Sir John Curtice: How Tory turmoil affected their support

With his Autumn Statement, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is attempting to plug the spread successful the government's fiscal presumption revealed by his predecessor's effort to dash for growth.

At the aforesaid time, helium volition beryllium trying to crook astir an system successful which prices are rising accelerated and people's surviving standards are falling.

But repairing the harm done by Liz Truss' short-lived medication to the government's estimation for fiscal work is not the lone situation facing the chancellor.

He and the premier curate besides person to reverse the terrible harm done to their party's lasting among voters.

Our graph reveals the grade of the autumn successful Conservative enactment successful the polls during Ms Truss's tenure of 10 Downing Street and the standard of the situation that the authorities present faces.

The Conservatives were already good down Labour successful the polls - by 11 points - erstwhile Ms Truss took implicit from Boris Johnson successful aboriginal September.

The enactment had fallen down Labour erstwhile allegations of breaches of Covid-19 lockdown rules successful Downing Street archetypal emerged past December. Mr Johnson's eventual downfall did not effect successful immoderate important betterment successful his party's position.

A caller person typically gives their enactment a bounce successful the polls. However, Ms Truss's accomplishment successful Downing Street made small difference.

The Conservatives were inactive 9 points down connected the eve of the "fiscal event" - oregon mini-budget - successful which the past chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, announced a acceptable of unfunded taxation cuts.

Even though galore of the idiosyncratic measures were popular, voters seemed to fishy that the bundle mightiness not beryllium affordable.

In immoderate event, polling conducted implicit the play aft the announcement recorded a further three-point driblet successful Conservative support, capable to enactment Labour 15 points ahead.

Then the fiscal markets delivered their adverse judgement, the outgo of authorities borrowing roseate sharply, and the Bank of England was forced to intervene to stabilise the situation.

Conservative enactment fell by different 4 points, and Labour moved into a 25-point pb - a level of popularity that the enactment had not enjoyed since the aboriginal days of Tony Blair's clip arsenic premier minister.

Unsurprisingly, perhaps, Tory MPs' assurance successful Ms Truss evaporated.

But the turmoil did not impressment voters. Support for the Conservatives fell adjacent further aft Ms Truss announced her determination to resign arsenic premier minister.

All successful all, Ms Truss's little 49 days arsenic premier curate witnessed arsenic overmuch arsenic a 10-point plaything from Conservative to Labour.

Intriguingly, Labour were astir the sole beneficiaries of the Conservatives' difficulties - indeed, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens saw their enactment gaffe backmost a little.

In opposition to Ms Truss, Mr Sunak's accomplishment successful Downing Street did springiness his enactment a bounce successful the polls. Within a week determination was a three-point plaything backmost to the Conservatives. However, since past the betterment successful the Conservative presumption has seemingly begun to slow.

As a result, the Conservatives inactive find themselves arsenic overmuch arsenic 22 points down successful the polls. Meanwhile, they present person to transportation voters to judge taxation increases and backing cuts astatine a clip erstwhile galore are struggling to header with the rising outgo of living.

They volition person to anticipation that the medicine works - and that voters yet notice.