Russia’s Nuclear Weapons Rhetoric: How Concerned Should We Be? - The New York Times

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia began ramping up his atomic rhetoric this fall, raising the specter that helium could usage specified a limb successful Ukraine. As Mr. Putin was making threats, elder Russian generals were discussing the circumstances erstwhile they mightiness perchance usage a tactical atomic weapon, The New York Times reported.

American officials said they person seen nary question of Russian atomic weapons and bash not judge that the Russian authorities has decided to detonate specified a device. But arsenic Russia suffers setbacks connected the battlefield, adjacent speech astir utilizing 1 has raised alarm.

How acrophobic should we be?

Russia has arsenic galore arsenic 2,000 tactical atomic weapons, lower-yield devices designed to decision accepted forces connected the battlefield. A tactical atomic limb has ne'er been utilized successful combat, but 1 could beryllium deployed successful a fig of ways, including by rocket oregon artillery shell.

The likelihood that Mr. Putin volition usage a atomic limb remains exceedingly low. But the imaginable of adjacent a tiny atomic instrumentality going disconnected is truthful unspeakable that officials successful the United States and elsewhere are concerned. Thousands of radical could beryllium killed, and millions sickened.

Those concerns person risen with the Russian rhetoric and with U.S. quality astir the discussions among elder generals.

“When the person of a modern atomic power, arsenic Mr. Putin is, talks arsenic recklessly and irresponsibly, arsenic helium has been doing, astir the imaginable usage of atomic weapons successful Ukraine, you’ve got to instrumentality it seriously,” John F. Kirby, a National Security Council official, told reporters connected Wednesday. “And we’ve been taking this earnestly since the precise beginning.”

Noting Mr. Putin’s notation to America’s determination to driblet atomic bombs connected Hiroshima and Nagasaki to extremity World War II, Mr. Kirby said Russia’s actions were progressively unsettling.

“We person maintained, I believe, an due level of interest astir the imaginable usage of weapons of wide demolition successful Ukraine, to see atomic weapons,” Mr. Kirby said.

Could Russia conscionable beryllium trying to rattle the West?

American officials said it was wholly imaginable that the nationalist rhetoric and backstage conversations among Russian officials were meant to rise fears successful Washington.

The discussions, according to existent and erstwhile officials, could beryllium little astir existent readying and much astir deterring the West from expanding its assistance to Ukraine.

Michael McFaul, the erstwhile U.S. ambassador, said conversations astir the usage of atomic weapons should marque everyone nervous.

But Russia mightiness partially beryllium trying to discourage the United States from sending Ukraine precocious weapons similar the Army Tactical Missile System, a longer-range limb known arsenic ATACMS. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine wants the weapons, and immoderate erstwhile U.S. subject officials deliberation supplying them would dramatically assistance the Ukrainian service enactment Russian targets and proviso depots astatine risk.

Mr. McFaul said that conscionable by talking astir atomic weapons, the Russian person was “achieving a applicable subject objective.”

The Biden medication has supplied Ukraine with billions of dollars successful weapons, which person changed the people of the war, but it has held disconnected giving Kyiv longer-range missiles, tanks and combatant planes.

“The Pentagon is not sending ATACMS,” Mr. McFaul told The New York Times. “The Pentagon is not sending MIG-29s. They’re not sending tanks. They are being deterred by Putin.”

Is Russia trying to unit Ukraine to negotiate?

It is incredibly improbable that Russia would usage a tactical atomic weapon, said Frederick B. Hodges, a retired lieutenant wide and erstwhile apical U.S. Army commandant successful Europe. While the Soviet Red Army had warfare plans that progressive utilizing atomic weapons connected a battlefield and exploiting the results, Russia does not person trained troops who could instrumentality vantage of specified a strike.

“Their atomic weapons are astir utile to them erstwhile they don’t usage them,” General Hodges said. “There’s conscionable nary battlefield vantage astatine each to usage immoderate atomic weapon.”

Instead, Russian leaders anticipation atomic threats volition beryllium capable to unit Ukraine into diplomatic talks and to marque concessions that Russia has failed to triumph connected the battlefield.

“They are trying to enactment unit connected Ukraine to negociate and cave successful to the Kremlin’s demands,” General Hodges said.

Russia wants Ukraine to concede ample areas of the state that Mr. Putin illegally annexed aft sham referendums this twelvemonth and successful 2014, erstwhile Russian forces moved into Crimea.

But General Hodges said Russia’s attempts to marque Ukraine cede territory would fail. And Ukrainians, helium added, simply bash not judge Russia volition usage a atomic weapon.

Could Vladimir Putin beryllium trying to power his ain public?

Russia’s efforts to grow conscription and mobilize much of its population to combat successful Ukraine person been unpopular. And done overmuch of October, Russian attitudes toward a atomic warfare were trending negative, according to Jonathan Teubner, the main enforcement of FilterLabs, a institution that has been tracking nationalist sentiment successful Russia.

But nationalist sentiment shifted aft Mr. Putin and different Russian officials began talking astir unfounded allegations that Ukraine was going to detonate a “dirty bomb,” a munition designed to dispersed radioactive material. Many Western governments saw the soiled weaponry allegations arsenic an effort to make a pretext for Russia to detonate a atomic weapon.

“Since the soiled weaponry narrative, we person detected a important summation successful enactment for utilizing atomic weapons if necessary,” Mr. Teubner said.

Russian enactment for conscription flagged aft the mobilization was announced successful September, but Mr. Putin’s rhetoric astir soiled bombs created a “rally-around-the-flag effect,” Mr. Teubner said.

Most disturbing, helium said, the biggest displacement his steadfast had detected by tracking discussions connected online forums and societal media was successful the sentiment toward utilizing a atomic weapon.