Trump wants to take Greenland: Four ways this saga could go

In caller weeks, US President-elect Donald Trump has shown renewed involvement successful taking power of Greenland, a mostly autonomous territory of Denmark successful the Arctic and the world's largest island.

He archetypal indicated an volition to bargain Greenland successful 2019, during his archetypal word arsenic president, but this week helium went further, refusing to regularisation retired economical oregon subject unit to instrumentality power of it.

Danish and European officials person responded negatively, saying Greenland is not for merchantability and its territorial integrity indispensable beryllium preserved.

So however could this antithetic concern play out, with 2 Nato allies astatine likelihood implicit a immense territory which is 80% covered with crystal but has sizeable untapped mineral wealth?

And however could the aspirations for independency among Greenland's colonisation of 56,000, nether Danish power for 300 years, impact the last outcome?

Here we look astatine 4 imaginable scenarios for Greenland's future.

There is immoderate speculation that Trump's determination is conscionable bluster, a determination to get Denmark to boost Greenland's information successful the look of the menace of some Russia and China seeking power successful the region.

Last month, Denmark announced a caller $1.5bn (£1.2bn) subject package for the Arctic. It had been prepared earlier Trump's remarks but the announcement conscionable hours aft them was described by the Danish defence curate arsenic an "irony of fate".

"What was important successful what Trump said was that Denmark has to fulfil its obligations successful the Arctic oregon it's got to fto the US bash it," says Elisabet Svane, main governmental analogous for Politiken newspaper.

Marc Jacobsen, subordinate prof astatine the Royal Danish Defence College, believes that this is simply a lawsuit of Trump "positioning himself earlier entering office" portion Greenland is utilizing the juncture to summation much planetary authority, arsenic an important measurement towards independence.

So adjacent if Trump were to suffer further involvement successful Greenland now, which Professor Jacobsen thinks is the astir apt scenario, helium has surely enactment the spotlight connected the issue.

But independency for Greenland has been connected the docket for galore years, and immoderate accidental the statement could adjacent spell successful the other direction.

"I noticed successful the past fewer days the Greenland PM is calmer successful his comments - ie. yes, we privation independency but successful the agelong run," says Svane.

There is simply a wide statement successful Greenland that independency volition hap eventually, and besides that if Greenland votes for it, Denmark volition judge and ratify it.

However, it is besides improbable that Greenland would ballot for independency unless its radical are fixed guarantees that they tin support the subsidies they presently get from Denmark to wage for things similar healthcare and the payment system.

"The Greenland PM whitethorn beryllium up successful arms now, but successful the lawsuit that helium really calls a referendum, helium volition request immoderate benignant of convincing communicative astir however to prevention the Greenland system and payment system," Ulrik Gad, a elder researcher astatine the Danish Institute for International Studies, told the BBC.

One imaginable adjacent measurement is simply a escaped relation - thing similar the US presently has with Pacific states the Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Palau.

Denmark has antecedently opposed this presumption some for Greenland and for the Faroe Islands, but according to Dr Gad, existent Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is not categorically against it.

"Danish knowing of the Greenland humanities acquisition is mode amended than it was 20 years ago," helium says, with Denmark accepting assemblage responsibility.

The caller discussions "might transportation [Frederiksen] to accidental - amended to support Denmark successful the Arctic, support immoderate benignant of transportation to Greenland, adjacent if it's a looser one", helium adds.

But adjacent if Greenland is capable to get escaped of Denmark, it has go wide successful caller years that it can't get escaped of the US. The Americans ne'er truly near aft taking power of the land successful World War Two, and spot it arsenic captious for their security.

An statement successful 1951 affirmed Denmark's basal sovereignty of the land but, successful effect, gave the US immoderate it wanted.

Dr Gad said that Greenland officials had been successful interaction with the past 2 US administrations astir Washington's role.

"They present cognize the US volition ne'er leave," helium said.

There has been speculation that Trump's economical rhetoric is perchance the biggest menace to Denmark - with the US drastically expanding tariffs connected Danish, oregon adjacent EU, goods, forcing Denmark into concessions of immoderate benignant implicit Greenland.

Professor Jacobsen says Danish governments person been preparing for that, and not conscionable due to the fact that of the Arctic territory.

Trump has been threatening cosmopolitan 10% tariffs connected each US imports which could, among different things, importantly disrupt European growth, and immoderate Danish and different European companies are present considering mounting up manufacturing bases successful the US.

Possible options for raising tariffs see by invoking the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), Benjamin Cote of planetary instrumentality steadfast Pillsbury told the website MarketWatch.

One of the main Danish industries perchance affected by this is pharmaceuticals. The US receives products specified arsenic proceeding immunodeficiency and astir of its insulin from Denmark, arsenic good arsenic the diabetes cause Ozempic, made by the Danish institution Novo Nordisk.

Analysts accidental the hike successful prices that would effect from these measures would not find favour with the US public.

The "nuclear option" seems far-fetched, but with Trump failing to regularisation retired subject enactment it has to beryllium considered.

Essentially, it wouldn't beryllium hard for the US to instrumentality control, fixed that they already person bases and plentifulness of troops successful Greenland.

"The US has de facto power already," says Professor Jacobsen, adding that Trump's remarks seemed ill-informed and helium didn't recognize the constituent of them.

That said, immoderate usage of subject unit by Washington would make an planetary incident.

"If they invade Greenland, they invade Nato," says Svane. "So that's wherever it stops. Article 5 would person to beryllium triggered. And if a Nato state invades Nato past there's nary Nato."

Dr Gad says Trump sounds similar Chinese President Xi Jinping talking astir Taiwan oregon Russia's Vladimir Putin talking astir Ukraine.

"He's saying it's morganatic for america to instrumentality this portion of land," helium says. "If we instrumentality him truly earnestly this is simply a atrocious omen for the full of the Western alliance."