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DENVER — For months, apical enactment operatives person mused that Joe O’Dea is the champion Republican campaigner moving for Senate this year.
While different GOP nominees are countering reports that they person encouraged abortions, killed puppies oregon waffled connected the 2020 predetermination being legitimate, O’Dea has been talking non-stop astir soaring inflation.
The mean Colorado Republican Senate nominee has ne'er led a nationalist canvass successful the race, and polling averages amusement O’Dea continues to way his opponent, Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, by 8 percent points. But Bennet’s support ratings are successful enactment with President Joe Biden’s, successful the debased 40s, and some parties spot the imaginable for a surprise.
So, successful the last weeks of the 2022 midterm campaign, with the GOP’s pickup prospects fading successful states similar Arizona and Georgia, nationalist Republicans are looking for backup opportunities and holding retired anticipation that O’Dea tin eke retired an upset successful a authorities that’s connected the bluer broadside of purple.
With the Senate locked successful astatine 50-50, Republicans request to summation conscionable 1 spot to extremity the chamber’s equilibrium successful their favor. But neither enactment presently has the precocious manus arsenic Election Day nears, and cardinal races successful Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia stay excessively adjacent to call.
Now, some sides are putting irons successful the occurrence successful Colorado, wherever mail-in voting begins this week.
Senate Republicans’ apical ace PAC moved $1.25 cardinal into the authorities conscionable implicit a week ago, arsenic extracurricular Democratic groups successful the past period person steered much than $9 cardinal to the Colorado race.
It’s 1 motion they aren’t consenting to instrumentality immoderate chances connected Bennet’s quality to clasp the spot for Democrats. Another was that President Joe Biden traveled to Colorado past week to tout a Bennet project.
To propulsion disconnected a triumph successful Colorado, Republicans volition not lone person to crook retired their waning base, but triumph implicit unaffiliated voters who person heavy favored Democrats successful the years since erstwhile President Donald Trump took office. And adjacent though O’Dea has maintained that the 2020 predetermination was legitimate, he’s moving to forestall Democrats from linking him to the GOP’s much utmost wing.
“Colorado is simply a pugnacious state, Bennet has been outspending Joe O’Dea, and frankly, there’s this lingering stench of stolen predetermination conspiracy crap that has pulled the enactment down overall,” said Dick Wadhams, erstwhile seat of the Colorado Republican Party.
“Bennet has not enactment this away,” Wadhams continued. “He’s had this immense spending edge, and yet helium has to beg and plead for the president to travel retired present to bash thing that Bennet could not get done successful the Senate.”
During his visit, Biden utilized his enforcement powers to designate a World War II subject grooming campy arsenic a nationalist monument, a task Bennet has pursued done authorities since taking bureau successful 2011.
Steven Law, president of the GOP’s Senate Leadership Fund ace PAC, precocious placed Colorado successful the aforesaid class arsenic 2 of Republicans’ different tough-but-possible pickup opportunities this year.
“There’s immoderate imaginable successful places similar New Hampshire, Colorado, possibly Arizona,” Law said connected an Oct. 4 occurrence of the blimpish governmental podcast “Ruthless.” Three days aft the occurrence aired, SLF enactment $1.25 cardinal into the Colorado race. The magnitude is acold little than the ace PAC is spending successful different states, though a spokesperson said the radical is continuing to ticker Colorado.
The caller SLF funds, which the radical contributed to a pro-O’Dea ace PAC successful Colorado alternatively than creating its ain ads, person gone toward a caller $1.6 million, two-week advertisement bargain successful Denver starting Tuesday.
On the time past week erstwhile Bennet appeared with Biden astatine an lawsuit southbound of Vail, O’Dea attended a Denver Chamber of Commerce campaigner forum. The split-screen of activities that time was emblematic of the candidates’ strategies.
The two-term legislator is campaigning connected Democratic accomplishments and the party’s quality to walk large authorities since taking power of Washington. It’s a maneuver that differs from different endangered Democrats, who are avoiding the president and person declared successful ads that they aren’t beholden to the party.
Bennet tin travel crossed arsenic cerebral: At the concern forum, helium opened his pre-recorded remarks with thoughts connected democracy. By contrast, O’Dea appeared successful idiosyncratic and emphasized the practical. He noted that helium has tally his ain operation institution for 35 years; “It’s called concern acumen,” helium said.
O’Dea takes pains to awesome that helium volition beryllium autarkic of his party, describing himself arsenic a “Republican Joe Manchin.”
“They’re not going to cognize wherever Joe O’Dea’s at,” O’Dea told the Chamber crowd. “I’ll subordinate the party. If McConnell wants my vote, we’re going to get bully things done for Colorado. I’ll beryllium determination and I’ll conscionable hold him out. I don’t care.”
As examples of his willingness to spell against GOP policies, O’Dea noted helium supports termination entree beyond what astir elected Republicans person called for, wants citizenship for puerility Dreamers and an easier way to ineligible migration for workers, and opposes the repeal of Obamacare, citing the request to support those with preexisting conditions.
O’Dea made a akin transportation to a country afloat of donors the nighttime before, portion acknowledging helium needs each the enactment helium tin get if helium is going to drawback up with Bennet. Mail-in ballots, which are provided to each elector successful the state, statesman organisation this week.
“Some of the polling you guys person seen, it’s benignant of a crapshoot,” O’Dea said to 50 supporters astatine the fundraiser successful Golden past week, referencing nationalist surveys astir the race.
Former Sen. Gary Hart, a Democrat, is supporting Bennet and said helium believes he’ll win, but credited O’Dea for the strategy he’s taking successful the race.
“Speaking objectively, I deliberation he’s presenting himself astir the mode helium should,” Hart said. “He’s punching each the close buttons successful presumption of his TV ads — riding horses and having his girl run for him connected TV, each those fundamental, astute politics.
“The candidates are 2 decent, 2 honorable people, not attention-getting. So it’s awfully hard to dislike either 1 of them.”
Josh Holmes, a governmental advisor who advises Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, recalls gathering O’Dea earlier his superior triumph and sensing thing “special” astir his pitch: “I deliberation beauteous quickly, Democrats came connected to the aforesaid thought we did, which is apt wherefore they spent wealth successful the superior trying to decision him.”
Democratic groups spent millions of dollars trying to descend O’Dea’s superior bid, hoping to propel a overmuch much blimpish Republican to the nomination.
In an interrogation astatine Spanky’s Roadhouse successful Denver, sipping a Michelob Ultra helium poured into a solid of ice, O’Dea elaborated connected the benignant of Republican legislator helium would be. He praised GOP Sens. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski for trying to codify termination rights up to astir 24 weeks of pregnancy, a measure O’Dea said helium is anxious to assistance get passed if he’s elected. Sen. Mitt Romney “steps retired each erstwhile successful a while” to bash what’s right, O’Dea said, adding that Sen. John Cornyn should beryllium lauded for starring bipartisan talks connected a weapon power measure this year.
O’Dea said helium would person been a nary connected convicting erstwhile President Donald Trump of impeachment — arsenic helium would beryllium connected immoderate aboriginal GOP effort to impeach Biden. As for who he’d similar to spot triumph the White House successful 2024, O’Dea rattled disconnected respective names for a aboriginal enactment leader: Tim Scott, Mike Pompeo, Tom Cotton oregon Nikki Haley, earlier adding that Ron DeSantis has done a bully occupation arsenic Florida governor.
Democrats person zeroed successful connected termination arsenic O’Dea’s largest vulnerability. Despite wanting protections for termination rights, O’Dea said helium doesn’t regret signing a petition successful 2020 successful enactment of a 22-week termination ban, which failed connected the ballot that twelvemonth and did not see exceptions for rape and incest.
“I don’t judge successful late-term termination connected command,” O’Dea said successful the interview. “I conscionable don’t.”
O’Dea maintains helium is successful favour of termination entree up to 5 months of pregnancy, with exceptions for rape, incest and the beingness of the woman.
Floyd Ciruli, a longtime Colorado pollster who present directs the University of Denver’s polling program, said governmental observers successful the authorities entered the predetermination believing determination was a accidental the Senate spot could flip.
Ciruli said there’s nary question ostentation is voters’ No. 1 concern, and that Biden isn’t peculiarly fashionable there. And helium doesn’t uncertainty that polling this twelvemonth — Colorado nary objection — is missing the afloat grade of the populist vote. All the same, disenchantment with nationalist Democrats doesn’t look to beryllium ushering successful a reddish question successful Colorado, helium said.
“We could beryllium amazed connected the 8th, but astatine the infinitesimal with wherever the polls are, there’s this consciousness that (independent voters) conscionable whitethorn not beryllium disposable to the Republicans” this twelvemonth successful Colorado, Ciruli said.
Republicans past won a Senate spot successful Colorado successful 2014, erstwhile Cory Gardner — propelled by elector dissatisfaction with Barack Obama — ousted Democratic Sen. Mark Udall by 2 percent points. Udall’s nonaccomplishment was besides attributed to his dense absorption connected termination rights implicit different issues during successful the campaign.
But nationalist polling that autumn showed a choky race, with Gardner and Udall trading disconnected the pb and remaining wrong a fewer points of each other. The neck-and-neck 2014 contention appeared overmuch much competitory successful the months starring up to the November predetermination than polling successful the existent Colorado Senate race.
Gardner mislaid reelection successful 2020, defeated by erstwhile Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper. O’Dea argues that a akin referendum connected the enactment successful powerfulness volition assistance him this time.
“Senator Gardner — who I truly similar and person a batch of respect for — John Hickenlooper was capable to tag him with voting with President Trump 100 percent of the time,” O’Dea said. “Michael Bennett has been voting with Joe Biden 98 percent of the time.”
Bennet’s run said Biden’s sojourn to the authorities past week had thing to bash with the senator’s reelection bid. In a written statement, his spokesperson said Bennet “stands up to his enactment erstwhile it’s close for Colorado,” citing Bennet’s absorption earlier this twelvemonth to a national inaugural that would harm the star sheet industry.
Laura Chapin, an termination rights advocator successful Colorado who has a T-shirt that reads “Udall was right,” said voters present recognize the stakes. Senate Republicans this autumn introduced a 15-week termination ban, which presently doesn’t person the votes to advance.
“O’Dea’s messaging is the poll-tested worldly that worked earlier Dobbs,” Chapin said. “And past Dobbs came successful and fundamentally blew everybody’s plans consecutive through. The hypothetical became real.”
Colorado, the archetypal authorities to decriminalize termination successful 1967, is 1 of lone a fistful of states without word restrictions.
In Leadville, the closest upland municipality southbound of wherever Biden appeared with Bennet connected Wednesday, Brandon Babish said what utilized to outgo him $200 a week successful groceries for a household of 3 is present $350. He’s feeling the terms astatine the state pump erstwhile helium fills up his SUV, the benignant of car helium needs during winter.
“I judge it’s astatine an all-time high, and Biden doesn’t cognize what he’s doing to alteration it,” Babish, who works arsenic a cook astatine a section restaurant, said of user costs.
But based connected what he’s heard from tv advertisements, Babish described O’Dea arsenic an anti-choice extremist who doesn’t privation women to person entree to abortions if they’re raped.
“I deliberation Bennet is astir apt the amended prime than Joe,” said Babish, whose cognition connected the contention is apt akin to galore different independents who are dissatisfied with the authorities of the state but person not recovered Bennet to beryllium peculiarly problematic.
O’Dea hasn’t travel adjacent to matching what Democrats person spent connected tv attacking him connected abortion. Bennet, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and a ace PAC person spent a combined $1.6 cardinal connected tv ads portraying O’Dea arsenic a campaigner opposed to termination rights. In contrast, O’Dea’s run spent conscionable $108,000 connected tv ads telling voters helium supports a woman’s close to an termination up to 5 months into pregnancy, according to the advertisement tracking steadfast AdImpact.
The O’Dea run has paid for different outreach to amended voters connected his termination presumption — 1 that’s much wide than immoderate different GOP Senate campaigner this twelvemonth — including substance messages to pistillate plaything voters and Google hunt results.
Swing voters whitethorn not beryllium O’Dea’s lone problem, however. He’ll request Colorado conservatives to rally down him, too.
In astatine slightest 1 captious portion of the authorities for the GOP, the section Republican Party is successful shambles. In El Paso County, an country O’Dea volition request to triumph with precocious margins to offset Bennet’s numbers elsewhere, immoderate section Republican leaders are encouraging voters to leave races blank connected their ballots alternatively than enactment candidates they don’t judge are sufficiently conservative. O’Dea’s superior hostile Ron Hanks, who ran overmuch further to the close but captured 46 percent of the GOP vote, has endorsed the libertarian campaigner successful the Senate race.
Alan Salazar, a seasoned of Colorado Democratic campaigns who presently serves arsenic the Denver mayor’s main of staff, said helium imagines the last results could beryllium person than expected if Republicans adjacent retired the contention successful a beardown way. But Bennet has been taking the contention seriously, Salazar said.
“You ne'er instrumentality it for granted,” Salazar said. “My consciousness is if we get the ballot out, Michael volition beryllium reelected, but he’ll person to enactment astatine it.”
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