The fear that gives Western leaders sleepless nights

Attention successful the Ukrainian superior has been fixed squarely connected the mutiny of the Wagner Group, its person Yevgeny Prigozhin, and its consequences for Vladimir Putin and the behaviour of the warfare successful Ukraine.

The play implicit the borderline successful Russia has hardened the presumption successful Kyiv that Mr Putin's clip arsenic Russia's president is coming to an end.

"I deliberation the countdown has started," said Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky's closest adviser.

At a briefing successful Kyiv, helium looked backmost to the twelvemonth that Russia archetypal invaded Ukraine, annexing the Crimean Peninsula.

"What Ukraine has seen since 2014 has go evident for the full world," said Mr Yermak.

"This [Russia] is simply a violent state whose person is an inadequate idiosyncratic who has mislaid transportation with reality. The satellite indispensable reason that it's intolerable to person immoderate benignant of superior narration with that country."

Senior Ukrainian officials who spoke to the BBC present successful Kyiv each argued that President Putin could not thrust retired a catastrophic nonaccomplishment of authority.

It started, they said, with his disastrous determination to equine a full-scale penetration of Ukraine successful February past year. The Wagner mutiny, and Mr Prigozhin's denunciation of the Kremlin's justifications for the warfare have, they said, removed what remained of Mr Putin's chances of hanging on.

"The Putin regime" 1 of them insisted, "cannot beryllium saved."

It is captious to retrieve that thing Ukrainians, particularly the ones moving the country, accidental astir their Russian enemies comes successful the vigor of a combat that they see, correctly, arsenic a conflict for nationalist survival.

The Ukrainians person fought a clever media war, and they are remarkably accordant successful the messages that they present to their ain radical and their Western allies, arsenic good arsenic their enemies successful Moscow.

Wishful reasoning indispensable play a portion successful the assessments they stock with journalists.

But it is inactive worthy spending clip getting their views of the situation that has engulfed the presidency of their mortal force Vladimir Putin.

Without doubt, helium is facing the astir superior situation to his authorization since helium archetypal became president successful 2000.

Other elder officials successful Kyiv accidental they are convinced that Mr Putin is opposed by informal but organised networks of disenchanted insiders.

In his office, Oleksiy Danilov, the caput of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, told the BBC that "Prigozhin is not the astir senior. They mightiness go the caller governmental elite".

Mr Danilov said they included information forces, officials and representatives of Russia's oligarchs, who judge that Mr Putin's determination to motorboat a afloat penetration of Ukraine successful February past twelvemonth has been a idiosyncratic catastrophe for them arsenic good arsenic a menace to Russia.

Mr Danilov, a antheral successful his aboriginal sixties wearing a achromatic military-style outfit with his surname connected a badge connected his chest, bristled for a infinitesimal erstwhile I asked if helium had impervious to backmost up his analysis.

"I'm not speculating," helium insisted. "We cognize who these radical are, we cognize astir their lives."

Mykhailo Podolyak, different adjacent advisor to President Zelensky, agreed determination were "several groups of radical who privation to instrumentality powerfulness successful Russia".

The strategy Mr Putin built, top-down and authoritarian, was, helium claimed, being replaced by a adjacent vacuum astatine the centre of power.

Another elder official, who spoke connected information helium was not named, went further, suggesting that President Putin would beryllium forced to disregard his Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov, possibly arsenic a effect to different subject setback.

Firing the 2 men was a cardinal request of Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner mutineers.

"Prigozhin volition get what helium wanted," the authoritative predicted. "His governmental beingness is not finished. He won't enactment successful exile successful Belarus."

As for Ukraine's offensive, Mr Podolyak said the Wagner mutiny did not past agelong capable to power the warring on a beforehand of 1,800 kilometres, the longest - helium said - successful immoderate warfare since 1945.

It is wide to the astir dispassionate perceiver of the warfare that Ukraine is having to combat precise hard, and instrumentality casualties successful troops and equipment, including the armour supplied by Nato.

When I asked the authoritative who wanted to stay anonymous astir caller tactical gains successful the east, including a fistful of tiny villages, helium lifted his manus with his digit and thumb pinching the aerial possibly fractional an inch apart.

His connection was that advancement has been slow, achy and limited, though helium expressed anticipation that mightiness change.

Senior Ukrainians are inactive doing their champion to negociate expectations astir the summertime offensive. They judge immoderate of their Western allies, arsenic good arsenic supporters successful the media, person go over-excited astir Ukraine's service and its Nato equipment.

Some Ukrainian officials acknowledged the fearfulness that gives Western leaders sleepless nights, that a nationalist illness of President Putin's authorities mightiness pb to existent information arsenic his would-be successors jockey for powerfulness successful a authorities with the world's biggest arsenal of atomic weapons.

That imaginable is definite to beryllium precocious connected the docket of the Nato summit, owed to conscionable successful Lithuania adjacent month.

President Zelensky and his advisers privation the acme to springiness them a steadfast and unequivocal way to Nato membership. They judge the champion reply to the instability successful Russia is to contiguous an robust partition to Moscow.

But the uncertainty surrounding President Putin and his regime, astir a twelvemonth and a fractional into a disastrous warfare and aft the Wagner drama, mightiness provender the anxiousness of those Nato countries who would similar the warfare to extremity astir the negotiating table, not connected the battlefield.