The Ukraine offensive: What will win it or lose it?

"Don't telephone it a counter-offensive," accidental the Ukrainians. "This is our offensive, it's our accidental to yet thrust retired the Russian service from our land."

Alright, but what volition it instrumentality to really succeed?

First off, let's not get distracted by the caller hard-fought but tiny territorial gains Ukraine has been making arsenic it retakes obscure, half-abandoned villages successful the eastbound Donetsk and south-eastern Zaporizhzhia regions.

After months of stalemate, images of victorious, battle-stained Ukrainian soldiers holding up their country's bluish and yellowish emblem successful beforehand of a bullet-ridden gathering is simply a invited morale boost for Ukrainians.

But successful the large strategical picture, this is simply a sideshow.

The country of Russian-held territory that matters astir successful this run is the south: the country betwixt the metropolis of Zaporizhzhia and the Sea of Azov.

This is the alleged "land corridor" that connects Russia to illegally annexed Crimea, the cardinal portion of that purple-shaded portion connected the representation beneath that has hardly changed since the aboriginal weeks of the penetration past year.

If Ukraine tin divided that successful 2 and clasp the crushed it's retaken, past its violative volition person mostly been successful.

It would chopped disconnected Russia's troops successful the westbound and marque it hard to resupply their garrison successful Crimea.

It would not needfully spell an extremity to the warfare - which immoderate are present predicting could resistance connected for years - but it would enactment Ukraine successful a beardown bargaining presumption erstwhile the inevitable bid talks yet instrumentality place.

But the Russians person looked astatine the map, rather immoderate clip ago, and reached the aforesaid conclusion.

So portion Ukraine sent its soldiers disconnected to Nato countries for grooming and readied their 12 armoured brigades for this summertime campaign, Moscow spent that clip constructing what is present being called "the astir formidable antiaircraft fortifications successful the world".

Blocking Ukraine's way to the seashore - its ain coast, let's not hide - are furniture upon furniture of Russian minefields, factual tank-blockers (known arsenic "dragons' teeth") bunkers, firing positions and trenches wide capable and heavy capable to halt a Leopard 2 oregon M1 Abrams vessel virtually successful its tracks.

All of this is covered by pre-determined artillery interaction zones calibrated to rainfall down precocious explosive connected Ukraine's armoured vehicles arsenic they and their crews hold for their engineers to find a mode through.

The aboriginal signs are - and it is inactive precise aboriginal successful this run - that those Russian defences are truthful acold holding fast.

Ukraine has yet to perpetrate the bulk of its forces - truthful these are probing, reconnaissance attacks designed to uncover the whereabouts of Russia's artillery and hunt retired areas of vulnerability successful their lines.

In Ukraine's favour is morale. Its soldiers are highly-motivated and warring to liberate their ain state from an invader.

Most of Russia's troops bash not stock that motivation, and successful galore cases their training, instrumentality and enactment are inferior to Ukraine's.

The General Staff backmost successful Kyiv volition beryllium hoping that if they tin execute a capable breakthrough past a illness successful Russian morale volition beryllium contagious, spreading crossed the battlefront arsenic demoralised Russian troops suffer the volition to fight.

Also successful Ukraine's favour is the prime of hardware that Nato countries person provided. Unlike Soviet-designed armoured vehicles, Nato's tanks and infantry warring vehicles tin often withstand a nonstop hit, oregon astatine slightest capable to support the unit wrong who past unrecorded to combat on.

But volition that beryllium capable to antagonistic the spot of Russia's artillery and drone attacks?

Russia, arsenic the vastly bigger country, tin gully connected much resources than Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin, who started this warfare successful the archetypal place, knows that if helium tin lone deterioration down the Ukrainians into a stalemate that drags connected into adjacent twelvemonth past determination is simply a accidental that the US and different allies volition tyre of supporting this costly warfare effort and commencement to unit Kyiv to scope a ceasefire compromise.

Finally, determination is the substance of aerial cover, oregon deficiency of it. Attacking a good dug-in force without capable adjacent aerial enactment is highly risky.

Ukraine knows this, which is wherefore it's agelong been pleading with the West to proviso it with F16 combatant jets.

The US, which makes them, did not springiness the greenish airy for this until precocious May, by which clip the first, preparatory, signifier of Ukraine's violative was already nether way.

Critically for Ukraine, the game-changing F16s whitethorn present get excessively precocious connected the battlefield to play a cardinal relation successful the aboriginal phases of this counter-offensive.

This is not to accidental the Ukrainians volition lose.

Time and again they person proved themselves agile, resourceful and inventive. They successfully drove the Russian service retired of Kherson by hitting their rear-area logistics hubs to the constituent wherever the Russians could nary longer resupply their troops successful that confederate city.

Equipped with long-range weapons similar Britain's Storm Shadow cruise missile, Ukraine volition beryllium attempting to bash the aforesaid now.

But amidst each the assertion and counter-claim of a propaganda war, it whitethorn yet beryllium weeks oregon adjacent months earlier we get a clearer representation of who is apt to yet prevail successful this war.