The chances of a three-peat national title for the Big 12 and other conference predictions

2 years ago 58

If a league was ever balanced astatine the top, it's this year's Big 12. Defending champion Kansas and 2021 nationalist champ Baylor are tied astatine No. 5 successful the AP's preseason poll. Both look poised to scope the Final Four.

Then again, the Big 12 play has already opened successful astonishing manner with the quality that Kansas caput manager Bill Self is suspended for the archetypal 4 games. The punishment was imposed by the assemblage amid continuing fallout from the FBI's 2017 probe into assemblage basketball.

Before and aft Self's return, the Jayhawks volition trust connected Jalen Wilson, Dajuan Harris Jr., Texas Tech transportation Kevin McCullar Jr. and highly anticipated recruits similar Gradey Dick, Ernest Udeh and M.J. Rice. Kansas volition request to gel quickly, due to the fact that Baylor returns LJ Cryer, Adam Flagler and Flo Thamba portion adding Keyonte George, the No. 6 imaginable successful the 2022 ESPN 100.

Still, the remainder of the league won't marque things easy. Texas is putting veterans Marcus Carr and Timmy Allen alongside Iowa State transportation Tyrese Hunter and imaginable 2023 lottery prime Dillon Mitchell. TCU returns each 5 starters from a squad that took apical effect Arizona to overtime successful the circular of 32 past March.

Texas Tech is known for defense, and Mark Adams and his radical task to uphold that estimation this season. With the tourney tally the Red Raiders posted nether Chris Beard backmost successful 2019, the Big 12 has been represented successful each of the past 3 nationalist rubric games. Don't beryllium amazed if that streak reaches 4 consecutive successful 2023.

Find much preseason investigation here.


Big-12 2022-23 superlatives

Player of the Year

Myron Medcalf: Mike Miles Jr., TCU Horned Frogs
Jeff Borzello: Mike Miles Jr., TCU Horned Frogs
John Gasaway: Adam Flagler, Baylor Bears
Joe Lunardi: Jalen Wilson, Kansas Jayhawks

Newcomer of the Year

Medcalf: Grant Sherfield, Oklahoma Sooners
Borzello: Gradey Dick, Kansas Jayhawks
Gasaway: Dillon Mitchell, Texas Longhorns
Lunardi: Grant Sherfield, Oklahoma Sooners


Big-12 2022-23 roundtable

Baylor and Kansas person fixed the Big 12 back-to-back nationalist championships. What are the chances of a Big 12 three-peat, and which programme could execute it?

Borzello: If a Big 12 programme is going to triumph the rubric this year, it's going to beryllium Baylor oregon Kansas. While neither are considered the favorites, some are statement top-10 teams and are adjacent tied astatine No. 5 successful the preseason AP poll. Baylor should person 1 of the champion perimeter groups successful the country, with five-star defender Keyonte George joining Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer, portion Kansas has a top-five recruiting class, Bill Self and perchance a breakout play from Jalen Wilson. It's not retired of the realm of possibility.

Gasaway: I similar Baylor's chances. It could beryllium hard to archer successful past year's "everybody has an unthinkable defense" Big 12, but the Bears were elite connected discourtesy adjacent with Cryer sidelined for each but 15 minutes of February and March. Now he's back, and portion of what should beryllium a loaded backcourt. Plus, Kansas took distant Baylor's No. 1 ranking successful the league successful changeable measurement past season, by a hair. The Bears volition beryllium crashing the violative solid and playing angry!

Medcalf: The 8 oregon 9 teams beneath No. 1 North Carolina successful the AP preseason poll, including Baylor and Kansas, each look comparable entering the season. I springiness Baylor the flimsy borderline implicit Kansas, though. Bill Self has said Jalen Wilson has to beryllium an All-American for Kansas to scope its potential. I deliberation helium has that potential, but we person to spot if helium tin play the mode helium did successful the nationalist rubric crippled for an full season. Baylor has been top-25 successful adjusted violative and antiaircraft ratio implicit the past 3 years, and won an mean of 27 games during that stretch. I deliberation that volition proceed with this year's talented group, enhanced by George's potential.

Lunardi: Kansas and Baylor were statement No. 1 seeds for the canceled 2020 tournament, with Kansas being the No. 1 wide seed. The accidental of 1 of them winning it each -- some were 2 of the apical 3 teams successful the state that year, on with Gonzaga -- was beauteous high. If forced to prime 1 of the Big 12 powers successful 2023, I'd spell with Baylor. The Bears person a small much acquisition and a stronger perimeter than the defending nationalist champions. But the existent communicative is conscionable however ascendant these 2 programs person been for the past 4 years.


Chris Beard underwhelmed successful his archetypal play coaching astatine Texas. Is this season's squad amended than the last?

Gasaway: In the past decade, Texas has earned a higher effect than past play conscionable once. Over the aforesaid span, the Longhorns ne'er went deeper into the tourney than what we saw successful 2022. So by section standards, possibly Beard did alright with the No. 6 effect and the travel to the circular of 32. This season, the Longhorns should bash adjacent amended due to the fact that it's inconceivable that a Chris Beard defence volition beryllium (surprisingly adjacent to the lofty Big 12) mean 2 seasons successful a row. Plus, Marcus Carr's inactive here. Do we get to bash Perry Ellis jokes with him yet?

Medcalf: Texas changeable conscionable 31% from 3 successful league play past season. If that stat doesn't improve, the Longhorns mightiness autumn abbreviated of their ceiling again. But I talked to Tyrese Hunter astatine Big 12 media day, who said Carr was captious successful his recruitment. He besides thinks this year's radical volition person that transportation and poise indispensable to scope its potential. If they blend, the Longhorns could past longer successful the NCAA tourney than they did a twelvemonth ago.

Borzello: Texas had Final Four hopes past preseason, with 2 starters returning from the Shaka Smart epoch and Beard bringing successful 1 of the champion transportation classes of each time. But the squad ne'er lived up to the October hype. And adjacent though the programme has seen immoderate departures, the endowment level mightiness beryllium higher this season. Starters Carr and Timmy Allen return, and five-star recruits Dillon Mitchell -- a imaginable lottery prime -- and Arterio Morris get alongside top-three transportation Tyrese Hunter. Can each this endowment people much efficiently than past play and marque shots from the perimeter much consistently? If the reply to some questions is yes, Texas should spell further.

Lunardi: Not definite "underwhelmed" is the connection I would take for Texas. Maybe expectations were a spot unreasonable for a modulation year, nevertheless individually talented the Longhorns whitethorn person been. Let's not forget: Texas hasn't won an NCAA tourney crippled since 2014. The Longhorns haven't outplayed their effect successful 20 years. I fishy this volition beryllium the play that changes.


This league has been synonymous with outstanding defence implicit the past fewer seasons. Which squad volition decorativeness with the champion D successful the conference?

Medcalf: When Texas Tech made its tally to the Final Four successful 2019, Mark Adams was its antiaircraft coordinator. His Texas Tech squad past play was No. 1 successful adjusted antiaircraft ratio successful the country. The Red Raiders were besides top-10 successful 3 of the 4 erstwhile seasons, erstwhile Adams was Beard's assistant. Adams is assemblage basketball's Monte Kiffin. I'll ever presume his squad volition person the apical defence successful the league. It's nary antithetic this season.

Gasaway: Until further notice, the roadworthy to this "best defense" rubric inactive goes done Lubbock. Last year, Texas Tech was No. 1 successful the federation for adjusted D astatine KenPom for the 2nd clip successful 4 seasons. That of people has travel nether 2 antithetic caput coaches. Maybe it's thing successful the water, but expect Mark Adams and his guys to clasp onto what's theirs. Saying you're the champion defence successful the Big 12 is nary mean feat.

Lunardi: The league's champion defence volition beryllium determination successful the Lone Star state: Texas Tech, Texas oregon Baylor. With Chris Beard present having a afloat year's buy-in to his system, I'm going with the Longhorns. Either that, oregon guys who fig to beryllium doing a batch of playing volition beryllium doing a batch of watching. My wealth is connected Beard winning a trial of wills.

Borzello: If Fardaws Aimaq was going to beryllium afloat steadfast from time one, I would've astir apt picked Texas Tech. But the Utah Valley transportation is retired for the archetypal portion of the play owed to a ft injury. So I'll spell with Texas. The Longhorns were a top-15 defence nationally past play and 4th successful the Big 12. Now adhd Hunter, 1 of the champion on-ball antiaircraft guards successful the state a twelvemonth ago, and Mitchell, a versatile defender whose explosiveness and 6-foot-9 size marque him a antiaircraft playmaker connected the wing. The sleeper successful this class mightiness really beryllium Oklahoma State, which softly had a top-five defence nationally past play and inactive has Moussa Cisse protecting the rim.


Who oregon what are we not talking astir capable astir crossed the Big-12?

Borzello: TCU is going to beryllium fascinating to show this season. The Horned Frogs bring astir everyone backmost -- including Preseason Player of the Year Mike Miles Jr. -- from a squad that blew retired Seton Hall and past took 1-seed Arizona to the ligament successful the 2nd round. But Jamie Dixon's squad needs consistency. They bushed Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas and LSU. They mislaid to Santa Clara, West Virginia, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. They ne'er won much than 2 games successful a enactment implicit the last 3 months of the season. But the benignant of continuity and roster retention they person is uncommon successful modern-day assemblage basketball. And that should beryllium a difference-maker.

Lunardi: My Big 12 storylines are bookends of sorts. The TCU resurgence nether Jamie Dixon is well-documented and should effect successful the program's champion squad this century. At the different extremity of things, I wonderment if we're seeing a imperishable diminution astatine West Virginia. The Mountaineers tied for their worst Big 12 grounds of the Bob Huggins era, and determination is nary evident rebound successful sight. WVU has ne'er travel adjacent to back-to-back losing seasons nether Huggins. But it could happen, and determination could beryllium unpleasant whispering successful Morgantown.

Gasaway: Say it with me. Three-peat! Three-peat! The archetypal question already alluded to this, but we're inactive not talking astir capable astir this. Just see 3 nationalist championships successful a enactment for 1 league. It has happened erstwhile successful our post-Wooden era, erstwhile Duke won back-to-back titles successful 1991 and 1992 and North Carolina followed successful 1993. For a league that volition adhd Houston adjacent season, the Big 12 is already impressively, if not historically, strong.

Medcalf: I don't deliberation we're talking capable astir the information that Mike Boynton's programme was banned from past year's postseason for infractions that did not impact immoderate existent player, manager oregon staffer astatine Oklahoma State. A twelvemonth aboriginal successful a abstracted process, the IARP sheet essentially exonerated Penny Hardaway and Memphis successful a lawsuit that besides progressive allegations of improprieties. The IARP seemed to recognize that the NCAA had failed successful its duties successful erstwhile infractions cases, successful the ruling. But Oklahoma State suffered a setback that was unfair to that program. Boynton and his squad merit an apology.


Big-12 2022-23 league champion predictions

Read Entire Article