Six Nations 2023: What were teams good at and what are their World Cup chances?

1 year ago 48

With the 2023 Six Nations done and dusted, Opta's Nick Bentley takes a look astatine the numbers to spot however the teams performed and however they are shaping up for this autumn's Rugby World Cup successful France.

Ireland

The 2023 Six Nations was pitched arsenic a conflict betwixt the apical 2 ranked teams successful the world, Ireland v France, and that's however it played out. Ultimately Ireland had excessively overmuch for each their opponents and won a 3rd Six Nations Grand Slam and 5th Championship overall.

In trademark Andy Farrell style, Ireland kept a steadfast grip connected their matches by playing tight. In information a contention precocious 55% of their play remained wrong 10 metres of the erstwhile breakdown. That said they besides had arguably the astir potent back-three successful the Championship, meaning erstwhile they did determination the shot to those extremities, much often than not they scored.

Ireland playing choky  successful  the Six Nations

Hugo Keenan and James Lowe topped the metres gained rankings portion Lowe besides contributed 10 enactment breaks, the astir of immoderate player. In fact, arsenic a unit, Ireland's tally of 39 breaks was the astir of immoderate team.

Ireland were besides highly disciplined, conceding a contention debased 44 penalties and finishing the Championship arsenic the lone broadside not to person a card. A miserly defence successful the reddish portion was besides crucial, conceding conscionable 1.2 points per introduction to the 22, the champion complaint of immoderate side.

Can anyone bushed Ireland? They've mislaid conscionable 2 of their past 24 matches (v France and New Zealand) and are connected a 10-game winning streak, including a brace of wins implicit the All Blacks, victories implicit South Africa and Australia and a Grand Slam.

Their World Cup past is astir apt the astir disappointing of immoderate starring rugby nation, having ne'er progressed past the quarter-finals. But this Ireland broadside fears no-one and has the talent, enactment and strategy to spell each the way.

France

Les Bleus headed into this Six Nations connected a grounds 13-game unbeaten run, nevertheless they could lone widen that to 14 games earlier they were undone by a superb Ireland side. They bounced backmost with flamboyant wins against Scotland, England and Wales.

As a squad they avoided astir a 3rd (29%) of the tackles they faced, with Damian Penaud, Antoine Dupont and Ethan Dumortier each successful the apical 5 of this class individually. Penaud had a singular tackle evasion complaint of 81%, dodging 25 would-be defenders and lone being tackled six times.

PlayerCountryTackle evasion
Damian PenaudFrance81%
Blair KinghornScotland60%
Antoine DupontFrance55%
Ange CapuozzoItaly53%
Ethan DumortierFrance53%

Fabien Galthie's men were besides objective erstwhile they made a break, converting 50% (17/34) of their enactment breaks into tries, the champion complaint of immoderate side. This attacking ratio is mirrored successful the information they averaged 3 points per absorption 22 entry, again the champion complaint of immoderate team. A contention precocious gainline occurrence complaint of 55% rounds disconnected the CV, truthful contempt having the slightest possession (45%), they decidedly took the prize for champion attack.

As World Cup hosts, the unit volition beryllium firmly connected France travel September, particularly arsenic they footwear the tourney disconnected against three-time champions New Zealand. But this broadside are phenomenally talented and person the cohesion to spell deep. If they bash suffer that opener, they could look a nervy last excavation crippled against Italy to determine who progresses to the knockout stages.

Scotland

A coagulated defence is simply a captious instauration for immoderate broadside and Scotland's tackle occurrence complaint of 92% was the champion of immoderate team; Jack Dempsey (55/55) and Jonny Gray (51/51) made much tackles than anyone other successful the tourney not to miss a azygous hit.

On the flip side, Scotland chose to play with width successful attack, going wide much often (14%) than immoderate different side. This bravery was rewarded with the second-best reddish portion conversion complaint successful the tournament, averaging 2.8 points per absorption 22 entry.

Individually, Finn Russell is their star. However, his crippled is precocious risk, precocious reward. High for missed tackles (12) and turnovers conceded (12) but besides sitting associated apical for effort assists (4), and apical among fly-halves for metres gained (218) and defenders beaten (11).

Duhan van der Merwe is somewhat much accordant successful his threat. In this Six Nations helium was 1 of 2 Scotland players to play each infinitesimal (also Jamie Ritchie), beating 35 defenders on the way, surpassing his ain grounds from 2021 (31).

PlayerCountryDefenders beatenYear
Duhan van der MerweScotland352023
Duhan van der MerweScotland312021
Brian O'DriscollIreland 302000
Emile N'tamackFrance262000
George NorthWales262016

Scotland caput into the World Cup with large ambitions, nevertheless a pugnacious excavation awaits. Defending champions South Africa are archetypal up earlier a immense lucifer against Ireland. They'll beryllium underdogs to flight the excavation but some the Springboks and Ireland volition beryllium tense astir playing a rejuvenated Scotland. As with everything Russell is progressive in, expect the unexpected.

England

Steve Borthwick endured a challenging archetypal Six Nations arsenic caput coach. His broadside broke the antiaircraft enactment the slightest often of immoderate outfit (16 times), and combined with the lowest tackle occurrence complaint (83%) and worst goal-kicking (62%) you tin recognize however they failed to prime up much than a mates of wins.

Having the slowest mean ruck velocity (3.8 seconds) of immoderate squad didn't assistance their onslaught find the gaps, nor did the 4 unsocial midfield combinations (10-12-13) they had done the campaign.

One country of occurrence they did person was successful the set-piece and maul. England managed the champion line-out occurrence complaint (92%) of immoderate team, made the astir maul metres of immoderate broadside and scored arsenic galore tries from mauls (3) arsenic the different nations combined. They completed the set-piece spot by managing the champion scrum occurrence complaint successful the Championship (96%).

England96.3%
Ireland91.3%
France90%
Scotland89.3%
Italy85.7%
Wales80.8%
England92.4%
Italy88.8%
France87.5%
Ireland85.7%
Scotland85.3%
Wales85.1%

England commencement their World Cup with pugnacious games against Argentina and Japan, some of whom are acquainted with picking up large scalps successful the tournament. Can Borthwick physique cohesion and assurance successful the abbreviated clip earlier that opening game?

There volition beryllium nary freebies to physique into the tourney and their hopes could beryllium each implicit earlier they play Chile and Samoa if they don't deed the crushed running.

Wales

Warren Gatland's instrumentality provided immoderate pre-tournament buzz but successful the extremity a somewhat fortuitous triumph against a wasteful Italy spared them the Wooden Spoon. Their deficiency of attacking menace and leaky defence are large worries.

Their tally of 147 points conceded was their highest since 2002 (188) portion they besides had the lowest occurrence rates astatine the line-out (85%), scrum (81%) and breakdown (95%). They were besides the lone squad not to people a effort from a counter-attack and they sat bottommost of the charts for defenders beaten (79) and metres gained (1,807).

One affirmative to gully upon is that they were getting successful the positions to people points, down lone Ireland (10.6) and France (10.2) for absorption 22 entries per crippled (10). The interest is they lone registered 1.6 points per entry, the poorest instrumentality for immoderate side.

Wales person a batch of enactment to bash if they privation to spell heavy astatine the World Cup. A comparatively sympathetic excavation - acknowledgment successful ample portion to Wales' ranking backmost erstwhile the gully was made - means they'll beryllium assured of escaping to the knockout stages. There are superior banana skins against Georgia (who bushed them past November) and Fiji (who bushed them successful the 2007 RWC) which could derail those ambitions.

Italy

Although Italy picked up an eighth consecutive Wooden Spoon, and 18th successful total, their performances were vastly improved. Their mean effect borderline this twelvemonth was -12, their champion successful 10 years and 1 large affirmative was their quality to bent connected successful the 2nd half. In fact, the Azzurri 'won' the 2nd fractional successful 2 of their matches (v England & Wales) and drew different (v France).

Quick ruck velocity was important to Italy's momentum successful attack, their mean of 3 seconds per ruck was the fastest of immoderate side, and successful Paolo Garbisi they person a existent maestro who tin marshal that advance. Despite playing conscionable 232 minutes, lone Mack Hansen (7) made much passes that led to a line-break than the Italian fly-half (6).

Mack HansenIreland4007
Juan Ignacio BrexItaly4006
Paolo GarbisiItaly2326
Finn RussellScotland3204
Owen FarrellEngland3543
Bundee AkiIreland2683
Romain NtamackFrance3673
Tommaso AllanItaly3283

Italy look the unenviable situation of playing New Zealand and France astatine the World Cup. They've ne'er beaten the All Blacks and person an mean losing borderline of 48 points from 15 matches. A constrictive decision against Les Bleus (29-24) successful this Championship, however, volition springiness them a glimmer of anticipation of upsetting the hosts successful their last crippled and sneaking retired of a devilish pool.

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