Starlink Ukraine: Why Elon Musk Is the Go-To Internet Provider - Foreign Policy

As is often the lawsuit with Elon Musk, it started with a tweet. On Feb. 26, 2 days aft Russia launched its full-scale penetration of Ukraine, Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov tweeted astatine the world’s wealthiest man.

“While your rockets successfully onshore from space—Russian rockets onslaught Ukrainian civilian people!” Fedorov wrote. “We inquire you to supply Ukraine with Starlink stations,” helium added.

Starlink is simply a constellation of thousands of satellites deployed comparatively adjacent to the Earth’s aboveground done a bid of rocket launches since mid-2019 by genitor institution SpaceX. The company’s net services are disposable to individuals, businesses, and adjacent airlines, with costs starting astatine $110 per month. The hardware utilized to link to them, tiny outer dishes that the institution calls terminals, are priced astatine $599 and up. Starlink’s satellites run successful lower-Earth orbit (LEO)—within 1,200 miles of the Earth’s surface—far person than the geosynchronous satellites deployed by rival companies that supply net connectivity. That means it takes little clip for information to question from terminals connected the crushed to satellites successful orbit and back.

Musk replied to Fedorov’s tweet the aforesaid day, informing him that Starlink’s work was “now progressive successful Ukraine,” indicating that its satellites would commencement beaming net to the country, and pledging to nonstop much terminals. More than 8 months on, Starlink has played a captious relation successful keeping Ukraine’s subject and citizens online arsenic the warfare continues to rage and Russia targets Ukraine’s telecommunications and energy infrastructure.

“It was the opening of a large story, due to the fact that Starlink technologies changed this war,” Fedorov told an assemblage astatine the Web Summit successful Lisbon successful aboriginal November. The outer net work has not lone kept Ukrainian citizens and businesses online but has besides been captious to the warfare effort, helping troops to pass with each different connected the battlefield and adjacent enabling drones and weapons systems to enactment operational.

But Starlink’s centrality to Ukraine’s warfare effort raises the question of wherefore the U.S. authorities hasn’t provided this service, erstwhile it has fixed Ukraine more than $20 billion truthful acold successful subject and humanitarian aid. Is Ukraine’s dependence connected 1 company—effectively 1 man—to enactment online successful the mediate of a warfare yet a bully thing?

Starlink has plentifulness of advantages implicit different communications systems beyond conscionable the lower-orbiting satellites. Its terminals are besides smaller and easier to acceptable up than the emblematic outer crockery required to get connected.

“They’re astir the size of a mean pizza box,” said Andrew Cavalier, an expert astatine the exertion quality steadfast ABI Research who focuses connected outer communications and wireless networks. This makes them easier to deploy successful a wartime setting, but also, helium said, “having smaller terminals means, logistically speaking, much terminals, amended sum betwixt crushed and air.”

There are companies moving connected akin LEO communications, including U.K.-based OneWeb and Amazon’s Project Kuiper (bankrolled by Musk’s chap billionaire Jeff Bezos), arsenic good arsenic Chinese firms GalaxySpace and China SatNet. But those firms are inactive successful assorted stages of starting commercialized operations, Cavalier said, giving Musk and Starlink a large caput commencement that its usage successful the Russia-Ukraine warfare volition lone consolidate.

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna said Starlink has played a important relation successful helping Ukraine to equine its defence against the Russian invasion, peculiarly successful the aboriginal days of the war. “Our authorities has been capable to beryllium operational due to the fact that I had Starlink implicit my head,” she said. “This has been a turning constituent successful our survival.”

But Musk’s Ukrainian net is not each charity. According to aggregate reports, Starlink’s operations successful Ukraine person been astatine slightest partially paid for by the United States, United Kingdom, and Poland. A spokesperson for the Polish authorities confirmed that Poland has paid astir $5.9 cardinal for Starlink services, with enactment from Polish authorities enterprises.

Washington has already paid for a tiny information of the Starlink terminals successful Ukraine. The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) purchased 1,508 terminals successful March for a full of $3 million, according to a USAID spokesperson. The bureau besides delivered an further 3,667 terminals that SpaceX donated, with the institution paying for net work for each the terminals.

“USAID has purchased Starlink terminals, but has not paid for Starlink service,” the spokesperson said. “Like galore mobile web markets, the astir important outgo origin is not the instrumentality itself, but the service, which SpaceX is offering for escaped for each devices.”

SpaceX, the U.S. Defense Department, and the U.K. Defence Ministry did not respond to requests for further remark connected backing for Starlink. Musk tweeted successful mid-October that little than fractional of the 25,300 Starlink terminals successful Ukraine were paying for the service.

But concerns stay astir putting each of Ukraine’s wartime communications needs successful a single, mercurial basket; a abrupt cutoff could beryllium devastating. That happened successful precocious October, erstwhile 1,300 Starlink terminals went offline, reportedly owed to a deficiency of funding. The Ukrainian subject suffered a communications outage arsenic a result, conscionable weeks aft SpaceX sent a letter to the Pentagon saying it could nary longer proceed to money Ukraine’s outer services and asking the Pentagon to ft the bill.

Musk aboriginal walked backmost those demands, tweeting that Starlink would “keep backing Ukraine … for free” and subsequently that SpaceX had “withdrawn its petition for funding,” though negotiations betwixt the institution and the U.S. authorities person reportedly continued.

Stefanishyna, speaking to reporters astatine the Halifax International Security Forum successful Canada connected Nov. 19, besides said Musk had confirmed to her authorities that helium would proceed financing Starlink successful Ukraine. “We person the Twitter warrant of Elon Musk erstwhile helium confirmed that he’s going to concern [Starlink], and helium talked to our curate of integer transformation. So we see it a deal,” she said.

But Stefanishyna besides voiced doubts implicit however committed the billionaire magnate was to honoring those deals, fixed his penchant for lurching abruptly betwixt caller concern ventures and walking backmost connected large deals successful the past. She said Ukraine is making plans to complement Starlink with different systems, conscionable successful lawsuit Musk pulls retired of this woody arsenic well.

“Given this immense scope of instability successful the presumption of SpaceX’s CEO from willingness and past to unwillingness to proceed fiscal support, we are doing contingency readying for ourselves,” she said. Satellite companies that run from geosynchronous orbit could perchance service Ukraine (one company, Viasat, says it is already supporting the state by connecting refugees successful neighboring Slovakia), but mounting up and maintaining the infrastructure to supply those connections would apt beryllium much onerous than the Starlink experience.

“From a commercialized perspective, what Starlink has is unsocial successful the marketplace close now,” said Andrew Metrick, a chap successful the defence programme astatine the Center for a New American Security, adding that U.S. subject communications are usually built and designed for much circumstantial purposes and frankincense person narrower applicability.

“The US subject is going to person requirements and needs that are antithetic than a purely civilian application,” helium said successful an email. “Starlink is benignant of wide purpose. … It’s much readily usable for idiosyncratic similar Ukraine—it’s up there, it’s already a commercialized product, and truthful it’s easier,” helium added.

Having much options whitethorn beryllium worthy the dense lift, however.

“From [Ukraine’s] standpoint, diversifying their web infrastructure is astir apt a amended thought … conscionable due to the fact that if Elon Musk decides helium doesn’t privation to supply connectivity anymore connected a whim they wholly spell blackout,” Cavalier said.

Though Musk has a higher illustration than astir executives—especially aft his acquisition of Twitter—the engagement of backstage companies successful subject conflicts is not new, nor are fights implicit who volition wage for those services. But the Pentagon usually deals with accepted subject contractors, not eccentric billionaires who interval Russian talking points successful the mediate of Ukraine’s existential struggle.

“It is not unheard of for different contractors to person friction with the US government,” Metrick said. The quality present is that Musk is not “the CEO of a much accepted subject contractor.”

And Starlink went to warfare successful a unsocial way, too.

“We often spell to the commercialized assemblage to get further spaceborne communications access. We person virtually done that successful each important conflict,” said retired Adm. Michael Rogers, the erstwhile caput of U.S. Cyber Command and manager of the National Security Agency. “What made this antithetic was, successful this case, the commercialized supplier entered the tract directly.”

The U.S. authorities has wireless communications capabilities, some done its own satellites and done partnerships with salient commercial providers including Inmarsat, Intelsat, Viasat, and Knight Sky. Pentagon property caput Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder said connected Nov. 1 that the section was successful talks with “SpaceX and others” implicit Ukraine’s outer net requirements but declined to stock further details.

But the United States, dissimilar SpaceX, could connection Ukraine different things it needs beyond broadband—such arsenic anti-tank missiles oregon long-range artillery.

“It’s not a question to maine if it’s a deficiency of alternatives—rather successful immoderate ways to maine it reflects the situation,” Rogers said. “If you look astatine the enactment the United States was providing, important communications capableness was not, I believe, 1 of the archetypal halfway areas wherever the U.S. was providing further support.”

Starlink stepping successful to capable the spread erstwhile it did whitethorn person presented the way of slightest absorption for each parties involved, considering however overmuch strain the struggle has enactment connected U.S. and NATO military stockpiles. The company’s engagement whitethorn person allowed the United States to supply different types of subject assistance (of which outer communications lone constituted a small fraction) “without committing resources that are precise finite, that we person a precocious request for successful our ain military,” Rogers added.

The large question present is what happens next. Rogers said the contiguous absorption for the U.S. and Ukrainian governments remains simply maintaining Ukraine’s entree to Starlink’s work but added that the existent concern volition apt besides spark conversations connected however to marque a full-spectrum subject procurement process predictable and sustainable successful the future.

“The commercialized assemblage is processing these astonishing capabilities that historically were successful the purview mostly of governments but present are commercially disposable to immoderate user—commercial oregon government—if you’re consenting to wage for it,” helium said. “So the government’s got to fig retired however to make mechanisms truthful they tin precise rapidly bring that benignant of capableness online erstwhile they request it and however to prolong it implicit time.”

Robbie Gramer contributed to this report.