The perils of a narrow House Republican majority - Axios

House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) delivers remarks to supporters alongside RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel and Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) astatine a ticker enactment successful Washington, D.C. Photo: Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images

House Republicans are coming to grips with the harsh world of what a single-digit bulk could look similar — starting with a recently empowered far-right flank that could earnestly endanger GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy's House talker ambitions.

Why it matters: McCarthy, who arguably took a much hands-on attack to campaigner recruitment and fundraising than immoderate past House GOP leader, is present successful an highly susceptible position.

• McCarthy had planned to instrumentality the signifier astatine his predetermination nighttime enactment to state triumph arsenic aboriginal arsenic 10 p.m. ET — expecting a reddish question would enactment him connected a glide way to becoming House speaker.
• But the reddish question ne'er came, and adjacent his 2am declaration that Republicans would beryllium successful the bulk erstwhile attendees woke up successful the greeting failed to travel to fruition.

State of play: With specified small wiggle country for dissent, McCarthy's hunt for the 218 votes needed to beryllium elected talker has go much hard than he'd expected.

• Privately, House GOP lawmakers and aides archer Axios they're unsure helium tin propulsion it off. Some are adjacent saying arsenic much publicly.
• "Kevin McCarthy has not done thing to gain my ballot for speaker," Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), a House Freedom Caucus committee member, told Axios pursuing an HFC committee telephone Wednesday.
• “I judge there’s a fig of members who consciousness arsenic I bash and who volition enactment a situation to him arsenic the talker erstwhile we convene adjacent week,” Good added. "I don’t deliberation helium has the votes."

Between the lines: The Freedom Caucus and others connected the GOP conference's far-right are already plotting however they tin leverage this caller dynamic to their advantage, with plans to unit McCarthy and different leaders to marque monolithic concessions to unafraid their positions successful power.

• It's improbable that aggregate members volition travel guardant to situation him for the talker role, according to conversations Axios had with a bid of House GOP members and staff.
• More realistic, they say, is simply a script successful which McCarthy fails to scope the magic fig of 218 oregon indispensable springiness distant a superior magnitude of governmental superior to bash so. In this event, universally respected members similar Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) oregon Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) could measurement guardant arsenic alternatives.

What we're hearing: Some ambitious members person begun putting retired feelers for this benignant of scenario, but it's excessively soon to archer whether anyone would see making a existent effort to usurp McCarthy — fto unsocial whether they'd beryllium seen arsenic a viable alternative. McCarthy volition besides get, and deserves, recognition for flipping the House, our sources note.

Zoom in: The GOP whip's race, meanwhile, was ever going to beryllium the astir competitory enactment contention — but it's grown adjacent fiercer successful the past 24 hours.

Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), seat of the National Republican Campaign Committee, is astatine a disadvantage owed to wide disappointment astir the GOP's performance.

• Emmer was hoping to usage a beardown predetermination result arsenic his main selling constituent for becoming whip. He's arguing to his colleagues that contempt the underwhelming results, his enactment was instrumental successful taking the majority.
• Many members echoed that sentiment to Axios, crediting the NRCC main for massively outspending Democrats this rhythm and helping clinch an wide win.

Reps. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) and Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.) have besides been calling members successful an aboriginal effort to fastener down votes for the race.

• Several members, galore of whom beryllium connected the Republican Study Committee that Banks chairs, told Axios they deliberation Banks could beryllium palmy due to the fact that helium tin power the blimpish helping of the conference.

Timing: It's inactive unclear whether enactment elections volition instrumentality spot connected Nov. 14, arsenic planned. Some members person made the lawsuit that moving rapidly works to McCarthy's and Emmer's benefit, portion others person argued they don't spot however the day isn't delayed now.

The large picture: Nearly each GOP subordinate and adjutant Axios spoke with said the party's underperformance was driven by campaigner quality, underestimating the lasting fallout from the Supreme Court's termination determination and an over-reliance connected erstwhile President Trump's prima power.

What they're saying: "People are disappointed, and I deliberation the world is hitting everyone contiguous that it's not going to beryllium easy," Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas) told Axios.

• "Governing is going to beryllium hard and it's going to instrumentality superior leaders. This is not a popularity contest. ... It's going to instrumentality superior leaders who tin determination the shot down the tract successful an effectual way. Everyone I've talked to is disquieted astir that."