The GOP is on track to take the House. The question is by how much.

Republicans are connected the cusp of capturing power of the House, giving the GOP a toehold to cheque President Joe Biden and legislature Democrats contempt a disappointing midterm election.

The GOP has clinched triumph successful 217 House seats, according to The Associated Press. That’s conscionable 1 spot shy of the majority, with 14 districts inactive excessively adjacent oregon excessively aboriginal to task a winner.

With that math, the play of whether the House would flip has fixed mode to 2 different questions: When volition Republicans unafraid that 218th district, and however large volition their bulk be?

Both travel down to California, which has 10 of the remaining 14 uncalled races amid the state’s protracted ballot count.

The GOP campaigner leads successful 4 of the 14 to-be-determined contests, including 2 successful California by important margins: GOP Rep. Mike Garcia northbound of Los Angeles and Republican campaigner Kevin Kiley successful the High Sierras. Either contention could beryllium called arsenic aboriginal arsenic Tuesday.

And determination are 2 different California races — an unfastened spot successful the Central Valley and Democratic Rep. Katie Porter’s reelection contention successful Orange County — wherever Republicans stay firmly successful the hunt to pad their constrictive advantage. Republican Scott Baugh slashed Porter’s pb successful Monday’s ballot number to astir 2,900 votes erstwhile Orange County began counting ballots formed past Tuesday connected Election Day.

“Pre-election time votes thin to favour Democrats and Election Day votes thin to favour Republicans. I’m hopeful the remaining Election Day votes proceed to favour Republicans,” Baugh told the Orange County Register successful a connection Monday night.

Republicans approached the brink of the bulk acknowledgment to 5 victories connected Monday night: The AP declared Reps. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) and Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) won their races, and GOP candidates Juan Ciscomani and Brandon Williams secured unfastened seats successful Arizona and New York, respectively.

Democrats person already protected their 50-seat Senate majority, and they tin adhd a 51st spot if Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock defeats GOP challenger Herschel Walker successful a runoff predetermination connected Dec. 6.

But a GOP House triumph — adjacent by the narrowest of margins — would empower the enactment to stymie Biden’s legislative agenda, measurement up oversight of his medication and motorboat investigations of his household members, arsenic Republicans person threatened to do.

As Republicans look for that 218th Republican House seat, Garcia’s contention successful Southern California whitethorn beryllium the astir imminent call. Democrat Christy Smith — who is mounting her 3rd bid for the spot aft losing to Garcia by a wide borderline successful a 2020 peculiar predetermination and a precise tiny borderline that successful the 2020 wide predetermination — has trailed Garcia passim the ballot count. The latest results amusement Garcia ahead, 54 percent to 46 percent, with astir two-thirds of the estimated votes tallied.

The latest AP number pegs Democrats astatine 204 House seats. They person the pb successful 10 races, including the 2 tenuous California districts mentioned earlier. But winning each 10 would inactive permission the enactment 4 seats shy of the majority.

One of those leads is expected to beryllium cemented Tuesday afternoon, erstwhile predetermination officials successful Maine behaviour the ranked-choice tabulation needed due to the fact that neither Democratic Rep. Jared Golden (48.2 percent) nor erstwhile GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin (44.9 percent) secured a bulk of the ballot past week, according to unofficial results. Golden lone needs a tiny percent of second-place votes to unafraid reelection.