Real Madrid vs. Barcelona: Bill Connelly's what to watch for guide

It's the biggest derby successful soccer, possibly the biggest league lucifer successful the world, and it ever feels similar it's played successful a authorities of motion. You can't conscionable speech astir Real Madrid and Barcelona arsenic they are -- El Clasico is everlastingly astir these storied clubs arsenic they were and volition be, too. (They look disconnected Sunday, Oct. 16, 10:15 a.m. ET, connected ESPN2.)

You can't speech astir Barcelona without referencing and weighing the chaotic spending spree they went connected this summer. Despite having the champion squad successful LaLiga implicit the 2nd fractional of past season, contempt stomping Real Madrid 4-0 successful March and contempt crippling indebtedness issues that forced the departure of Lionel Messi past August, the nine sold aboriginal tv gross and portion of the club's in-house accumulation institution to spend the acquisition of 7 caller players, lone 2 of whom person yet go superior starters. (And due to the fact that the Transfer Industrial Complex ne'er pauses for adjacent a second, determination are already rumors of them trying to fig retired however to bring Messi backmost adjacent summer.)

Thanks to a brace of mediocre performances against Inter Milan, they are present staring elimination -- and the deprivation of the wealth that comes with appearances successful the Champions League knockout rounds -- successful the face. That colors everything we accidental astir Barcelona successful the process, too.

- Real Madrid vs. Barcelona connected ESPN+ (Sunday, Oct. 16, 10:15 a.m. ET)

Meanwhile, you can't speech astir Real Madrid without referencing aboriginal Galacticos. A week's worthy of "Erling Haaland has a peculiar merchandise clause for Real Madrid?" headlines came retired of obscurity past week, and aft lone a little respite, the "Kylian Mbappe to Madrid?" rumors person started each implicit again. It seems it's seldom astir who Real Madrid has; it's ever astir who they're going to have.

That's a shame due to the fact that if we were to simply intermission clip and enactment successful the contiguous tense, we'd beryllium looking astatine what is, connected paper, astir arsenic adjacent a matchup arsenic you could privation for immoderate match, overmuch little the derby of each derbies. El Clasico kicks disconnected successful Madrid's Estadio Santiago Bernabeu this Sunday, and it could beryllium an implicit delight.

A uncommon level of aboriginal home dominance

Over the past 7 seasons, Barca and Real Madrid person combined for six LaLiga titles and 4 Champions League titles, but betwixt them they had lone topped 18 points successful their archetypal 8 matchdays erstwhile successful that span (Barca did it successful 2017-18 connected the mode to 93 points and an casual title). They person taken to easing into a fixed season.

This season, they some basal astatine 22 points aft 8 matches. Barca began the play with a 0-0 location gully against Rayo Vallecano, but person won its past 7 matches by a combined 20-1. Real Madrid has already beaten third-place Atletico Madrid and fifth-place Real Betis, lone dropping points successful an unlucky 1-1 gully with Osasuna connected Oct. 2.

The stats backmost up astir of the form, too:

• Barcelona are archetypal successful goals scored, goals allowed and xG generated and 3rd successful xG allowed. Real Madrid are second, fifth, 2nd and second, respectively, successful those categories. It's arsenic if they person the 2 champion seasoned strikers successful the satellite oregon something. (Spoiler: They do.)

• Real Madrid effort the astir shots per possession and let the second-lowest xG per changeable successful defense; Barcelona mean the highest xG per changeable and allows the fewest shots per possession.

• Barcelona instrumentality 73% of their matches' wide touches successful the defenders' box, and Real Madrid instrumentality 67%; nary 1 other successful the league is implicit 61%.

• Real Madrid person scored the second-most goals from acceptable pieces (five). Barcelona person yet to allow immoderate goals from acceptable pieces.

The closest happening to a weakness either squad has shown successful the league frankincense acold is Real Madrid's passive defense: Los Blancos fertile sixth successful shots allowed per possession, and they fertile 14th successful allowing 12.8 passes per antiaircraft enactment (PPDA, a communal measurement of antiaircraft enactment levels). Of course, luring opponents distant from their ain extremity has besides worked to marque them conscionable astir the champion counter-attacking squad successful Europe; adjacent that expected weakness comes with a strength.

Mastering the modulation phase

There person been a fig of statistical shifts from past season. Real Madrid is attempting a higher measurement of shots, but astatine little prime (and with lone 39% of their shots coming from the defenders' box), portion their opponents are besides attempting lower-quality shots connected average. Barcelona is showing accrued antiaircraft energy, ranking 2nd successful PPDA and starting 10.6% of their possessions successful the attacking 3rd (also second). And if we're being honest, Barca's Marc-Andre ter Stegen has been redeeming shots astatine an unsustainably precocious rate: 96% to date. That mean volition travel down adjacent if Barca remains impeccably organized connected defence and ter Stegen maintains the champion signifier of his career. (Case successful point: His prevention percent successful 4 Champions League matches is lone 59%.)

- How to ticker El Clasico (U.S.)

Tactically, however, the astir absorbing alteration comes successful the modulation numbers.

Transition wasn't truly a happening past play successful LaLiga. In what I specify arsenic "transition possessions" -- possessions that statesman extracurricular of the attacking 3rd and past 20 oregon less seconds -- nary 1 averaged much than 0.4 goals per match. Meanwhile, fractional the Bundesliga (nine teams) averaged implicit 0.4, arsenic did much than one-third of the Premier League (seven teams).

Through 8 matches, Barca and Real Madrid person not lone brought backmost the modulation attack, they've besides transitioned arsenic good arsenic anyone successful Europe. (See the array for extremity differential crossed Europe's large 5 leagues.)

Barcelona has scored 9 specified goals -- including 3 from Robert Lewandowski, and 2 each from Ousmane Dembele and Ansu Fati -- and allowed conscionable one; Real Madrid has scored six specified goals, including 2 each from Vinicius Junior and Federico Valverde, and allowed none. These numbers unsocial relationship for astir of their wide changes successful extremity differential. Plus, neither squad attempts an overt magnitude of crosses, which tin necessitate much bodies further up the transportation and permission you unfastened to counterattacks. They permission the attacking to the attackers, which successful crook assists their modulation defense.

- Kirkland, Marsden: El Clasico signifier guide, cardinal questions

The information that Barca is pressing intensely and unleashing immense transitions says rather a spot astir the vigor they're expending astatine the moment; the gait of their play raises wide questions astir sustainability, particularly considering however hard their extent is getting deed by injuries astatine the moment. But they've held up frankincense acold -- successful league play, astatine slightest -- and winning transitions is an unfastened and evident cardinal to winning El Clasico.

One squad is overmuch much banged up than the other

Barca so added 7 high-class players to the squad this past summer, but portion 2 of them are healthy, first-choice starters (Lewandowski and Raphinha), the different 5 person averaged lone 324 minutes betwixt them successful each competitions, and 4 are presently battling injury.

Midfielder Franck Kessie was backmost connected the squad database for Wednesday's lucifer against Inter and played 18 minutes, but defenders Jules Kounde (Achilles), Andreas Christensen (ankle) and Hector Bellerin (calf) each remained out. Their respective statuses for El Clasico oscillate betwixt questionable and doubtful. Throw successful a semipermanent thigh wounded for center-back Ronald Araujo, and Barca is battling terrible extent issues astatine the back. That makes their antiaircraft occurrence to day adjacent much impressive, but a situation could loom erstwhile Ter Stegen's prevention percent begins to autumn backmost to earth.

Real Madrid isn't spotless from an wounded standpoint, but Los Blancos are so successful amended shape. Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois is expected back aft missing clip with a sciatic nervus problem, and striker Karim Benzema precocious returned to enactment aft missing a period with a thigh problem. Their biggest contented astatine the infinitesimal mightiness beryllium the presumption of center-back Antonio Rudiger, who took a nasty stroke to the face portion scoring a precocious extremity successful Tuesday's Champions League gully with Shakhtar Donetsk.

Without Rudiger, manager Carlo Ancelotti wouldn't person his top-choice lineup disposable to him, but helium is simply a batch person to having his than Barcelona's Xavi is astatine the moment.

Incredible midfields and matching 4-3-3s

Both Xavi and Ancelotti person elected to chiefly deploy 4-3-3 starting formations (four defenders, 3 midfielders, 3 forwards) this season. Xavi dabbled with a three-man defence successful August, portion Ancelotti deployed a 3-1-4-2 successful the Osasuna gully and much of a 4-2-3-1 against Shakhtar, but the 4-3-3 is the tried-and-true for both. Xavi stuck with it for astir of January's Supercopa de Espana loss, Barcelona's large March triumph and the clubs' July affable successful Las Vegas; Ancelotti did truthful successful January and July, and his effort to power things up -- to much of a 4-2-3-1, past a 4-2-4 successful desperation -- successful March backfired horribly.

So yeah, let's presume some teams instrumentality to the basics connected Sunday. They some play much centralized and blimpish 4-3-3s than what we've travel to expect from Liverpool and different large clubs; portion Liverpool's fullbacks person combined to make 29 chances successful league play this season, Barcelona's and Real Madrid's person combined for conscionable 30 betwixt them.

Instead, some teams effort to predominate done the middle. You astir apt would, too, if you had Luka Modric, Toni Kroos, Aurelien Tchouameni and Eduardo Camavinga (as Real Madrid does) oregon Pedri, Gavi, Sergio Busquets and Frenkie de Jong (as Barcelona does).

In all, 27% of Barcelona's touches successful the attacking 3rd person travel from the cardinal 3rd (second successful the league), arsenic person 26% of Real Madrid's (fourth). Pedri and Gavi person each created 13 chances, Kroos and Modric 11 each; Barca's midfielders play a spot much of a superior relation further up the pitch, but some groups permission astir of the last instauration steps to the 3 attackers up front.

How bash you relationship for Vinicius Junior?

Even the squad with the astir cardinal intentions successful the satellite volition inactive extremity up utilizing the perimeter a lot. And portion Barcelona achieves beauteous coagulated left-right balance, Real Madrid leans heavy toward the broadside of Vinicius Junior.

Vini Jr. is rather the halfway of gravity for Los Blancos, and it's helping unfastened up abstraction elsewhere successful opposing defenses. In fractional arsenic galore touches, 21-year aged close winger Rodrygo has generated astir arsenic galore combined goals and assists (five) arsenic Vinicius (six); the precocious stats much than backmost up his contributions, too: He's creating 0.80 combined xG and xA per 90 minutes to Vini's 0.65.

Rodrygo's accrued accumulation has been a large communicative for the defending European champions this year, but Vini is inactive the subordinate done which the onslaught runs. And with bully reason.

What to ticker aboriginal on

In large derbies, there's usually a feeling-out process aboriginal on, and it tin instrumentality a portion for 1 squad to asseverate an advantage. Even successful Barca's ascendant 4-0 triumph past March, they had attempted lone 5 shots (worth 0.48 xG) to Real Madrid's 4 (0.39 xG) successful the opening 25 minutes earlier the crippled lurched heavy successful their direction.

While we hold to spot who lands the opening salvo, however, determination are immoderate things we tin ticker that mightiness archer america who volition yet make the bigger advantages.

1. Who's looking much unsafe successful transition? Transition play has been truthful important to each team's aboriginal form. Do the teams cancel each different retired successful this regard? Is 1 squad uncovering unfastened spaces much easily?

Along akin lines ...

2. How is Barca attempting to power Vinicius Junior? In Barca's March blowout win, they were capable to mostly corral Vinicius, limiting him to conscionable 2 shots from region and chiefly shutting down Real Madrid's modulation crippled aft the opening fewer minutes. Granted, Benzema was hurt, which shifted the gravity successful evident ways, but a defence led by Araujo was capable to support up with him.

Now it's Barca dealing with injuries -- to Araujo and seemingly each different first-choice defender -- which means immoderate operation of Eric Garcia, veterans Gerard Pique and Sergi Roberto (yikes) and emerging teenage fullback Eric Balde (less yikes) volition person to not lone steer Vini retired of unsafe areas, but volition request to grip Benzema arsenic well. That's an awfully ample task.

3. Which midfield is controlling the action? In that 4-0 Barca win, their midfield simply did much than Real Madrid's, generating much touches (254 to 207), attempting and completing much passes (199-for-217 to 154-for-168), creating much chances (five to three) and securing much shot recoveries (17 to 15). And that was contempt Barca starring for 60 minutes. The much progressive and effectual midfield sends their squad toward a win.

4. Who's creating amended chances for their goal-scoring stars? Erling Haaland is rapidly establishing himself arsenic the champion goal-scorer successful the satellite -- hey, did you perceive helium mightiness person a merchandise clause and that Real Madrid mightiness effort to trigger it??? -- but Lewandowski and Benzema stay arsenic elite arsenic elite comes. In the past calendar year, they person combined for 89 goals successful 93 nine matches, and Benzema is the favourite to triumph this year's Ballon d'Or. Much of this portion was astir each the things that hap earlier they person the shot astatine their feet successful the box, but whoever finds much of those instances astir apt wins.

The sportsbooks are mostly listing a 3-goal over/under and listing Real Madrid arsenic a favourite by 0.25 goals (approximately home-field advantage). That's a escaped implied mean people of Real Madrid 1.6, Barca 1.4.

Barca's March romp ended a five-match derby winning streak for Real Madrid, and they scored astatine slightest 2 goals successful each of those 5 wins. We haven't had a nil-nil lucifer since 2019, and with the firepower astatine play here, we astir apt won't connected Sunday either.