Rosenberg: Putin's new red line on long-range missiles

The header successful this morning’s Kommersant paper captured the drama.

“Vladimir Putin draws his reddish line.”

Will the West transverse it? And, if it does, however volition Russia respond?

Speaking successful St Petersburg, President Putin sent a wide informing to the West: don’t let Ukraine to usage your long-range missiles to onslaught Russian territory.

Moscow, helium said, would presumption that arsenic the “direct participation” of Nato countries successful the warfare successful Ukraine.

“It would substantially alteration the precise essence, the quality of the conflict,” the Kremlin person continued.

“This volition mean that Nato countries, the USA and European states, are warring with Russia.”

He claimed that, for rocket launches into Russia, Ukraine would necessitate information from Western satellites and that lone servicemen from Nato subordinate states would beryllium capable to “input formation missions into these rocket systems”.

Russia has drawn reddish lines before. And seen them crossed before.

On 24 February 2022, erstwhile helium announced the commencement of his "special subject operation" – the full-scale penetration of Ukraine – President Putin issued a informing to “those who whitethorn beryllium tempted to interfere from the outside”.

“No substance who tries to basal successful our mode oregon make threats for our state and our people, they indispensable cognize that Russia volition respond immediately,” the Kremlin person had declared.

“And the consequences volition beryllium specified arsenic you person ne'er seen successful your full history.”

Western leaders ignored what was wide interpreted astatine the clip arsenic atomic sabre-rattling. The West has since provided Ukraine with tanks, precocious rocket systems and, astir recently, F-16 American combatant jets.

This twelvemonth Russia has already accused Ukraine of utilizing American long-range ATACMS missiles to people Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Russia.

What’s more, implicit the past 2 years, Russian officials and the authorities media present person connected galore occasions accused the West of “fighting Russia” oregon launching “a war” connected Russia. Even though it was Russia that invaded Ukraine.

But from the code of President Putin’s latest remarks, it’s wide helium considers that the targeting of internationally recognised Russian territory with Western rocket systems would instrumentality the struggle to a caller level.

What helium didn’t marque wide yesterday is however Moscow would respond.

“We volition instrumentality corresponding decisions based connected the threats to america that volition beryllium created,” Vladimir Putin said.

On Friday, Russia withdrew the accreditation of six British diplomats, accusing them of “subversive activities” and threatening Russia’s security.

But Putin’s imaginable effect is overmuch broader. He offered immoderate clues backmost successful June.

At a gathering with the heads of planetary quality agencies, helium was asked: however would Russia respond if Ukraine was fixed the accidental to deed targets connected Russian territory with weapons supplied by Europe?

“First, we will, of course, amended our aerial defence systems. We volition beryllium destroying their missiles,” President Putin replied.

“Second, we judge that if idiosyncratic is reasoning it is imaginable to proviso specified weapons to a warfare portion to onslaught our territory and make problems for us, wherefore can’t we proviso our weapons of the aforesaid people to those regions astir the satellite wherever they volition people delicate facilities of the countries that are doing this to Russia?”

In different words, arming Western adversaries to onslaught Western targets overseas is thing that Moscow has been considering.

Earlier this month, Russia’s lawman overseas minister, Sergei Ryabkov, announced that Russia was acceptable to revise its atomic doctrine: the papers that lays retired nether what circumstances Moscow whitethorn see utilizing atomic weapons.

He suggested that the determination to revise the doctrine was “connected with the escalation people of [Russia’s] Western adversaries”.

Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer is successful Washington for talks with President Biden. Among the issues the 2 leaders are expected to sermon is the question of Ukraine and long-range missiles.

“Russia started this conflict. Russia illegally invaded Ukraine,” Sir Keir said connected his mode to Washington. “Russia tin extremity this struggle consecutive away.”

Western leaders volition request to determine which they see greater: the hazard of escalation of this conflict, oregon the request to assistance restrictions connected Ukraine’s usage of occidental missiles.