Results: How small gains delivered a big win

Donald Trump has won the presidency of the United States, gaining a historical 2nd term.

Votes are inactive being counted, but a representation is emerging of what tipped the equilibrium successful Trump’s favour: comparatively tiny shifts successful enactment successful galore antithetic places.

The representation beneath shows successful reddish the states wherever Trump won. Kamala Harris’s victories are shown successful blue.

The plaything towards Trump happened crossed the country, arsenic shown successful the region level representation below, though counting continues successful galore states particularly successful the west.

Harris led by tens of thousands of votes successful large cities.

But Trump dominated the agrarian counties that prevarication betwixt them. His wins whitethorn not look to beryllium arsenic sizeable, but they are pervasive. And those margins adhd up.

In 2020, Joe Biden turned galore of Pennsylvania's counties Democrat bluish - peculiarly those adjacent the eastbound metropolis of Philadelphia. In 2024, voters look to person reversed their positions arsenic much votes successful the eastbound parts of the authorities went to Trump.

Around Georgia’s large metropolis of Atlanta, votes for Harris were higher than for Biden. But astir everyplace other went further red, the colour of the Republican party, and this representation could go clearer arsenic much votes are tallied.

In Wisconsin, Trump won by little than 1 percent constituent - conscionable implicit 28,000 votes astatine latest count.

It is hard to place a azygous radical oregon country successful the authorities that moved the needle towards Trump.

His stock of the ballot accrued by little than 5% successful each but a fistful of counties crossed the state, compared with 2020.

If you look astatine the representation beneath the alteration is astir imperceptible.

Harris did good successful the accepted Democratic municipality strongholds of Milwaukee and Madison; voters came retired for her successful ample numbers.

Yet it was Trump’s tiny but wide gains successful counties crossed the authorities that did the trick.

Trump has taken Nevada, the archetypal Republican triumph successful the occidental battleground since 2004.

In the ballot tally truthful far, determination has been small alteration among the largest groups of voters.

Black voters chose Harris successful akin numbers arsenic they did Biden, portion achromatic voters maintained their enactment for Trump.

Yet the exit canvass suggested Trump saw a important summation successful enactment among Hispanic and Asian voters, with Harris losing crushed compared with Biden 4 years ago.

Trump raised his stock among Hispanic voters successful Nevada by 13 points compared with 2020, which meant helium and Harris ended up successful a tie, some securing 48% of that vote.

He besides enjoyed a precise important plaything among Nevada’s Asian voters, from 35% successful 2020 to 50% successful 2024.

While the Asian assemblage accounts for conscionable 4% of voters surveyed, we’ve seen however likewise tiny shifts made the quality elsewhere.

While the representation successful the states that flipped volition go clearer successful the coming days, we tin spot immoderate emerging trends connected however antithetic groups of radical voted crossed the federation from US exit polls.

These chopped crossed demographic groups and regions.

On migration and the economy, Trump was seen arsenic the overwhelming favourite among voters for whom either was the astir important issue.

For voters who felt powerfully astir termination oregon the authorities of democracy, three-quarters oregon much voted for Harris.

This suggests a stark quality successful priorities crossed the 2 groups of voters.

Both campaigns emphasised these diverging issues successful caller weeks, and it’s wide the messaging chopped through.

The personalities of the candidates themselves whitethorn besides person played a relation successful however ballots were cast.

For those looking for a statesmanlike campaigner who would “bring needed change” to the country, a ample bulk voted for Trump. And two-thirds of those who astir valued enactment skills did the same.

A ample bulk of Harris voters chose her due to the fact that they felt she had bully judgement and “cared astir radical similar me”.

But the tendency for alteration tin beryllium a almighty unit erstwhile it comes to the mode voters take to formed their ballot.