Russia-Africa summit: Putin seeks to extend influence

When President Vladimir Putin opens the Russia-Africa acme successful St Petersburg connected Thursday, the attendance formed database volition beryllium intimately scrutinised - successful Paris, Washington, London, and astatine United Nations office successful New York.

But Africans volition presumption the lawsuit rather differently.

For Western overseas ministries fretting astir the Kremlin's declared ambition to grow its political, subject and economical footprint southbound of the Sahara, the gathering is an indicator of however acold Russia's power could present widen and wherever it volition conscionable a affable welcome.

Unlike the erstwhile Russia-Africa acme successful 2019, attended by 43 African leaders, this clip lone 17 are expected successful St Petersburg .

But which of them volition instrumentality salient speaking roles successful the summit? What deals volition beryllium struck with Mr Putin?

European and US policymakers until precocious saw China arsenic their main rival successful Africa - but present find themselves observing with heavy unease Russia's assertive return, epitomised by the beingness of Wagner mercenaries successful Mali, the Central African Republic (CAR), Libya and, briefly, bluish Mozambique.

And of course, the penetration of Ukraine has dramatically heightened Western mistrust of Russia's ambitions astir the world.

Yet small suggests that African leaders stock this perspective. Most countries connected the continent, adjacent those that person regularly voted astatine the UN to condemn the onslaught connected Ukraine and its impact, bash not privation to get drawn into taking sides successful a caller "Cold War" oregon go pawns successful a tussle for planetary power and powerplays.

In immoderate case, Russia is conscionable 1 of respective large actors present stepping up efforts to tribunal governmental and economical power successful Africa - alongside not lone China, but besides India, Turkey, the Gulf states, South Korea and, of course, Western nations and Japan.

Having sometimes struggled successful the past to mobilise planetary assistance successful tackling their improvement and information challenges, African governments are not spurning these overtures.

And Russia knows this. In the run-up to the summit, its officials promised a caller programme of enactment for the continent.

The acme docket includes an "economic and humanitarian forum" and African concern figures person been invited; the Kremlin promises a raft of agreements connected trade, investment, technological and method cooperation. In pursuing this agenda, Russia whitethorn beryllium capable to physique connected the world and probe ties developed during the Cold War era, erstwhile galore Africans studied astatine Soviet universities.

Whatever the statesmanlike turnout, fewer governments volition really snub the summit.

But that does not mean astir participants volition attack St Petersburg with an uncritical mindset - adjacent if diplomatic politeness prevents them from speaking frankly.

Last month's African leaders' bid ngo to Russia and Ukraine was blunt successful telling Mr Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky that the warfare should beryllium ended, for the involvement of the remainder of the world.

And Moscow volition hardly person bolstered goodwill by its determination to wantonness the statement for the harmless export of some Ukrainian and Russian atom done Black Sea ports, adjacent if Mr Putin has pledged to marque up that shortfall.

That promises to thrust up nutrient prices successful galore African countries, perchance fuelling municipality protestation and governmental unit connected the leaders.

Mali - a loyal state these days, its ruling junta partially reliant connected Wagner's men to support jihadist forces astatine bay - claims to beryllium receiving a peculiar shipment of Russian grain.

But it is hard to ideate that Mr Putin could supply specified hefty bilateral assistance to much than a clutch of adjacent allies.

Most African atom consumers volition person to proceed relying connected the unfastened satellite marketplace - wherever supplies are present tightening and prices are connected the rise.

Mr Putin is good alert of this diplomatic fallout. Could helium beryllium waiting for the acme to possibly connection a supposedly magnanimously instrumentality to the atom deal, connected somewhat tweaked terms?

That's not the lone delicate contented connected the agenda.

Displaced from Russia aft his caller mutiny, Wagner brag Yevgeny Prigozhin precocious promised his men an expanded absorption connected African operations.

Despite his evident falling retired with Mr Putin, this would surely assistance the Kremlin's thrust to widen its capableness to power African events, peculiarly successful the hugely fragile Sahel portion - wherever Niger's President Mohamed Bazoum has been facing a fresh subject uprising oregon coup attempt.

When Wagner moved into the CAR aft President Faustin Archange Touadéra sought Russian assistance to flooded a UN arms embargo and rebuild his service successful 2017-18, this astatine archetypal looked similar a bid for attention, aimed to nonstop the connection that "Moscow is back" aft much than 2 decades of a debased illustration aft the illness of the Soviet Union.

But by the clip Wagner arrived successful Mali successful 2021, astatine the invitation of the soldiers who had seized powerfulness the twelvemonth before, the relation played by this backstage subject contractor successful Russia's information agenda, was viewed with a bully woody much mistrust.

Most different West African governments saw it arsenic a nonstop menace to the information of their region. Their relations with Mali soured dramatically.

And the subject coups that followed successful Guinea and Burkina Faso, with pro-Russian youths cheering successful the streets of the latter's superior Ouagadougou, person lone deepened elected African governments' wariness of Moscow's strategy.

But that does not mean they volition disregard this week's summit.

Instead, they volition astir apt effort to nudge the Kremlin towards a much accepted way of cooperative engagement, and distant from enactment for the destabilisation of law authorities and towards much accepted subject partnerships done grooming and the proviso of instrumentality and weapons.

And Russia volition effort to unafraid their goodwill done a continuation of its economical diplomacy.

While it lacks the resources to vie with the US, France, Germany and Japan oregon China arsenic a bilateral improvement donor, Moscow does person immoderate cards to play.

Last twelvemonth it was astir apt Africa's largest root of fertiliser, supplying 500,000 tonnes. It is besides of people a important powerfulness successful oil, state and mining.

But the critically urgent commercialized assemblage close present remains grain.

And it volition beryllium hard for Russia to importantly assistance Africa with desperately needed other supplies - and frankincense show its reliability arsenic a spouse - unless determination is simply a restored Black Sea woody that besides allows Ukrainian shipments to flow.

Earlier this week, Mr Putin claimed Russia had shipped adjacent to 10 cardinal tonnes of atom to Africa successful the archetypal fractional of this twelvemonth and insisted that it was capable to proceed supplying the continent connected some a commercialized ground and escaped of charge.

A large boost successful nutrient assistance would people a crisp alteration of stance from a state that has been lone a marginal humanitarian donor up to now.

However, adjacent if arrangements to vessel retired safely from Black Sea ports are restored, determination is small to suggest Moscow is truly consenting and organised to go a large nutrient assistance donor connected a standard to comparison with the likes of the European Union oregon the US.

The governmental discourse has dramatically changed since African leaders flew to Sochi for the archetypal Russia-Africa acme backmost successful 2019.

Over the past 3 years, seemingly fuelled by a tendency to unsettle France and different Western actors, the Kremlin has appeared astatine slightest tacitly sympathetic towards the subject men who person seized powerfulness successful Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea and who are viewed by the leaders of neighbouring states arsenic a menace to determination stability.

The Malian regime's insistence that the UN retreat its peacekeeping force, weakening the defence against spreading jihadist violence, has lone deepened determination leaders' interest - and their consequent wariness of Russian policy.

So adjacent with a hefty goodwill boost to Russia atom shipments, Mr Putin whitethorn conflict to allay wide West African mistrust, though his guests volition beryllium excessively discreet to explicit it.

Paul Melly is simply a consulting chap with the Africa Programme astatine Chatham House successful London.