, 7 years, $230 million
Swanson: Braves, six years, $165 million
Bogaerts: Giants (or Cubs), six years, $180 million
Dave Dombrowski has carte blanche successful Philadelphia aft getting his squad to the World Series, portion Bryce Harper and Turner cognize each different from their Washington Nationals days. There's small uncertainty Turner's velocity and defence volition acceptable successful with the power-laden Phillies. And there's besides small uncertainty they volition walk connected someone. The biggest shocker volition beryllium Correa returning to the Twins. He made specified a bully content there, Minnesota volition person nary occupation opening up the checkbook. He and Bogaerts person done the short-term opt-out deals, truthful semipermanent homes are what they're looking for. The Giants person already stated they person wealth to walk arsenic well. After the particulate settles, could a squad successful request of a shortstop telephone the White Sox for Tim Anderson? It's possible.
Lee:
Turner: Phillies, 10 years, $300 million
Correa: Giants, 9 years, $310 million
Swanson: Braves, 5 years, $150 million
Bogaerts: Red Sox, six years, $175 million
The Red Sox beforehand bureau is feeling important unit to re-sign Bogaerts, and I deliberation they volition request to widen beyond their comfortableness portion to get a woody done. Following the Mookie Betts trade, Boston fans are inactive feeling earthy astir the mode negotiations person gone with homegrown stars Rafael Devers and Bogaerts. Both person played large roles successful title teams, and fixed the struggles of the 2022 season, fans volition beryllium irate if the Red Sox bash not re-sign Bogaerts oregon regenerate him with idiosyncratic of akin accomplishment and past they neglect to scope the playoffs again.
Olney:
Turner: Phillies, 9 years, $270 million
Correa: Twins, 8 years, $256 million
Bogaerts: Red Sox, 5 years, $150 million
Swanson: Braves, six years, $126 million
In the end, if Swanson is to enactment successful Atlanta, the statement has to beryllium a woody that makes some sides a small uncomfortable -- with the Braves paying Swanson much than they privation to pay, and Swanson taking a small little than marketplace value.
Gonzalez:
Turner: Phillies, 8 years, $270 million
Correa: Twins, 9 years, $275 million
Swanson: Cubs, six years, $150 million
Bogaerts: Red Sox, 7 years, $196 million
I spot the Cubs akin to the Giants successful that there's an anticipation they'll walk large connected someone. Maybe Swanson is that guy, considering the Braves person shown they won't fto emotion punctual them to overextend connected contracts and that, fixed however it has gone lately, they'll astir apt plug Vaughn Grissom successful astatine shortstop and ticker him triumph Rookie of the Year. The Phillies marque excessively overmuch consciousness for Turner, the Red Sox can't suffer retired connected different prima aft trading distant Betts, and the Twins and Correa conscionable look similar a bully match.
Justin Verlander
McDaniel: Houston Astros, 2 years, $87 million. The alteration present is Jim Crane being successful complaint and helium did this woody past year. I presume Verlander's reps tin get Crane to hold to the Scherzer AAV ($43.3M) oregon thing adjacent to it and the question is if it's a two- oregon three-year woody and/or is determination an opt-out?
Doolittle: Astros, 3 years, $126 million. Verlander has flourished with the Astros, whose model of contention remains wide open, and it feels to maine similar he's hitting the marketplace mostly to found his value.
Schoenfield: Dodgers, 2 years, $80 million. Astros oregon Dodgers makes the astir sense, but the Astros tin past without Verlander successful their rotation and walk that wealth elsewhere. Verlander replaces the departed Tyler Anderson and goes to a squad wherever helium tin triumph a batch of games and proceed his pursuit of 300 wins.
Rogers: Dodgers, 2 years, $83 million. I truly wanted to prime the Rangers but Verlander volition extremity up wherever the playoffs are a definite thing. Houston has truthful overmuch pitching, they'll walk connected tying up that benignant of wealth adjacent if it's conscionable for 2 years. Los Angeles, connected the different hand, needs to guarantee itself of October success. Verlander tin assistance with that, yet having proved helium tin predominate successful the World Series. It seems similar a cleanable fit.
Lee: Astros, 2 years, $90 million. Verlander should beryllium trying to get a woody that exceeds Scherzer's declaration with the Mets and aft the Astros won the World Series and Verlander won a Cy Young, I deliberation the 2 sides volition person a hard clip parting ways.
Olney: Rangers, 3 years, $130 million.
Gonzalez: Rangers, 3 years, $120 million. The Rangers person wealth to walk and holes to capable successful their rotation. Verlander is the cleanable feline for this infinitesimal successful time. But he'll person to beryllium enticed to articulation a part rival that is not definite to compete, truthful I envision a three-year woody made up of subordinate options. The Astros person excessively overmuch interior pitching to privation to lucifer thing similar that.
Carlos Rodon
McDaniel: Mets, 5 years, $135 million. I'm leaning toward deGrom walking and the Mets bringing successful 1 of the different apical starters connected the market. Rodon and Brandon Nimmo are some Scott Boras clients and I deliberation Boras is anxious to find retired however heavy Steve Cohen's pockets are.
Doolittle: Orioles, 5 years, $135 million. As the Orioles look to determination into the elite tier of the majors, a splash for a hitter and 1 for a pitcher should beryllium connected the table.
Schoenfield: Mets, 5 years, $142 million. I person the Mets arsenic well. They person 3 starters successful escaped bureau successful deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker, truthful they'll beryllium spending a batch of wealth connected somebody.
Rogers: Rangers, 5 years, $132 million. Texas will spend connected pitching. That overmuch we know. It wouldn't daze maine if they signed much than 1 high-end arm, but aft retaining Martin Perez and trading for Jake Odorizzi, Rodon is the slightest they'll adhd to that mix.
Lee: Mets, 5 years, $150 million. This is the pitcher who makes the astir consciousness for the Mets from a worth and endowment standpoint. Cohen is not going to beryllium inactive this offseason and I expect New York to beryllium pulling retired its pocketbook again to amended its roster successful an country wherever it struggled with wellness past season.
Olney: Mets, 5 years, $130 million.
Gonzalez: Mets, 5 years, $130 million. I'd emotion to beryllium different, but I request to enactment accordant with my different predictions -- nary of which person a subordinate ending up with the Mets. The Mets person a plethora of holes to capable connected their roster -- peculiarly successful their rotation, which saw deGrom, Bassitt and Walker task into escaped bureau -- and are destined to travel distant with 1 of the apical guys. Rodon mightiness beryllium the one.
Brandon Nimmo
McDaniel: Mets, 5 years, $125 million. I deliberation Nimmo volition beryllium coming disconnected the committee sooner than aboriginal and the buzz is he's the Mets 2nd precedence aft Edwin Diaz.
Doolittle: Mets, 5 years, $110 million. Starling Marte successful halfway tract is not the reply for the Mets and unless they tin sway Judge to motion with them to play there, Nimmo is the champion option.
Schoenfield: Toronto Blue Jays, six years, $135 million. There is simply a batch of involvement successful Nimmo, but the Teoscar Hernandez commercialized opens up the doorway for Nimmo to spell to Canada. The Jays person said they privation a small much equilibrium successful their lineup and the lefty-hitting Nimmo goes to halfway tract and allows them to determination George Springer to right.
Rogers: Blue Jays, 5 years, $120 million. Toronto perfectly needs to get much left-handed successful its lineup and Nimmo is simply a cleanable fit.
Lee: Mets, 5 years, $140 million. Nimmo is simply a instrumentality favorite, he's well-liked successful the clubhouse and determination are fewer replacements for idiosyncratic of his endowment disposable successful trades oregon escaped agency.
Olney: Blue Jays, six years, $142 million.
Gonzalez: Miami Marlins, 5 years, $120 million. The Marlins person the organizational starting pitching extent to contend. But they desperately request offense. Ideally it would travel from a halfway fielder, peculiarly 1 who tin support successful a spacious outfield and is not overly reliant connected the location run. Nimmo is cleanable for them. The question is whether they tin elevate to a contender level. If ever determination was a clip nether this regime, this is it.
Prediction for a subordinate we haven't mentioned yet
McDaniel: Zach Eflin, Giants, 3 years, $39 million. He seems similar the champion campaigner to beryllium the bounce-back starter the Giants dramatically improve. Jameson Taillon is the different starring campaigner and gets astir the aforesaid deal.
Doolittle: Willson Contreras, Cardinals, 4 years, $76 million. The Redbirds request an mundane backstop to measurement into the sizable bare shoes of Molina, and Contreras is easy the champion connected the marketplace arsenic a subordinate who fits the measure connected the tract and successful the clubhouse.
Schoenfield: Kodai Senga, Mariners, 5 years, $80 million. Starting pitching isn't the Mariners' biggest need, but Jerry Dipoto raved astir Senga astatine the GM meetings and I deliberation helium dreams of a rotation that tin spell toe-to-toe with the Astros from 1 done 5 (or six). Then helium tin usage Marco Gonzales oregon Chris Flexen successful a commercialized for a 2nd baseman oregon outfielder.
Rogers: Wade Miley, Dodgers, 1 year, $7 million. Miley has 1 cardinal advantage: He won't person to get utilized to the transportation clock. The antheral works fast. He could usage a steadfast season, which adjacent helium admits seems to beryllium each different 1 for him. This is that "other" year. Miley's cutter inactive gets its done erstwhile he's on. Los Angeles is simply a cleanable spot arsenic helium fits into immoderate seasoned locker room.
Lee: Kodai Senga, Red Sox, 5 years, $85 million. Boston has been a destination for galore Japanese players, and the Red Sox volition request to amended their rotation, particularly if Nathan Eovaldi leaves successful escaped agency.
Olney: AJ Pollock, Giants, 2 years, $20 million. The Giants emotion their platoons, and Pollock wrecks left-handed pitching (.935 OPS vs. lefties successful 2022). Plus helium knows the part truthful well.
Gonzalez: Cody Bellinger, Yankees, 1 year, $22 million. If Bellinger is lone going to judge a one-year woody -- and that's the plan, his agent, Scott Boras, told The Athletic -- past a bully bidding warfare is going to play out, and a squad mightiness person to footwear successful a lucrative 2024 subordinate enactment arsenic a sweetener. Bellinger needs to spell to a squad that possesses the resources to springiness him the champion accidental to recapture who helium was. A abbreviated structure successful close tract helps, too.
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