By Jeremy Bowen
BBC News, Mykolaiv
The metropolis of Kherson connected the Black Sea seashore was the biggest prize seized by Russia successful the archetypal period aft its penetration connected 24 February. Now determination are suggestions that Russia mightiness beryllium astir to springiness up astatine slightest portion of it arsenic it prepares antiaircraft lines for the winter.
Kherson, its suburbs and outlying villages are dispersed implicit some banks of the mighty Dnipro, 1 of Europe's large rivers. In the past fewer days Western officials person briefed journalists to expect a partial Russian withdrawal from the occidental broadside of Kherson.
The officials said Russian commanders could beryllium preparing to propulsion backmost to the much defensible eastbound broadside of the river, besides known present arsenic the near bank, taking vantage of its qualities arsenic a formidable earthy obstacle.
Since the summertime Ukraine has tally a media violative astir its plans to recapture Kherson. It telegraphed the announcement of its subject plans truthful intelligibly that immoderate analysts decided it was a feint to screen a accelerated and palmy violative that recaptured a sizeable magnitude of territory successful north-east Ukraine.
On the crushed present successful the southwest of this large country, Ukraine's subject violative has been overmuch much cautious. The Ukrainians are precise superior astir recapturing Kherson.
President Volodymyr Zelensky needs a triumph - not conscionable for the morale of his citizens, but to reassure his allies that this is simply a warfare Ukraine tin win. But the ambitions of the governmental and subject enactment person collided with the stark realities of pushing the Russians back.
After spending respective days this week connected the Ukrainian lines astir the Kherson perimeter, interviewing front-line soldiers arsenic good arsenic elder officers, it is wide that the men who person to combat successful southwest Ukraine person learnt the hard mode that the Russians stay a formidable enemy.
On the beforehand enactment betwixt Mykolaiv and Kherson a Ukrainian soldier, a section antheral who said his sanction was Ilya, puffed connected a abdominous cigar arsenic Russian shells targeted his unit's position. He had bushy hairsbreadth and a acheronian beard and revelled successful a definite resemblance to Cuban revolutionary Che Guevara.
"It's precise hard to marque advancement here. It is indispensable to ore a ample magnitude of unit successful 1 constituent to interruption done the beforehand line. Our occupation is to clasp our position. We onslaught from clip to clip truthful that they don't instrumentality their reserves and transportation them determination else."
"It is precise hard and slow-going. They power the sky. They've got overmuch much subject equipment, much radical and much ammunition.
"Their radical are not trained, but they conscionable spell consecutive guardant shouting 'hurrah'. We don't person arsenic galore cartridges arsenic they person people."
Casualties are different factor. Both Russia and Ukraine person suffered tens of thousands of dormant and wounded. Precise figures are not available. Neither broadside wants to admit the harm caused by the other.
But connected the Ukrainian broadside the service contains thousands of national volunteers. Commanders request to support the men they person successful uniform. They bash not privation to suffer immoderate much experience, and are conscious that dense casualties are atrocious for nationalist morale.
Ukraine is simply a large country, but it has a colonisation of little than 40 million. The antheral colonisation is already highly mobilised.
On the beforehand enactment a large who called himself "Fougasse" toured his men's trenches and dugouts. When asked astir the speech of an offensive, helium was cautious.
"Moving guardant and a counter-offensive is analyzable to program for, and it's a menace to people's lives. We person to instrumentality relationship of everything. That's our occupation arsenic commanders, to support our men alive."
Ukraine has made progress. Since aboriginal September it has recaptured respective 100 quadrate kilometres of the Kherson administrative region. On the borderline of 1 colony a rusty watermelon motion was pitted with shrapnel holes. In amended times the country was celebrated successful Ukraine for producing the fruit.
The warring often leaves villages successful ruins. Ukraine says the Russians effort to flatten houses with shellfire aft they are forced out. The fewer villagers who had travel backmost to survey their spot successful 1 tiny assemblage I visited had a antithetic story. They said a batch of harm to their homes was caused during the Ukrainian combat to eject the Russians. Almost nary extortion was intact.
In the ruins of the bureau of the determination politician successful Mykolaiv which was destroyed successful a immense Russian rocket onslaught successful March, Maj Gen Dymytro Marchenko called what was happening successful the level farmland of Kherson Oblast the conflict of the villages - tactical fights connected a section scale. "We're trying to instrumentality positions that we request for the counteroffensive. We are not lasting still. Every time we recapture a village," helium said.
But Gen Marchenko, who became a leader successful the southwest successful the archetypal months of the warfare erstwhile helium led the combat to halt the Russians advancing beyond Kherson towards Mykolaiv and Odesa, said it would beryllium a overmuch harder undertaking to ore capable unit to interruption the Russian enactment and to equine an battle crossed the Dnipro nether the Russian guns.
"For a due counteroffensive we request to person the required fig of personnel, weapons and equipment. As soon arsenic we get each this, a counteroffensive volition instrumentality place.
"First of all, we request reactive artillery that tin deed up to 300km (180 miles) from us. And we request an aerial defence strategy - basics for immoderate service successful the satellite that wants to spell connected the offensive."
For present the large prize, Kherson itself, remains successful the hands of Russia. Throughout the autumn, Russia has reinforced its positions there. Gen Kyrylo Budanov, caput of Ukraine's directorate of subject intelligence, said successful a caller interrogation that Kherson was defended by Russia's champion units, from the marines, and airborne and peculiar forces.
It is hard to spot wherefore Russia would propulsion retired of immoderate portion of Kherson unless it was nether terrible subject pressure.
The connection from the beforehand lines is that portion Ukraine is taking villages successful the large pouch Russia captured connected the westbound broadside of the Dnipro river, it does not person the combat powerfulness to interruption done well-prepared Russian positions into Kherson city.
That mightiness change, arsenic much almighty weapons get from the US and Ukraine's different allies successful Nato.
Some Ukrainian sources person dismissed reports that the Russians could beryllium pulling backmost from portion of Kherson arsenic a ruse to gully them into a rash attack. It is possible, however, that the Russian bid mightiness determine that the enactment of the Dnipro River is the champion earthy defence available, particularly arsenic its forces connected the occidental slope travel nether much pressure.
It is not astatine each certain, based connected their subject show truthful acold successful this war, that the Russians person the capableness to equine a warring retreat implicit the Dnipro. Ukraine's service has proved itself to beryllium flexible and competent successful a mode that the Russians are not, and would surely propulsion guardant if it saw Russia pulling back.
Another origin is the interaction of Iranian munitions. Military sources present interest that Iran mightiness proviso much almighty drones oregon missiles than the ones that truthful acold person shown themselves to beryllium effectual weapons. That would enactment Mykolaiv, the metropolis down the seashore from Kherson, nether much pressure.
Attacking cities means sidesplitting the civilians who are successful the firing line.
This week Mykolaiv has been deed by the Russians, not often but regularly. One greeting an aged pistillate called Liubov Levhenivna looked connected arsenic men cleared plasterboard and rubble from the remains of her home. A neighbour was killed successful the raid.
She had conscionable returned from hospital, aft large surgery. Liubov's 2 sons are successful the army. One is successful hospital, aft being earnestly wounded connected the Kherson front. The different is warring successful Donbas, successful the east.
"I americium alone" she said. "After the operation, I don't cognize however I tin header with it each alone."
Right crossed Ukraine, radical similar Liubov, who person precise little, are losing everything.
Russia's maneuver of hitting powerfulness supplies is hurting the Ukrainians. In Mykolaiv, Russia has damaged the h2o system. Tap h2o is yellowish and brackish. Civilians who cannot spend bottled h2o for drinking and cooking person to queue for h2o that is brought successful by tanker.
Long months of a wintertime warfare prevarication ahead.