The MLS Cup playoffs are down to their last four. Rather amazingly for this league, it's the accustomed suspects: your Supporters' Shield winners, LAFC; the Philadelphia Union, who finished the play level connected points with the Black and Gold; Austin FC, the No. 2 effect successful the Western Conference; and New York City FC, your defending MLS Cup champions.
Sure, this postseason has seen immoderate upsets, but this is 1 of the astir regular-season-representative acceptable of league finals successful caller memory. LAFC, Philadelphia and Austin were 3 of the league's 5 champion teams from commencement to decorativeness this season, and isolated from immoderate CONCACAF Champions League-related hiccups and an accommodation play pursuing the departures of 2021 Golden Boot victor Valentin Castellanos and respected manager Ronny Deila, NYCFC could see themselves portion of that group, too.
With the league finals kicking disconnected connected Sunday, ESPN asked Jeff Carlisle and Austin Lindberg to interruption down some matchups, and had Kyle Bonagura and Dan Hajducky assistance them foretell which 2 teams volition caput to the MLS Cup adjacent Saturday.
Eastern Conference
1. Philadelphia Union vs. 3. New York City FC (Sunday, 8 p.m. ET)
The extremity of past season's playoffs indispensable surely person been pugnacious to tummy for Philadelphia. Having fallen successful an Eastern Conference last decision to NYCFC portion 11 players were absent due to the fact that of COVID protocols, the Union past had to ticker from location arsenic the Bronx Blues went to Portland and bushed the Timbers to MLS Cup.
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That should beryllium information capable connected Sunday. Philly inactive person much to prove, though.
The Union won some contests against NYCFC this season, 2-1 astatine location and 2-0 connected the road, bettering their opponents successful some expected goals (xG) 4.06-2.78 and chances 22-19 crossed the 2 games. Despite Philadelphia's dominance this play arsenic the Eastern Conference champions, tied for astir points successful the league successful 2022 and its highest-scoring team, they were reasonably pedestrian successful accidental instauration (13th) and shots conceded (14th), and trailed NYCFC successful some categories arsenic good arsenic xG and shots connected people conceded.
From the extremity out, though, Philly are without adjacent successful MLS. Their full of 26 goals against is champion successful the league and Andre Blake's 11.24 goals prevented is bully capable for second.
Even without Castellanos, the extent and assortment of attackers that NYCFC tin tract is impressive. Between their 2 playoff wins truthful acold and the last 3 games of the regular season, Santiago Rodriguez, Talles Magno, Gabriel Pereira, Heber and Maxi Moralez person combined for 10 goals and 8 assists. That benignant of signifier should frighten immoderate postseason opponent.
Philadelphia aren't conscionable immoderate postseason opponent, though. Blake is arguably the champion goalkeeper successful MLS history, Jack Elliott and Jakob Glesnes are among the premier center-back duos successful the league, Kai Wagner's sustained performances astatine left-back person garnered sizeable involvement from European clubs and Jose Martinez offers that backmost enactment capable enactment for them to concede the sixth fewest shots connected people successful MLS. Oh, and nary 1 successful the league scored much than the Union's 73 goals successful 2022. -- Lindberg
Predictions:
The Union felt hard done by erstwhile 11 players were kept retired of past year's league last against NYCFC due to the fact that of COVID protocols. This is simply a accidental to marque amends, and their equilibrium should get the occupation done against the defending champs. -- Carlisle
It's a lucifer of differing philosophies: NYCFC, a tentacle of City Football Group's planetary empire; and Philadelphia, a homegrown factory, with an oculus for talent. Both philosophies person evidently worked, but the Union played astatine a level this play that their counterparts person ne'er reached, adjacent connected their mode to winning MLS Cup past year. Philadelphia is the pick. -- Bonagura
NYCFC dispatched Miami and upended Montreal successful speedy succession, scoring 3 goals successful each of Round One and the league semifinals, but Philadelphia volition proceed their historical play and stymie NYCFC's streaking offense. It's a agelong clip coming for the Union -- on with with the Phillies successful the World Series and the Eagles inactive undefeated -- who volition underline rather the infinitesimal for the City of Brotherly Love by making the franchise's archetypal MLS Cup final. -- Hajducky
This isn't conscionable Philadelphia's unthinkable defence and goalkeeping against NYCFC's red-hot attack. The signifier the New Yorkers are successful should origin a scare connected the eve of Halloween, but connected apical of a stout instauration astatine the back, the Union boast the champion goal-scoring figures successful the league. -- Lindberg
Western Conference
1. LAFC vs. 2. Austin FC (Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, stream unrecorded connected ABC)
For each of the speech astir MLS parity, the 2 champion teams successful the Western Conference during the regular play person really reached the league final. It wasn't easy, of course. LAFC needed a extremity astatine the decease to get past the LA Galaxy. Austin needed penalties to past a league semifinal brushwood with Real Salt Lake. But present we are, and this has each the makings of a cracking match.
Austin had the precocious manus during the regular season, claiming a brace of wins, the 2nd a 4-1 thumping of the Black and Gold astatine Q2 Stadium. But LAFC person since added an ace to an already stacked hand. It took Denis Bouanga a portion to find his feet with LAFC, but helium has excelled successful the past period and bagged 2 goals against the Galaxy. He has besides provided further dynamism, successful peculiar disconnected the dribble, to an LAFC onslaught that already boasts Carlos Vela and Cristian Arango.
The Verde person immoderate high-value cards to play beyond MVP campaigner Sebastian Driussi. Diego Fagundez has enjoyed a revival successful Austin, with his 21 combined goals and assists a vocation high. His quality to onslaught from escaped kicks is an plus that tends to travel successful useful during the postseason.
Both teams emotion to get retired successful transition. It's wherever the likes of Driussi and Vela thrive. The question is: Will either broadside let that to happen? Given that Austin are connected the road, it won't beryllium a astonishment to spot them beryllium backmost and counter, adjacent though they were connected the beforehand ft during the aforementioned 4-1 triumph backmost successful August. Alex Ring is perfectly adept astatine sitting successful alongside Daniel Pereira and clogging up the middle. That volition enactment the onus connected LAFC's Ilie Sanchez -- and to a lesser grade Kellyn Acosta and Jose Cifuentes -- to enactment tactically disciplined and not get caught successful a susceptible antiaircraft shape.
One country wherever Austin look to person an vantage is successful goal. Brad Stuver (4.49 goals prevented, according to ESPN Stats & Information) has been importantly amended than LAFC counterpart Max Crepeau (-3.04 extremity prevented), and Stuver already has the acquisition of prevailing successful a punishment shootout. But it's each astir who turns up connected the day. -- Carlisle
Predictions:
Both teams are riding high, but I'm going with LAFC here, arsenic the Black and Gold yet marque home-field vantage number successful a league final. -- Carlisle
As amusive arsenic an underdog communicative tin be, this signifier of the playoffs is usually amended erstwhile the teams that were the champion during the regular play are inactive alive. Such is the lawsuit here. LAFC and Austin were the people of the Western Conference each play and person some taken the league guardant connected and disconnected the field. Despite Austin's 2 wins against the Black and Gold this season, look for LAFC to capitalize connected their homefield vantage and scope the MLS Cup last for the archetypal time. -- Bonagura
Don't overthink it: Austin person had a fantastic 2022, but marching into Banc of California Stadium with a travel to the Cup last connected the enactment is simply a Herculean undertaking. LAFC volition compression it retired en way to their archetypal winner-take-all appearance. -- Hajducky
LAFC faltered down the stretch, but their league semifinal triumph implicit the Galaxy demonstrated determination successful a infinitesimal that would've seen erstwhile iterations of the squad wilt. That gritty acquisition volition travel successful useful against an Austin squad that looks to beryllium backmost successful apical form. -- Lindberg
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