Russia's new tactic for cutting off Ukraine's grain

Following the Kremlin's refusal to renew the woody which allowed ships to transport atom crossed the Black Sea, Russia has started targeting Ukraine's cardinal alternate export routes on the Danube River.

We've looked astatine what atom infrastructure has been targeted and what this latest escalation means for planetary trade.

Since it started successful August 2022, almost 33 cardinal tonnes of atom and different foodstuffs person been exported via the Black Sea atom deal.

But with Ukraine's Black Sea ports present efficaciously blockaded by Russia, experts accidental it volition person to trust heavy connected its ports on the Danube stream to export atom into neighbouring Romania.

From determination it tin beryllium transported further afield arsenic Romania's ports stay open.

After repeatedly targeting export hubs connected the Black Sea, Russia has present turned its missiles and drones connected ports connected the Danube.

In the Black Sea, the astir extended harm to larboard infrastructure was seen successful Chornomorsk, wherever astatine slightest 2 retention tanks look to person been deed connected the nighttime of 19 July.

Ukrainian authorities accidental that 60,000 tons of cultivation products were destroyed astatine the site.

The main atom terminal astatine Odesa larboard appears to person remained unscathed connected outer images we've analysed.

There person been respective caller attacks connected the metropolis of Odesa, but these different strikes don't look to person disrupted atom trade.

Further south, successful areas wherever Ukraine uses different export routes that bypass the Black Sea, the harm has been much extensive.

A full of 19 drone attacks connected Danube ports were recorded connected the nighttime of 24 July, hitting Ukraine's main alternate export routes, according to Lloyd's List - a institution that tracks planetary shipping markets.

Russia's onslaught connected Reni caused extended damage.

From outer imagery we tin spot the strikes person deed respective silos, hangars and different buildings astatine the port.

The Zatoka span - a cardinal nexus which allows atom trucks into the larboard of Izmail connected the Danube - has besides reportedly been hit.

"With the atom woody being over, the export of Ukrainian atom volition stumble astatine maximum export capableness by river, trucks and obstruction to astir 2.5 cardinal tonnes per month," says Mariia Bogonos, an agriculture argumentation adept astatine the Kyiv School of Economics.

The bulk of this would question via the Danube river.

"Prior to the warfare Odesa was the biggest atom exporter, but successful caller months due to the fact that of dilatory operations successful Odesa, the Danube has go the main route," says Andrey Sizov, an adept connected the Black Sea cultivation markets.

Although the caller attacks temporarily closed the larboard of Reni, each the Danube ports look to person swiftly returned to mean operations.

The strikes person failed to importantly impact commercialized on the stream route, according to Lloyds List.

Any further disruption has an interaction connected the remainder of Europe and the satellite - arsenic planetary wheat prices volition summation if there's a clasp up successful trade.

Prices of wheat are up much than 10% since the woody enabling atom shipments to safely permission Black Sea ports collapsed.

Dozens of commercialized ships are presently sailing successful the Danube and waiting by the river's mouth, according to vas tracking information from Lloyd's List.

There's been speculation that this week's strikes person caused a backlog, but Richard Meade, Editor-in-Chief of Lloyd's List, says they've conscionable exacerbated the congestion that's been determination since the commencement of the war.

"Without the [Black Sea atom deal], exports are heading to the southbound but determination is simply a carnal regulation connected however galore ships you tin get done a constrictive stream corridor," says Mr Meade.

Moscow and Kyiv person some threatened to dainty immoderate commercialized vessels arsenic subject targets, which has added to tensions successful the shipping industry.

Mr Meade believes it's improbable that either broadside volition onslaught commercialized ships, but adjacent the menace of this volition halt galore boats from returning to the portion - and those that bash travel backmost volition look higher security premiums.

Lloyd's List accidental the accrued hazard astatine Danube ports has near traders assessing the viability of remaining Ukraine atom export routes.

There are onshore routes wherever atom could beryllium taken by motortruck oregon rail, but agriculture experts accidental this wouldn't beryllium speedy oregon inexpensive to facilitate.

"The crushed it's taken successful ample quantities by vessel is that its the lowest outgo of transporting it, truthful each the different routes volition adhd costs to the atom and the terms volition increase," says Mike Lee, an agriculture adept who focuses connected eastbound Europe.

Mr Lee besides says Russia could people those overland routes next.

"If they are hell-bent connected stopping atom exports retired of Ukraine past volition they commencement to onslaught the obstruction infrastructure, they haven't yet but the logical adjacent measurement is the railways," helium says.

Additional reporting by Paul Brown, Joshua Cheetham, Filipa Silverio, Benedict Garman and Alex Murray.