2 years ago
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21m ago
Tonight: Live Estimates After the Polls Close
Welcome to The Times’s predetermination forecast. We usage aboriginal returns and polling information to estimation successful existent clip the result of the elections for Senate and House control. Here’s however it works ›
Senate races
Waiting for estimates to show cardinal races. |
House races
Waiting for estimates to show cardinal races. |
Our Senate forecast is based connected past results, polling information and the existent ballot count. These are our estimates for which enactment volition triumph power of the Senate, and the estimated fig of seats won by each party.
Chance of Senate control
No estimates yet
Estimated Senate seats
No estimates yet
Chance of control
No estimates yet
Estimated Senate seats
No estimates yet
Our Senate forecast is based connected past results, polling information and the existent ballot count. These are our estimates for which enactment volition triumph power of the Senate, and the estimated fig of seats won by each party.
Chance of control
No estimates yet
Estimated Senate seats
No estimates yet
Estimated num. of seats
Chance of control
No estimates yet
Estimated Senate seats
No estimates yet
Key Senate races
The estimates for each contention are based connected the votes reported truthful far, humanities voting data, and the results of demographically akin places wherever votes person been counted.
Waiting for estimates to show cardinal races. |
How our Senate forecast has changed
These charts amusement however our forecasts person changed implicit the people of the night. As a rule, erstwhile the creation estimation is dependable successful the beingness of caller results, our forecast is much trustworthy.
Est. margin
Best guess
50% of outcomes
95%
Senate creation estimate
The lines beneath see an estimation of uncertainty. As much races are called, the uncertainty astir these estimates volition narrow.
Chance of Senate control
Our House forecast is based connected past results, polling information and the existent ballot count. These are our estimates for which enactment volition triumph power of the House, and the estimated fig of seats won by each party.
Chance of House control
No estimates yet
Estimated House seats
No estimates yet
Chance of control
No estimates yet
Estimated House seats
No estimates yet
Our House forecast is based connected past results, polling information and the existent ballot count. These are our estimates for which enactment volition triumph power of the House, and the estimated fig of seats won by each party.
Chance of control
No estimates yet
Estimated House seats
No estimates yet
Estimated num. of seats
Chance of control
No estimates yet
Estimated House seats
No estimates yet
Key House races
The estimates for each contention are based connected the votes reported truthful far, however those places person voted successful erstwhile elections and the results of demographically akin places wherever votes person been counted.
Waiting for estimates to show cardinal races. |
How our House forecast has changed
These charts amusement however our forecasts person changed implicit the people of the night. As a rule, erstwhile the creation estimation is dependable successful the beingness of caller results, our forecast is much trustworthy.
Est. margin
Best guess
50% of outcomes
95%
House creation estimate
The lines beneath see an estimation of uncertainty. As much races are called, the uncertainty astir these estimates volition narrow.
Chance of House control
Analyzing the vote
Your usher to the midterm results, from Times reporters
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Results timing ›
Results successful cardinal Senate races could instrumentality awhile
Six of the 8 astir competitory Senate races are successful states that did not telephone a victor successful the statesmanlike contention until aft predetermination night: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. What we expect this year › — Alicia Parlapiano 2h ago
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Early returns
Be wary of ‘mirages’ connected predetermination night
Because of the bid successful which antithetic types of ballots are counted, aboriginal returns tin beryllium misleading. In 2020, Virginia’s aboriginal ballot for president favored Republicans, portion Pennsylvania’s skewed toward Democrats. These “mirages” amusement that ballot margins aboriginal successful the nighttime tin alteration significantly. — Lazaro Gamio 2h ago
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When polls close ›
Polls successful astir states volition adjacent by 9 p.m. Eastern
Results volition statesman coming successful astatine 6 p.m. Eastern arsenic the archetypal polls adjacent successful Indiana and Kentucky, but the gait volition truly prime up with a slew of closings astatine 7 and 8. By 9 p.m., the polls volition person closed successful a bulk of states. — Maggie Astor 2h ago
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