Steve Rosenberg: What will Putin do next?

“What volition Vladimir Putin bash next?”

It’s a question I’ve been asked a batch this week.

Understandably so.

After all, this was the week the Kremlin person lowered the threshold for the usage of Russian atomic weapons.

It was the week the US and UK crossed (another) Putin reddish line, allowing Ukraine to occurrence Western-supplied longer-range missiles into Russia.

It was besides the week that President Putin, successful effect, threatened the UK, America and immoderate different state supplying Ukraine with specified weapons and for specified a purpose.

“We see ourselves entitled to usage our weapons against the subject facilities of those countries that let their weapons to beryllium utilized against our facilities,” the Russian person said successful an code to the federation connected Thursday evening.

So, you tin see: “What volition Vladimir Putin bash next?” is simply a astir pressing question. And, since I’m the BBC’s Russia Editor, you mightiness expect maine to person the answer.

I’ll beryllium honorable with you. I don’t.

Perhaps adjacent Putin doesn’t cognize the answer, which makes things adjacent much serious.

Instead of answers, immoderate observations.

This week the Kremlin accused the “collective West” of escalating the warfare successful Ukraine.

But astir 3 years of warfare successful Ukraine person shown that it is Vladimir Putin who embraces escalation arsenic a means to achieving his goals - successful this case, power implicit Ukraine oregon astatine the precise slightest bid connected Russia’s terms.

Putin’s full-scale penetration of Ukraine, his determination to state 4 Ukrainian territories portion of Russia, his deployment of North Korean troops to Kursk region, his determination connected Thursday to people the Ukrainian metropolis of Dnipro with a caller intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile, followed up by threats to onslaught the West - each of these correspond moments of escalation successful this conflict.

I erstwhile described Vladimir Putin arsenic a car with nary reverse cogwheel and nary brakes, careering down the highway, accelerator pedal stuck to the floor.

From what I tin see, small has changed.

Don’t expect the Putinmobile to abruptly decelerate oregon de-escalate present successful the look of longer-range rocket strikes connected Russia.

Escalation, though, is different matter. That’s a chiseled possibility.

Ukraine volition beryllium bracing itself for much Russian attacks, adjacent heavier bombardments.

Western governments volition beryllium assessing the menace level successful airy of Putin’s warnings.

Even earlier the Kremlin leader’s TV address, determination had been fears successful the West of an upsurge successful hybrid Russian warfare.

Last period the caput of MI5 warned that Russian subject quality was engaged successful a run to “generate mayhem connected British and European streets".

“We’ve seen arson, sabotage and more," helium added.

Back successful June, Putin suggested that Moscow mightiness limb adversaries of the West if Ukraine were allowed to onslaught heavy into Russia with Western long-range missiles.

"We judge that if idiosyncratic is reasoning it is imaginable to proviso specified weapons to a warfare portion to onslaught our territory and make problems for us,” helium said, “why can’t we proviso our weapons of the aforesaid people to those regions astir the satellite wherever they volition people delicate facilities of the countries that are doing this to Russia?"

Putin warns West arsenic Russia hits Ukraine with caller missile

The question “What volition Putin bash next?” is usually followed by: “Would Putin usage a atomic limb successful the Ukraine war?”

The Russian president has dropped immoderate unsubtle hints.

On announcing the commencement of his "special subject operation" – the full-scale penetration of Ukraine – helium had issued a informing to “those who whitethorn beryllium tempted to interfere from the outside”.

“No substance who tries to basal successful our mode oregon make threats for our state and our people,” the Kremlin person declared, “they indispensable cognize that Russia volition respond immediately.

“And the consequences volition beryllium specified arsenic you person ne'er seen successful your full history.”

Western leaders mostly dismissed what they saw arsenic atomic sabre-rattling. Since the commencement of the warfare Western governments person crossed respective Russian "red lines": providing Ukraine with tanks, precocious rocket systems and past F-16 combatant jets.

The "consequences" threatened by the Kremlin ne'er materialised.

In September Putin announced helium was lowering the threshold for the usage of atomic weapons - the decree was published this week. A wide informing to Europe and America not to let longer-range rocket strikes connected Russian territory.

Now this reddish line, too, has been crossed. In his code to the federation Putin confirmed Western reports that Ukraine had fired US-supplied Atacms and British-made Storm Shadow missiles astatine targets wrong Russia.

Earlier this week, erstwhile pro-Kremlin tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets asked a retired lieutenant-general however Russia should respond to an Atacms onslaught connected Bryansk region, helium replied:

“Starting World War Three implicit strikes connected an arms depot successful Bryansk portion would astir apt beryllium short-sighted.”

It would beryllium comforting to deliberation that the Kremlin shares that view.

But Vladimir Putin’s code to the federation contained nary grounds of that.

His connection to Ukraine’s supporters successful the West appeared to be: this is simply a reddish enactment I’m superior about, I situation you to transverse it.

“Even Putin doesn’t cognize whether helium tin usage a atomic weapon, oregon helium can’t. It depends connected his emotions,” Novaya Gazeta columnist Andrei Kolesnikov told maine recently.

“We cognize he’s a precise affectional man. The determination to statesman this warfare was besides an affectional step. Because of that we indispensable instrumentality earnestly his thought of the changing of the atomic doctrine. They accidental the fearfulness of warfare indispensable instrumentality and volition incorporate some sides, but this is besides a instrumentality of escalation.

“In this mentation we indispensable admit that Putin, nether immoderate circumstances, tin usage astatine slightest a tactical atomic limb successful the model of a constricted atomic war. It volition not lick the problem. But it volition beryllium the commencement of a suicidal escalation for the full world.”

Tactical atomic weapons are tiny warheads intended for usage connected the battlefield oregon a constricted strike.

Vladimir Putin whitethorn enactment connected emotions. He is also, clearly, driven by resentment of the West and appears determined not to backmost down.

But helium besides knows the satellite could soon beryllium a precise antithetic place.

In 2 months’ clip Joe Biden volition beryllium retired of bureau and Donald Trump volition beryllium successful the White House.

President-Elect Trump has expressed scepticism regarding US subject assistance for Ukraine and has been fiercely captious of Nato.

He’s besides said precocious that talking to Vladimir Putin would beryllium “a astute thing”.

All of that should beryllium euphony to Putin’s ears.

Which means that, contempt the latest threats and warnings, the Kremlin whitethorn determine against a large escalation close now.

That is, if the Kremlin has calculated that Donald Trump volition assistance extremity the warfare connected presumption beneficial to Russia.

If that calculation changes, truthful could Moscow’s response.