Putin pins Ukraine hopes on winter and divisive US politics - BBC

It feels similar I'm watching a country from a James Bond film.

Somewhere adjacent Moscow, Russia's president is up connected signifier being quizzed astir the Apocalypse. The moderator reminds Putin helium had erstwhile predicted that, aft a atomic war, Russians would spell to heaven.

"We're successful nary unreserved to get there, are we?" the moderator enquires hopefully.

There's a long, uncomfortable pause. Seven seconds of silence.

"Your soundlessness is worrying me," the moderator says.

"It was meant to," replies Putin with a chuckle.

Forgive maine for not laughing. This is nary Hollywood blockbuster with a guaranteed blessed ending. The events of the past 8 months are a real-life play that has brought untold suffering to Ukraine and, galore believe, the satellite person to atomic struggle than astatine immoderate clip since the Cuban Missile Crisis 60 years ago.

So, wherever does the screenplay spell from here?

Much depends connected the reply to this question: however acold is Vladimir Putin prepared to spell to unafraid triumph - oregon to debar decision - successful Ukraine?

If you re-read his code to the federation from 24 February - the code helium made aft ordering the penetration of Ukraine - you whitethorn reason helium volition bash immoderate it takes:

"And present a fewer important - precise important - words to those who whitethorn beryllium tempted to meddle from the sidelines successful what's happening. Those who effort to get successful our way, oregon make threats to our state and our people, should beryllium aware: Russia's effect volition beryllium instantaneous and bring the benignant of consequences you person ne'er experienced successful history."

Outside Russia, "consequences you person ne'er experienced successful history" was wide interpreted arsenic unashamed atomic sabre-rattling. And, successful the months that followed, the rattling continued.

In April, President Putin threatened "a lightning-fast effect [if] anyone tries to interfere from the sidelines and make a strategical menace to Russia. We person each the weapons we request for this". In September helium added his infamous one-liner: "This is nary bluff."

This week, astatine the Valdai Discussion Club (scene of that long, worrying intermission I described earlier), President Putin was sending mixed signals. He denied having immoderate volition of utilizing atomic weapons successful Ukraine.

"We spot nary request for that," helium said. "There is nary point, neither political, nor military."

But connected the side-lines of the Discussion Club, you couldn't flight that rattling.

"There is simply a hazard of Russia utilizing atomic weapons. Not against Ukraine, but against the West," said Dmitry Suslov, a subordinate of Russia's Council connected Foreign and Defence Policy.

"If a azygous American rocket hits Russian subject infrastructure wrong Russia, we would marque an historical leap towards atomic Armageddon. According to authoritative Russian atomic doctrine, Russia would motorboat a strategical atomic onslaught against the US and each Nato countries arsenic soon arsenic we witnesser the motorboat of Western missiles against our territory, nary substance however they are armed. Then the full satellite volition die."

Alarming rhetoric? Definitely.

A realistic scenario? I'm not truthful sure. Setting speech statesmanlike pauses (most likely, for melodramatic effect) and caller Russian rhetoric, I deliberation it is improbable the Kremlin close present is readying atomic escalation successful the Ukraine war.

Especially erstwhile you see the 4 M's:

As the US midterm elections approach, the Kremlin volition cognize that the Republican Party has a accidental of winning power of Congress.

Earlier this month, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy warned that Republicans volition not constitute a "blank cheque" for Ukraine if they triumph backmost the House majority.

That volition person been euphony to President Putin's ears. Even though it is unclear whether American assistance to Ukraine would beryllium importantly impacted by a Republican victory, the Kremlin volition invited immoderate imaginable of a simplification successful US subject assistance to Kyiv.

Vladimir Putin inactive seems to beryllium calculating that, with Russian vigor supplies to Europe severely curtailed, a acold wintertime volition worsen Europe's vigor and outgo of surviving crises and unit Western governments to compromise with the Kremlin: reducing their enactment for Ukraine successful speech for Russian energy.

So far, though, Europe looks amended prepared for wintertime than Moscow expected.

A milder than mean October, combined with accrued supplies of liquified earthy gas, mean that state reserves person been topped up and state prices successful Europe person plunged.

But if temperatures plunge, too, unit whitethorn grow. Especially connected Ukraine, wherever the Russian subject has been pounding the country's vigor infrastructure.

In caller days we've seen Vladimir Putin taking steps to mobilise the full of the Russian system and Russian manufacture for the needs of his "special subject operation".

In galore ways it feels arsenic if the full of the state has been placed connected a semipermanent warfare footing. A sign, perhaps, that the Kremlin is preparing present for a protracted warfare successful Ukraine.

A Cold War instauration that inactive applies today: the presumption that if 1 broadside launches atomic weapons, the different broadside volition respond successful benignant and everyone dies. There are nary winners successful a atomic war. Vladimir Putin volition cognize that.

Disclaimer. All of the supra is based connected the premise it would beryllium logical to presume that determination volition beryllium nary atomic constituent to the Ukraine war.

There is conscionable 1 problem. Logic went retired of the model present connected 24 February. And wars bash not needfully make logically.

If determination is 1 happening the Cuban Missile Crisis taught the world, it was however the satellite tin abruptly find itself connected the borderline of demolition arsenic a effect of miscalculations and miscommunication.

Which brings maine onto 1 last "M": mistakes.

President Putin's "special operation" has not gone according to plan. What was expected to person taken days - maximum weeks - has dragged connected for months. The Kremlin appears to person wholly underestimated the standard of Ukrainian resistance, arsenic good arsenic misjudging Western enactment for Kyiv and the tsunami of planetary sanctions Russia would face.

And, contempt pledging aboriginal connected that lone "professional soldiers" would bash the fighting, President Putin yet had to state "partial mobilisation". What's more, successful caller weeks arsenic a effect of a Ukrainian counter-offensive, Russian troops person been losing immoderate of the territory they had occupied.

But 1 happening Vladimir Putin seldom admits to is making mistakes. For now, helium seems determined to prosecute this warfare and look with thing helium tin telephone a victory.