The case for cautious Democratic optimism is tough, but not impossible - MSNBC

When I person casual conversations with friends — folks who cognize what I bash professionally — I get asked precisely what you’d expect: What’s going to hap successful the elections? Who’ll triumph and who’ll lose? Should they beryllium optimistic oregon pessimistic?

I thin to debar publishing predictions, but my expectations are mostly successful enactment with the accepted wisdom. Republicans request a nett summation of 5 seats to instrumentality power of the House and a nett summation of 1 spot to instrumentality power of the Senate. You don’t request a Ph.D. successful governmental subject to look astatine the polls, forecasts, and humanities models and recognize that the GOP volition astir apt beryllium rather pleased with the predetermination results.

But if I were trying to speech a Democratic elector disconnected a ledge, I’d person astatine slightest immoderate facts to enactment with.

For example, there’s immoderate caller past to consider. Since Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices overturned Roe v. Wade, determination person been 5 legislature peculiar elections. Democrats exceeded expectations — and overperformed comparative to pre-election polls — in each five.

Ahead of the August contention successful New York’s 19th district, Politico ran a report with a header that read, “Want to cognize if a reddish question is happening? Watch this peculiar election.” To the astonishment of astir everyone — including the National Republican Congressional Committee, which effectively guaranteed success successful this contention — the Democratic campaigner won.

While we’re astatine it, progressive turnout successful Kansas besides stunned overmuch of the governmental world a fewer weeks earlier successful a statewide ballot connected termination rights.

Is the Democratic presumption arsenic beardown present arsenic it was implicit the summer? Definitely not. But is astatine slightest imaginable that polling is erstwhile again understating Democratic support? Sure it is. A New York Times analysis explained this morning:

Just astir thing is inactive imaginable successful this year’s midterm elections. Everything from a Democratic clasp successful the Senate and a reasonably adjacent contention for the House to thing similar a Republican rout is good wrong the scope of realistic possibilities connected Tuesday. ... There is besides the anticipation of much astonishing outcomes: a existent Republican landslide oregon a Democratic clasp connected Congress.

To beryllium sure, erstwhile mounting expectations, it’s mostly champion to play the likelihood and presume the astir apt result is the 1 that’ll happen. But if you’re a Democratic elector waiting to beryllium talked disconnected a ledge, enactment that the aforementioned paragraph successful the Times utilized variations connected the connection “possible” 3 times successful 3 sentences.

Around this clip six years ago, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast exemplary showed Hillary Clinton with a roughly 72% chance of winning the 2016 statesmanlike election. We each cognize what happened, of course, but the latest FiveThirtyEight forecast exemplary present shows Democrats with a 44% chance of maintaining a constrictive bulk successful the Senate.

Or enactment different way, Chuck Schumer’s chances of remaining Senate bulk person are amended than Trump’s chances of getting elected successful 2016 — and Trump was elected successful 2016.

While we’re astatine it, if I were besides trying to speech that hypothetical Democratic elector disconnected a ledge, I’d besides enactment immoderate of the 11th-hour grounds looks astatine slightest somewhat encouraging for the incumbent party: The last NBC News poll of the rhythm showed Democrats catching up to Republicans successful enthusiasm up of Election Day, and Democrats present bask a constrictive pb implicit the GOP among apt voters connected the legislature generic ballot.

The last Politico-Morning Consult canvass of the cycle, released this morning, besides recovered Democrats ahead by 5 points — up from a one-point vantage 2 weeks ago.

Don’t archer our person connected the ledge, but I inactive deliberation the astute happening to bash is to acceptable expectations against the astir apt outcome. The astir apt result is that a full batch of Republicans are poised to triumph a full batch of elections, the merits of their respective candidacies notwithstanding.

But I besides deliberation anyone making sweeping assumptions contiguous astir what’ll hap time are making premature leaps.