Russia's shrinking sphere of influence - Axios

Russian President Vladimir Putin (C) and the leaders of his CSTO allies astatine the Kremlin successful May. From left: Armenia's Nikol Pashinyan; Belarus' Alexsandr Lukashenko (back row); Putin, Kazakhstan's Kassym-Jomart Tokayev; Kyrgyzstan's Sadyr Japarov (back right) and Tajikistan's Emomali Rahmon. Photo: Getty Images.

One of Russia's astir salient TV hosts fumed this week astatine what helium saw arsenic an enactment of defiance from allies successful the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Russia's reply to NATO.

Driving the news: While Belarus voted against a UN solution calling connected Russia to pay Ukraine warfare reparations, Russia's different 4 pact allies — Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan — each abstained.

• "NATO countries person each lined up, looking astatine [President] Biden with adoring eyes," TV big Vladimir Solovyov lamented. "What bash we have?"

The large picture: Central Asian countries person cautiously distanced themselves from Moscow since the penetration of Ukraine.

• At caller determination summits, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon demanded much "respect," and Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov kept Vladimir Putin waiting earlier a meeting, Nikkei Asia reports.
• But obscurity is the displacement much notable than successful Kazakhstan, which shares the second-longest onshore borderline with Russia and has retained adjacent links with Moscow since the illness of the USSR.

Meanwhile: Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who is expected to triumph a caller seven-year word successful elections this weekend, has repeatedly refused to backmost Russia's invasion.

• In June, helium went truthful acold arsenic to declare — portion sharing a signifier with Putin — that Kazakhstan respected "territorial integrity" and would not travel Russia successful recognizing the independency of Luhansk and Donetsk successful eastbound Ukraine.
• Kazakhstan canceled a parade successful May marking the Soviet triumph implicit the Nazis, officially for fund reasons. Astana besides banned subject symbols similar the "Z" displayed by backers of the invasion.

The different side: Another Russian TV host, Tigran Keosayan, fumed aft those moves that if Kazakhstan thought it could "get away" with specified "ingratitude," it should "look astatine what is happening successful Ukraine."

• Former President Dmitry Medvedev's relationship connected Russia's VK societal network posted and past deleted a assertion that the “artificial state” of Kazakhstan was committing a “genocide” against its Russian minority. Medvedev aboriginal claimed to person been hacked. Other elder politicians person made akin statements.
• In June, a Russian tribunal ordered the pipeline done which 80% of Kazakhstan's lipid exports travel to the Black Sea to halt operations owed to the hazard of spills — though galore speculated the existent crushed was to punctual Kazakhstan of its reliance connected Russia.
• The order reportedly upset China, which has invested heavy successful Kazakhstan and benefits from a unchangeable lipid market. It was soon reversed.

State of play: Kazakhstan is moving to diversify its export routes and has hosted the presidents of China, Turkey and the European Council each successful the past 2 months — a motion that the world's 10th largest lipid exporter has options.

• "In bid to proceed to pull overseas nonstop investment, it is important that Kazakhstan not beryllium lumped unneurotic with Russia," Annette Bohr, a Eurasia expert astatine Chatham House, said astatine a caller sheet discussion.

• The Ukraine penetration besides sparked fears successful the wide nationalist that Kazakhstan could beryllium next, added Bhavna Dave, a Central Asia adept astatine the University of London. Just this week, a performance successful Almaty by Russian vocalist Polina Gagarina was canceled aft online protests implicit her enactment for the war.

A elder Kazakh authoritative told Reuters that if Tokayev wins easy connected Sunday, helium could further region himself from Moscow.

• That's a singular crook of events little than a twelvemonth aft Russia sent troops to assistance Tokayev enactment down a convulsive uprising.
• Yes, but: Kazakhstan and different countries successful Central Asia are inactive heavy reliant connected Russia. Around 40% of the nutrient and covering sold successful Kazakhstan comes from Russia, and the Kremlin tin inactive clasp Kazakhstan's vigor exports hostage, notes the Carnegie Endowment's Temur Umarov.

Zoom out: The UN ballot that infuriated Solovyov besides underscored that Russia has partners acold beyond the post-Soviet space. China voted with Russia, arsenic did Iran and North Korea, which are reportedly providing weapons for Russia's warfare effort.

• Among the different yes votes were 5 African countries, including 2 — Central African Republic and Mali — that are hosting Russian mercenaries.