Subtropical Storm Nicole expected to hit Florida at hurricane strength - The Washington Post

Hurricane warnings — representing the menace of winds reaching 74 mph — span from Boca Raton to the Flagler-Volusia region line. Tropical tempest warnings are successful effect for the remainder of Florida’s eastbound seashore northbound of Miami, arsenic good arsenic the seashore of confederate Georgia, connoting a precocious likelihood of tropical tempest impacts.

Strong onshore winds, chiefly adjacent and northbound of Nicole’s center, could spur “life-threatening” storm-surge flooding arsenic h2o is piled up against the seashore implicit aggregate tide cycles, according to the National Hurricane Center. A tempest surge warning, for a unsafe emergence successful h2o supra usually adust land, blankets the eastbound seashore of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia.

Meanwhile, tropical tempest watches person been expanded to see the gulf broadside of Florida, too, chiefly from northbound of Bonita Beach to the Big Bend area. That encompasses Port Charlotte and Fort Myers, some deed hard by Category 4 Ian hardly six weeks ago, arsenic good arsenic the greater Tampa area.

An water surge of up to respective feet could impact areas astir Tampa Bay and conscionable to the northbound connected Florida’s westbound coast; this country is nether a tempest surge watch.

Nicole, oregon Nicole’s remnants, volition expanse up the East Coast from Friday into the weekend, dropping dense rainfall from the Carolinas to Canada. For galore locations, an full month’s worthy of rainfall could autumn successful arsenic small arsenic 24 hours.

On Tuesday morning, Nicole was 350 miles northeast of the northwest Bahamas. Maximum winds were estimated astatine 50 mph, and the tempest was moving westbound astatine 9 mph.

Nicole is simply a subtropical storm, which means it is simply a hybrid strategy possessing characteristics of some tropical and nontropical systems. Consequently, its upwind tract is tremendous — 40 mph tropical-storm-force winds grow outward up to 380 miles from the center.

On satellite, Nicole was opening to amusement immoderate signs of possibly becoming a spot much tropical. That said, it is inactive lopsided. A wide aboveground swirl of unreality screen exists, but the bulk of thunderstorm enactment is displaced northbound of the center.

Passing implicit lukewarm waters, Nicole is forecast to gradually intensify done Wednesday, reaching hurricane spot adjacent the northwest Bahamas, which are nether a hurricane warning.

Nicole is apt to marque landfall determination betwixt Fort Lauderdale and Daytona Beach precocious Wednesday nighttime oregon aboriginal Thursday greeting arsenic a Category 1 hurricane with winds adjacent 75 mph.

Tropical-storm-force winds could statesman 18 hours oregon much up of its accomplishment — oregon arsenic soon arsenic Wednesday day successful southeast Florida and Wednesday evening toward the Treasure and Space coasts. Persistent onshore travel volition effect successful coastal flooding implicit the duration of respective tide cycles.

In fact, astir of the Atlantic coastline of Florida should spot a tempest surge of up to 3 to 5 feet. That whitethorn not dependable similar much, but tens of thousands of Florida homes are wrong 5 feet of oversea level.

The National Weather Service wrote the surge could person “significant impacts,” particularly from Palm Beach northward with harm to buildings, marinas, docks and piers, arsenic good arsenic washed retired roads and large formation erosion.

“Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should ... beryllium brought to completion earlier conditions go unsafe,” the National Weather Service wrote. “Leave instantly if evacuation orders are fixed for your country to debar being chopped disconnected from exigency services oregon needlessly risk[ing] lives.”

Rain bands and squalls volition pivot onshore aboriginal Wednesday greeting but volition summation successful sum and strength during the afternoon. A fewer of the squalls, chiefly wrong 20 miles of Florida’s eastbound coast, could nutrient tornadoes oregon waterspouts northbound of the storm’s center, particularly betwixt Palm Beach and adjacent Daytona Beach.

Winds volition beryllium connected the bid of 30 to 45 mph connected Wednesday on the coastline but volition summation to 45 to 60 mph wrong astir 50 miles of Nicole’s center, with gusts to 75 mph and higher imaginable wrong its constrictive core.

A wide 3 to 5 inches of rainfall with localized 6 to 8 inch totals tin beryllium expected successful eastbound Florida, with an inch oregon 2 little to the west.

“Flash and municipality flooding volition beryllium imaginable crossed portions of the Florida Peninsula on with renewed stream rises connected portions of the St. Johns River,” the Hurricane Center wrote.

Eventually, Nicole’s waterlogged circulation and remnants volition beryllium scooped up the Eastern Seaboard by an approaching trough, oregon dip successful the pitchy stream. Its moisture volition excavation on a acold beforehand draped on the Appalachians, bringing 2 to 3.5 inches of rainfall betwixt determination and the Interstate 95 corridor. The cardinal clip framework for this rainfall lawsuit would beryllium Friday and Saturday.

If Nicole comes ashore successful Florida astatine hurricane strength, it would beryllium a highly antithetic event: The Lower 48 has recorded lone 5 landfalling November hurricanes since the mid-1850s. That would marque it a erstwhile successful astir 30- to 40-year event.