The week of rising stakes in the Ukraine war

The stakes person ne'er been higher successful the Ukraine-Russia war.

In the week that saw the struggle walk its 1000th day, Western powers substantially boosted Ukraine's subject arsenal - and the Kremlin made its loudest threats yet of a atomic strike.

Here is however the past week played retired - and what it means.

Late connected Sunday night, reports emerged that outgoing US President Joe Biden had fixed Ukraine support to usage longer-range ATACMS missiles to onslaught targets wrong Russia.

The determination marked a large argumentation alteration by Washington - which for months had refused Ukraine’s requests to usage the missiles beyond its ain borders.

After the determination was leaked to the press, a volley of ATACMS missiles were fired by Ukraine into Russia’s Bryansk region.

The Kremlin said six were fired, with 5 intercepted, portion anonymous US officials claimed it was eight, with 2 intercepted.

Whatever the specifics, this was a landmark moment: American-made missiles had struck Russian ungraded for the archetypal clip successful this war.

Then connected Wednesday, Ukraine launched UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles astatine targets successful Russia’s Kursk portion - wherever Ukrainian troops person seized a astir 600-sq km (232 sq mile) spot of Russian territory.

Later successful the week, Biden added the last constituent of a ramped-up weapons arsenal to Ukraine by approving the usage of anti-personnel landmines.

Simple, controversial, but highly-effective, landmines are a important portion of Ukraine’s defences connected the eastbound frontline - and it is hoped their usage could assistance dilatory Russia's advance.

With 3 swift decisions, implicit a fewer seismic days, the West signalled to the satellite that its enactment for Ukraine was not astir to vanish.

If Ukraine’s occidental allies raised the stakes this week - truthful excessively did Moscow.

On Tuesday, the 1000th time of the war, Putin pushed done changes to Russia's atomic doctrine, lowering the threshold for the usage of atomic weapons.

The doctrine present says an onslaught from a non-nuclear state, if backed by a atomic power, volition beryllium treated arsenic a associated battle connected Russia.

The Kremlin past took its effect a measurement further by deploying a caller benignant of rocket - "Oreshnik" - to onslaught the Ukrainian metropolis of Dnipro.

Putin claimed it travelled astatine 10 times the velocity of dependable - and that determination are "no ways of counteracting this weapon".

Most observers hold the onslaught was designed to nonstop a warning: that Russia could, if it chose, usage the caller rocket to present a atomic weapon.

Such posturing would erstwhile person caused superior interest successful the West. Now, not truthful much.

Since the commencement of the struggle astir 3 years ago, Putin has repeatedly laid retired atomic "red lines’" which the West has repeatedly crossed. It seems galore person go utilized to Russia’s atomic “sabre-rattling”.

And wherefore other bash Western leaders consciousness acceptable to gamble with Russia’s atomic threats? China.

Beijing has go a captious spouse for Moscow successful its efforts to soften the interaction of sanctions imposed by the US and different countries.

China, the West believes, would respond with fearfulness astatine the usage of atomic weapons - frankincense discouraging Putin from making existent connected his threats.

• What we cognize astir Russia's Oreshnik missile

In a uncommon televised code connected Thursday evening, the Russian president warned that the warfare had "acquired elements of a planetary character".

That appraisal was echoed by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who said "the menace is superior and existent erstwhile it comes to planetary conflict".

The US and UK are present much profoundly progressive than ever - portion the deployment of North Korean troops to combat alongside Russia saw different atomic powerfulness participate the war.

North Korean person Kim Jong Un said connected Thursday that "never before" has the menace of a atomic warfare been greater, blaming the US for its "aggressive and hostile" argumentation towards Pyongyang.

So, wherefore are we seeing these developments now?

The apt crushed is the impending accomplishment of US President-elect Donald Trump, who volition officially participate the White House connected 20 January.

While connected the run trail, Trump vowed to extremity the warfare wrong “24 hours”.

Those astir him, similar Vice President-elect JD Vance, person signalled that volition mean compromises for Ukraine, apt successful the signifier of giving up territory successful the Donbas and Crimea.

That goes against the evident stance of the Biden medication - whose decisions this week constituent to a tendency to get arsenic overmuch assistance done the doorway arsenic imaginable earlier Trump enters office.

But immoderate are much bullish astir Ukraine’s prospects with Trump successful power.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said himself Kyiv would similar to extremity the warfare done “diplomatic means” successful 2025.

Former Ukrainian overseas curate Dmytro Kuleba told the BBC this week: “President Trump volition undoubtedly beryllium driven by 1 goal, to task his strength, his leadership... And amusement that helium is susceptible of fixing problems which his predecessor failed to fix.”

“As overmuch arsenic the autumn of Afghanistan inflicted a terrible coiled connected the overseas argumentation estimation of the Biden administration, if the script you mentioned is to beryllium entertained by President Trump, Ukraine volition go his Afghanistan, with adjacent consequences."

“And I don’t deliberation this is what he’s looking for.”

This week's developments whitethorn not beryllium the commencement of the warfare escalating retired of power - but the commencement of a tussle for the strongest negotiating presumption successful imaginable aboriginal talks to extremity it.