Semis down 6% next year as PC and smartphone sales decline - Electronics Weekly

Third 4th 2022 information connected PC and smartphone shipments shows a continuing year-to-year decline:

IDC estimates PC units successful 3Q 2022 were down 15% from a twelvemonth earlier, matching the 2Q 2022 decline. IDC’s September forecast for PC units was a 12.8% diminution for the twelvemonth 2022, which is successful enactment with the latest quarterly data.

Canalys estimates 3Q 2022 smartphone shipments declined 9% year-over-year, matching IDC’s estimation of an 8.7% diminution successful 2Q 2022.

IDC’s August projection was a 6.5% driblet successful smartphone units successful twelvemonth 2022. The last fig volition apt beryllium person to a 9% diminution based connected the latest data. IDC expects the PC diminution to mean to a 2.6% diminution successful 2023 and expects smartphones to retrieve to 5.2% growth.

China accumulation information besides reflects the downward trend. Three-month-average alteration versus a twelvemonth agone (3/12 change) of China’s PC portion accumulation peaked astatine 75% successful March 2021.

The precocious maturation complaint was owed to weakness a twelvemonth earlier from COVID-19 pandemic accumulation shutdowns and beardown request for PCs successful 2021 driven by the pandemic. PC 3/12 alteration turned antagonistic successful April 2022 and was -7.3% successful the latest information from August.

Mobile telephone (including smartphones and diagnostic phones) portion maturation peaked astatine 35% successful March 2021 chiefly owed to accumulation shutdowns a twelvemonth earlier. Mobile telephone 3/12 alteration turned antagonistic successful June 2022 and was -4.7% successful August.

Total electronics accumulation successful Chinese currency (yuan) deed a highest of 36% 3/12 alteration successful March 2021.

From May 2021 done March 2022 the maturation complaint ranged betwixt 12% to 13%, successful enactment with pre-pandemic rates.

China electronics accumulation maturation had slowed to astir 8% successful May 2022 to August 2022.

Electronics accumulation successful different cardinal Asian countries has besides been showing slower growth.

South Korea reported 3/12 alteration successful physics accumulation successful the 20% to 24% scope from June 2021 done May 2022. Since then, maturation has been slowing, reaching 4.6% successful August 2022.

Vietnam’s maturation inclination has been volatile, but it was implicit 20% from April to June 2022. In September 2022 maturation decelerated to 4.6%.

Japan electronics accumulation has been declining since October 2021.

Taiwan is the exception, with electronics accumulation maturation reaching 24% successful August 2022.

Unlike astir of Asia, the U.S. and Europe person experienced accelerating maturation successful electronics production.

U.S. 3/12 alteration was 7.8% successful August 2022 and has been connected an accelerating maturation inclination since December 2021.

Electronics accumulation trends successful the United Kingdom and the 27 countries of the European Union has been volatile implicit the past fewer years owed to Brexit and the pandemic.

In 2022, UK electronics accumulation has been connected an upward trend, reaching 14% successful August. The EU 27 showed a diminution successful electronics accumulation for astir of 2022 but returned to 4% maturation successful August.

Automotive has been a maturation country for electronics successful 2022 arsenic different cardinal drivers person slowed down oregon declined.

However, automotive is opening to amusement signs of weakening.

S&P Global Mobility’s forecast from this week has planetary airy conveyance accumulation increasing 6.0% successful 2022 and 4.2% successful 2023.

The 2022 projection is up from its July forecast of 4.7% chiefly owed to improvements successful proviso chains, peculiarly successful China.

However, the 2023 forecast of 4.2% maturation is little than fractional of the July forecast of 8.8% growth.

Production successful 2021 and 2022 has been constricted connected the proviso broadside owed to shortages of semiconductors and different components.

Production successful 2023 volition beryllium constricted owed to weakness connected the request side.

High inflation, rising involvement rates and the hazard of recession are expected to negatively interaction user request for caller vehicles successful 2023.

The economical outlook remains uncertain.

An August 2022 survey of main economists by the World Economic Forum showed 73% believed a planetary recession was apt successful 2023.

Bloomberg’s October survey of 42 economists shows the probability of a U.S. recession successful the adjacent 12 months is 60%. However, Bloomberg’s economical exemplary shows a 100% probability.

SI’s existent forecast for the semiconductor marketplace is simply a 6% diminution successful 2023. However, astir of the hazard is connected the downside.