The US is the world's biggest corn exporter - but for how long?

Across the plains of America known arsenic the Corn Belt, farmers are spending their days and nights nurturing, tending to and praying for the wellbeing of this communal yet globally important food.

Scott Haerr, who harvests 4,000 acres of maize each twelvemonth (an country astir five-times the size of New York's Central Park), is one. Inside a monolithic atom silo connected his workplace successful occidental Ohio, the third-generation husbandman examines maize kernels from past year's harvest. "That's immoderate existent bully corn," helium says, sifting done a handful.

But portion the prime of past year's harvest whitethorn person been good, the quantity produced by US farmers was thing but.

Rising fertiliser and substance prices saw the fig of acres planted autumn by 3.4m compared to 2021. On apical of that, a drought successful the occidental plains fuelled an summation successful the terms of US maize connected the planetary market.

"We had a weather-reduced crop, and we had the Mississippi River drying up past autumn and aboriginal wintertime that slowed our exports mode down," Mr Haerr says. "Because of that, the terms of maize went up which made america little competitive."

American farmers' hard enactment and technological expertise has cemented its spot astatine the apical of the heap erstwhile it comes to maize exports. Every year, tens of millions of tonnes are shipped from the US to much than 60 countries astir the globe.

But its maize superpower presumption whitethorn beryllium coming to an end. In fact, aft decades astatine the top, it is connected the verge of being overtaken arsenic the world's biggest exporter of the crop.

Buyers successful China - the world's biggest importer of maize - person been cancelling orders from the US, successful ample portion due to the fact that determination are cheaper alternatives elsewhere.

In January, income of US maize to China were arsenic overmuch arsenic 70% beneath erstwhile years' levels. And successful May, China started buying South African maize for the archetypal time. It is simply a troubling inclination for US farmers.

It is not conscionable China backing distant from US corn: Reuters precocious reported that exports to each destinations excluding China were astatine their second-lowest successful 2 decades. Mexico, which buys astir $5bn (£3.9bn) worthy of US maize each year, is moving distant from the genetically modified variety, a ample magnitude of which comes from its bluish neighbour.

One state unsocial stands to payment from this inclination - Brazil.

Farmers determination person been converting swathes of cultivation onshore from pasture to maize fields successful caller years, experts say. Brazil's further vantage is that its farmers are capable to harvest not 1 but 2 crops of maize a year.

"Last twelvemonth successful particular, they had a batch much exportable banal than we did present successful the US," says Frayne Olson, a harvest economist astatine North Dakota State University. "The longer-term inclination is that Brazil is expanding its maize production, it's becoming a overmuch much ascendant player."

China has moved accordingly, expanding its orders of Brazilian maize significantly. The 2 countries person besides signed a bid of agreements that volition let much maize beryllium shipped from Brazil to China.

The determination by China to diversify nutrient imports is apt spurred by a operation of factors, according to Harry Murphy Cruise, a China economist astatine Moody's Analytics. Aside from terms advantages, accrued tensions betwixt the US and China are pushing Beijing to rapidly diversify successful lawsuit things deteriorate.

"Trade is simply a cardinal instrumentality successful the arsenal of each policymakers," helium said. "There is simply a imaginable that China is utilizing commercialized arsenic a signifier of economical coercion."

Mr Cruise said high-profile battles implicit things similar semiconductors, electronics and batteries were not the lone examples of however China has changed its commercialized narration with the US.

"It's broader than that," Mr Cruise said, noting that China was looking to mitigate hazard and enactment up proviso chains for captious goods.

"Food and livestock provender are astir arsenic captious arsenic it gets," helium said.

Back successful the US, maize prices person been precocious for galore of the aforesaid reasons astir different products and services are costly today: inflation. For farmers, the rising costs of machinery, seeds and farmland person eaten into their bottommost line.

"When you look astatine the biggest differential successful the outgo of producing maize successful the US versus Brazil oregon South Africa oregon Argentina, it's astir apt land," says Frayne Olson.

The terms per-acre of onshore successful Iowa, the largest corn-producing authorities successful the US, accrued 29% successful 2021 and a further 17% successful 2022, the highest connected record. In Illinois, the second-largest shaper of corn, farmland rent deed grounds prices past year.

Economists say, however, that Brazil's emergence is not apt to person a large interaction connected the day-to-day lives of Americans - agriculture does not transportation the aforesaid economical value of decades past.

"Agriculture is important - nutrient supplies are captious - but it's not a immense portion of the full economy," says Mr Olson.

Farmer Scott Haerr, meanwhile, says helium is not readying to trim the fig of acres of maize helium plants, since the outgo of fertiliser and substance has eased from past year's highs.

"But we are acceptable to pivot, if we request to," helium says. He believes there's small to beryllium done to halt Brazil's accelerated rise, but that doesn't mean American farmers are retired of the export game.

"Indonesia is not importing immoderate maize close now, but their imaginable for ethanol (produced from corn) maturation is huge," helium says. Earlier this twelvemonth helium and different Ohio maize farmers toured countries successful South East Asia to perceive first-hand what buyers want.

"We request to marque definite we are trying to make caller markets," helium says.

Additional reporting by the BBC's Derek Cai successful Singapore