Russia’s ability to mount Kyiv offensive questioned by analysts - Al Jazeera English

Ukrainian commander-in-chief General Valeriy Zaluzhny said helium expected a caller Russian battle connected Kyiv successful aboriginal 2023.

Despite the Ukrainian superior suffering one of the largest rocket attacks since the opening of the Russian penetration successful February, analysts uncertainty that Moscow is susceptible of mounting a caller crushed violative against Kyiv aboriginal adjacent twelvemonth arsenic Russian forces stay ill-prepared and severely battered aft 10 months of warfare.

Ukrainian officials said connected Friday that Kyiv withstood “one of the biggest rocket attacks” it has faced since Russia invaded Ukraine and that Ukrainian aerial defence had changeable down 37 of astir 40 missiles that entered the city’s airspace.

The caput of the Ukrainian equipped forces said they intercepted 60 of 76 missiles launched astatine infrastructure targets successful cities crossed the country. Russian forces fired cruise missiles from the Admiral Makarov frigate successful the Black Sea, portion Kh-22 cruise missiles were fired from long-range Tu-22M3 bombers implicit the Sea of Azov, Ukraine’s aerial unit said.

Ukrainian commander-in-chief General Valeriy Zaluzhny besides said this week that helium expected a caller Russian battle connected Kyiv successful the archetypal months of 2023.

“The Russians are preparing immoderate 200,000 caller troops. I person nary uncertainty they volition person different spell astatine Kyiv,” Zaluzhny told The Economist magazine.

A large Russian onslaught could travel “in February, astatine champion successful March and astatine worst astatine the extremity of January”, helium said.

Although Russia mobilised 300,000 reservists betwixt September and October, subject experts accidental that Moscow’s caller troops are improbable to beryllium sufficiently trained oregon equipped to effort different storming of Kyiv. Moscow’s archetypal effort successful February and March ended successful humiliation, acknowledgment to fierce antiaircraft efforts by Ukraine coupled with important supply, quality and bid problems successful the Russian ranks.

“Such an violative does not look precise probable to me, but it’s not intolerable astatine the aforesaid time,” autarkic Russian subject expert Alexander Khamchikhin told AFP quality agency.

Discussing Russian capabilities recently, US subject adept Michael Kofman besides judged Russia’s quality to equine an violative arsenic a “rather improbable scenario”.

“They person important ammunition constraints and the Russian military’s show present is precise intimately tied to the availability of artillery ammunition fires,” Kofman told the War connected the Rocks podcast.

The White House besides doubts that Moscow has the quality to equine a counterattack focused connected Kyiv.

“We aren’t seeing immoderate denotation that there’s an imminent determination connected Kyiv,” White House spokesperson John Kirby said.

Sergey Surovikin’s estimation for ruthlessness

Russia’s aboriginal subject capabilities successful Ukraine volition depend mostly connected caller commandant Sergey Surovikin, a seasoned of Moscow’s wars since the Soviet penetration of Afghanistan. The shaven-headed wide with a estimation for ruthlessness has been tasked with integrating the recently drafted soldiers and regenerating Russia’s severely damaged combat units.

General Sergey Surovikin, commandant of Russian forces successful Ukraine [Russian Defence Ministry/handout via Reuters]

Australian wide Mick Ryan stressed that Surovikin was besides moving connected unifying Russia’s fractured bid strategy and trying to amended integrate aerial enactment with crushed operations.

“Surovikin commands an service that suffers from debased morale and keeps losing its radical and champion equipment,” Ryan wrote successful the Foreign Policy magazine. “So far, grounds suggests that the troops Russia has mobilized to regenerate the dormant and injured are not receiving the benignant of demanding grooming they request to succeed.”

He warned, however, that the Siberia-born Russian subject commandant was “almost surely drafting up conflict plans that are intelligibly focused, dissimilar past assaults that dispersed Russia’s troops thin”.

Any onslaught connected Kyiv would beryllium immensely analyzable and the metropolis would beryllium astir intolerable to seizure without destroying it.

“Taking a metropolis without demolition is difficult, isolated from cases wherever determination is simply a determination to surrender, specified arsenic successful Paris successful 1940,” Khamchikhin said.

Pascal Ausseur, manager of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies, a France-based think-tank, said helium believed the Ukrainian claims of an imminent violative were an effort to ore minds successful Western capitals.

“The Ukrainians are shouting ‘keep helping us, don’t fto america down’,” Ausseur told AFP. “These statements are destined for the West to accidental ‘we tin inactive suffer everything’.”

They mightiness besides beryllium a diversion maneuver arsenic Ukraine looks to spell connected the onslaught successful the southeast arsenic the crushed freezes successful mid-winter, making it easier for vehicles to question off-road, helium said.

“I would find it unusual for the Ukrainians to enactment themselves successful antiaircraft positions which would halt them launching violative operations earlier March,” Ausseur added.