But 9 of the 10 districts that person attracted the astir wealth implicit the past fewer months are seats wherever Democratic incumbents are moving for reelection. Total advertisement spending connected House races this rhythm — including wealth from some candidates and extracurricular groups — has already surpassed $1.2 billion, with much than $100 cardinal planned successful the last play earlier Election Day.
Money does not dictate electoral outcomes. But the spending totals bash exemplify which districts some parties person deemed arsenic the astir apt prospects to flip erstwhile the votes are counted.
Twenty-four House districts attracted astatine slightest $5 cardinal successful TV and vigor spending from each enactment betwixt July 1 and Oct. 31, according to a POLITICO investigation of information from AdImpact.
Democrats are defending 20 of the 24 districts, portion lone 3 — California’s 22nd District, New Mexico’s 2nd District and New York’s 22nd District — are presently held by Republicans.
Those 3 seats were each made much competitory via redistricting. One caller seat, Colorado’s 8th District, is simply a imaginable pickup accidental for some parties. The highly targeted districts see a fistful of seats that Trump won successful 2020 held by Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine), Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.) and Cindy Axne (D-Iowa).
These districts that person attracted dense spending connected some sides bash not bespeak the afloat House battleground. Democrats person not spent rather arsenic overmuch successful the Omaha suburbs but are inactive hoping to flip the spot held by Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who managed to clasp onto his spot successful 2020 contempt Biden besides winning his district. Republicans are optimistic astir picking up Democratic-held seats specified arsenic Arizona’s 2nd and 6th Districts, wherever Democratic groups person invested less.
“Democrats are playing some discourtesy and defence to halt MAGA extremists from sending our state backwards,” said Tommy Garcia, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Redistricting aft the 2020 Census shrunk the fig of genuinely competitory seats, with Republicans successful peculiar capable to shore up districts that Democrats mightiness person targeted successful past elections. That trend, coupled with a nationalist situation driven by Biden support ratings successful the debased 40s, has chopped backmost Democrats’ pickup prospects.
Republicans person besides thrown last-minute funds into respective bluer districts. Among the districts attracting the astir TV and vigor wealth successful the last weeks earlier Election Day is New York’s 17th District, wherever Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) is facing an unexpectedly hard situation from Republican Michael Lawler. Democrats are poised to walk $2.3 cardinal successful the contention betwixt present and Election Day compared to shy of $1.4 cardinal for Republicans. The contention had seen small spending from either enactment anterior to October.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, House Republicans’ superior ace PAC, besides added buys this week successful Democratic-held districts successful Illinois and New York that were erstwhile seen arsenic harmless holds for the party.
“Money talks and the wealth is saying House Republicans are pushing heavy into Democrat-held territory. That’s atrocious quality for each susceptible Democrat,” said Michael McAdams, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Even with the last-minute GOP advertisement buys, Democrats are inactive spending much connected House races successful the last weekend, reflecting the party’s candidate-level fundraising vantage and a beardown decorativeness for its pb ace PAC, House Majority PAC.
The radical is acceptable to walk much than $50 cardinal from Nov. 1 done Election Day, according to AdImpact. And the 10 seats wherever it is spending the astir implicit that play are each districts Democrats are trying to hold.
Ally Mutnick contributed reporting.
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