Scottish independence: Will there be a second referendum?

The UK Supreme Court has ruled that the Scottish authorities cannot clasp an independency referendum without UK government's consent.

Yes, successful September 2014, erstwhile Scottish voters were fixed the prime of staying successful the UK oregon becoming an autarkic country.

They backed staying the UK by 55% to 45%.

In truth, it has ne'er truly gone away.

Ms Sturgeon called for different referendum - "indyref2" - instantly aft the UK arsenic a full voted to permission the EU successful the 2016 Brexit referendum. Scottish voters backed stay by 62% by 38%.

Independence supporters argued that Scotland should instrumentality its aboriginal into its ain hands, and nary longer beryllium tied to the UK and its Conservative government.

Since past Ms Sturgeon has made repeated attempts to propulsion for different ballot but determination has been nary statement with the UK government.

The SNP presently has a pro-independence bulk successful the devolved parliament alongside the Scottish Greens. It argues that its electoral occurrence - coupled with the Brexit ballot - mean it has a "cast-iron mandate" to clasp different referendum.

But the UK authorities has made wide it has nary volition of granting ceremonial consent for a referendum done what is known arsenic a Section 30 order.

This was enactment successful spot up of the 2014 referendum. Many - but not each - experts judge specified a mechanics would beryllium needed again to guarantee immoderate ballot is legal.

Ms Sturgeon wrote to the past Prime Minister Boris Johnson earlier this twelvemonth saying she wants a akin statement this time, but he said no.

The UK authorities argues that the 2014 referendum was, successful Ms Sturgeon's ain words astatine the time, a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

The UK authorities has accused the SNP of failing to springiness wide answers to cardinal questions connected issues specified arsenic currency and pensions successful an autarkic Scotland. It warns immoderate effort by Scotland to rejoin the EU would pb to a hard borderline betwixt the 2 countries.

Ministers besides accidental Ms Sturgeon and her authorities should beryllium focusing connected betterment from the Covid pandemic and improving nationalist services similar wellness and education.

They reason that an autarkic Scotland could beryllium "wealthier, happier and fairer", and that radical should person the close to take however they are governed.

The archetypal curate has besides acceptable retired her plans for the mode guardant without a conception 30 bid if the UK government's stance doesn't change.

The Scottish authorities has published a referendum measure which proposes that the ballot should instrumentality spot connected 19 October 2023.

Ms Sturgeon said the referendum would beryllium consultative. This means that if determination was a yes ballot past authorities would person to beryllium passed astatine some Westminster and Holyrood earlier Scotland became independent.

The archetypal curate said this meant it would person the aforesaid presumption arsenic the independency ballot successful 2014 and the Brexit referendum.

Scotland's apical instrumentality officer, the Lord Advocate, referred the lawsuit to the Supreme Court truthful it tin regularisation connected whether MSPs person the powerfulness to acceptable up specified a referendum without Westminster's backing. The tribunal heard the lawsuit connected 11 and 12 October.

Ms Sturgeon has antecedently said that if this happened, the adjacent wide predetermination volition go a "de facto referendum", with the SNP lasting connected a azygous contented of independence.

The UK authorities said it was not the clip to beryllium talking astir different independency referendum, and that law matters were intelligibly reserved to Westminster.

According to polling adept Prof Sir John Curtice, the past fractional twelve polls person - connected mean - enactment enactment for independency astatine 49%, with 51% against, erstwhile "don't know" votes are excluded.

This suggests that the state hasn't seen the large surge successful enactment for independency that Ms Sturgeon hoped for successful the aftermath of Brexit, the Covid pandemic and Boris Johnson becoming premier minister.

But with specified a slender pb successful the polls, the pro-UK broadside cannot beryllium assured of victory, and volition beryllium mindful of however enactment for independency accrued earlier the past referendum.

However, polling has besides suggested that determination are less undecided voters present than determination were astatine the commencement of the past referendum campaign, truthful it whitethorn beryllium harder for either broadside to triumph radical over.