Suspicion swirls over Russia's plans for Belarus after minister's death - The Washington Post

The Belarusian dictator, who has been successful powerfulness since 1994, is known for unfurling alarmist, far-fetched baseless claims. His latest informing comes amid swirling rumors of plots and intrigue, galore dismissed by analysts arsenic unlikely, pursuing the unexpected decease past play of Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei, a adjacent state and confidant of Lukashenko’s.

Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin warned connected Thursday that anti-Lukashenko Belarusian regiments warring for Kyiv had superior combat acquisition and could beryllium utilized to prehend powerfulness successful Minsk.

“Ukraine, nether immoderate pretext, is astir apt trying to gully the troops of NATO subordinate states into the conflict,” Lukashenko said, according to Belarusian authorities media, Without evidence, helium besides warned of expanding “provocations” connected the border.

Ukraine has consistently denied Lukashenko’s accusations of immoderate program to onslaught and is gathering antiaircraft trenches and a obstruction on the border.

“Increasing calls are made by the fugitive opposition, our bandits, to prehend powerfulness by unit and perpetrate violent acts connected the territory of Belarus,” Lukashenko said, calling them “not conscionable traitors, but extremists. They bash not hesitate to telephone for strikes against targets connected the territory of our country.”

In fact, Lukashenko mightiness person origin for paranoia these days, but not needfully for the reasons helium cites.

Dependent connected Moscow for promises of information enactment aft protests successful 20020 astir tipped him retired of office, Lukashenko allowed his state to beryllium utilized arsenic a staging crushed for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s penetration of Ukraine. Belarus has served arsenic a basal for Russia to motorboat attacks, to supply aesculapian attraction for wounded soldiers and, much recently, to bid thousands of recently conscripted Russian troops.

But Lukashenko has irritated Moscow by refusing to nonstop his subject forces into Ukraine to bolster Putin’s depleted service there. Such a determination would beryllium profoundly unpopular successful Belarus and perchance disturbance caller protests.

Lukashenko’s choices are narrowing arsenic the warfare drags on. He is nether unit from Russia for accrued subject commitments portion besides sanctioned by the West for his relation successful enabling the penetration of Ukraine, arsenic good arsenic for his brutal crackdown connected absorption activists since his fraudulent 2020 reelection Nearly 1,500 members of the absorption are present imprisoned.

Makei’s death, meanwhile, means determination is 1 little pragmatic, rational dependable successful Lukashenko’s ear, advocating maximum independency from Moscow, without risking a Ukrainian-style invasion.

Lukashenko placed reddish roses astatine Makei’s coffin earlier his burial Tuesday and concisely touched the dormant man’s arm, gazing astatine him for a fewer moments, dry-eyed, earlier condoling with Makei’s family.

Makei, a wily authorities loyalist, had appeared to beryllium successful bully wellness earlier helium died astatine location connected Saturday, aged 64. His decease provoking a blizzard of speculation that helium mightiness person been clandestinely killed by Russia, with myriad competing theories connected motive.

But mundane explanations whitethorn beryllium much likely. Liberal media outlet Nasha Niva reported that Makei died of a bosom onslaught aft failing to question aesculapian assistance.

Mistaken by immoderate arsenic a pro-Western figure, Makei was a erstwhile Soviet subject quality colonel who sought to maximize authoritarian powerfulness successful Belarus and sphere the stableness of the regime, according to expert Artyom Shraibman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“What everyone should recognize astir Makei is that for him, loyalty to Lukashenko is paramount and the stableness of the authorities is paramount,” Shraibman said.

Makei was besides 1 of the fewer Belarusian officials susceptible of communicating with Western officials and who could explicate Minsk’s presumption that Belarus indispensable ever relationship for a menace from Moscow, helium said.

“He was successful a precise unsocial presumption of being precise adjacent to Lukashenko and trusted by Lukashenko since the opening of the period but besides having connections with the West and an quality to speech to the West,” Shraibman said. “He was a cleanable amplifier of signals from Lukashenko to the West and from the West to Lukashenko.”

Speaking to journalists past week astatine a gathering of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, Lukashenko warned Ukraine to halt warring oregon look “total destruction.”

He has repeatedly accused Ukraine and the West of plotting to onslaught Belarus, with nary evidence. By emphasizing the expected menace to Belarus, helium creates a justification not to nonstop his service to Ukraine.

Last year, Lukashenko claimed, without evidence, to beryllium the people of a U.S.-led assassination plot.

In resisting Moscow’s demands, Lukashenko presumably recognizes that his small, untested service of 45,000 troops would apt spot dense losses if sent to combat Ukraine’s battle-hardened military.

Makei, formerly caput of Lukashenko’s administration, had agelong been a steadfast dependable wrong the authorities successful favour of resisting Russian subject and governmental dominance, Shraibman said.

“He was ever successful favour of an authoritarian authorities conducting itself smarter, engaging immoderate of its critics,” helium said. “Probably his lone ideological leaning is not being pro-Russian. He spoke harshly astir the Russian authorities and Russian governmental civilization successful backstage conversations.”

Despite Lukashenko’s reluctance to nonstop forces to fight, Belarus is being pulled deeper into Moscow’s subject clasp arsenic the warfare goes on, successful ways that volition beryllium hard to untangle successful the future.

In October, Lukashenko announced that a associated Russian-Belarusian unit of 9,000 men would beryllium based successful Belarus, without explaining its relation — though Russian officials said it would not combat successful Ukraine.

Makei’s decease was followed by a study from a little-known deliberation vessel that Putin was plotting to assassinate Lukashenko successful a bid to instrumentality implicit the Belarusian military, a assertion discounted by analysts.

“It’s precise hard to spot however the Belarusian service could beryllium expected by anyone to person immoderate effect connected the result of the warfare against Ukraine,” wrote Ruth Deyermond, an adept connected post-Soviet information astatine King’s College London, successful comments connected Twitter, adding that specified a determination could trigger important home unrest.

The subject tensions successful Belarus implicit the warfare person overshadowed Lukashenko’s harsh governmental crackdown since 2020 that was designed, similar a akin Kremlin operation, to crush the opposition.

Lukashenko’s authorities has relentlessly pursued radical who took portion successful the peaceful 2020 protests, dragging radical from their homes, beating them, signaling forced confessions and jailing them.

Maria Kolesnikova, an imprisoned absorption person who jointly led the 2020 statesmanlike run against Lukashenko, was connected Tuesday admitted to intensive attraction requiring exigency country aft she was enactment into a punishment cell.

Kolesnikova’s lawyer had antecedently been denied entree to her, and her household was denied accusation connected what occurred to necessitate surgery.