Ukraine aid under threat in Republican-controlled House - Axios

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) publically confirmed Tuesday what galore successful Washington and Europe privately fear: a Republican-controlled House could unopen disconnected the spigot backing Ukraine's efforts to support itself against Russia's invasion.

Why it matters: Unlike assertive oversight hearings oregon governmental messaging bills, a Republican majority's attack to Ukraine would reverberate acold beyond the Beltway. A simplification oregon halt successful U.S. subject assistance would make a geopolitical earthquake with the imaginable to change the trajectory of Russian President Vladimir Putin's war.

What's happening: Even House Republicans who person been outspoken astir supporting Ukraine — including McCarthy, who this week compared Putin to Hitler — accidental determination has been a noticeable displacement distant from what was erstwhile a wide bipartisan consensus.

• "I deliberation radical are gonna beryllium sitting successful a recession and they’re not going to constitute a blank cheque to Ukraine. They conscionable won’t bash it," McCarthy said successful an interrogation with Punchbowl News.
• "I've noticed it. You spot it a small spot connected societal media, you spot it with immoderate of our members," said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), though helium added helium doesn't judge the bulk of the league shares those views.
• Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.) said the displacement is apt being driven by feedback from constituents, telling Axios: "When radical are seeing a 13% summation successful market prices; energy, inferior bills doubling ... if you're a borderline assemblage and you're being overrun by migrants and fentanyl, Ukraine is the furthest happening from your mind."

State of play: In May, 57 House Republicans voted "no" connected a $40 cardinal assistance bundle to Ukraine. That fig is poised to emergence considerably, particularly if much skeptical Republican candidates are swept into Congress successful a GOP wave.

• "After the $40 billion, determination were a batch of Republicans saying, 'This is the past clip I'm going to enactment Ukraine funding,'" said 1 elder House Republican.
• "Another cardinal to Ukraine and 87,000 caller IRS agents," tweeted Texas campaigner Wesley Hunt successful August. "At this complaint we should astatine slightest marque them the 51st authorities truthful they tin commencement paying immoderate national income tax."

The intrigue: Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), a steadfast Ukraine protagonist who is besides a vocal professional of his party's blimpish flank, said Republican enactment has been "tiptoeing away" from supporting Ukraine for governmental reasons.

• "Kevin McCarthy, let's beryllium wide ... his full beingness close present is to delight capable radical to triumph the speakership," Kinzinger told Axios.
• A GOP legislature adjutant echoed that sentiment and said interest astir the House is "overstated," suggesting McCarthy is "counting votes for Speaker and doesn't privation to stone the vessel up of time."

Behind the scenes: Even if McCarthy is conscionable posturing, blimpish factions successful Congress are actively moving to reason aboriginal assistance spending — buoyed by a almighty analyzable of extracurricular groups that includes the Heritage Foundation, the Koch network, FreedomWorks and the Center for Renewing America.

• Dan Caldwell, a elder advisor to Concerned Veterans for America and vice president for overseas argumentation astatine Stand Together, some portion of the Koch network, told Axios his groups person been sending polling to lawmakers and "activated our grassroots service to lobby members to enactment a amended Ukraine policy."
• Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), seat of the 158-member Republican Study Committee, told Axios: "RSC believes you can’t pb overseas erstwhile you’re truthful anemic astatine home. Our GOP docket successful the caller Majority needs to unafraid our ain borderline and get America backmost connected our feet by addressing vigor outgo and inflation."

What to watch: The enactment is agreed connected astatine slightest 1 presumption erstwhile it comes to Ukraine: determination should beryllium a thorough accounting of each dollar sent.

• "What Republicans privation to spot is much accountability and oversight, and besides to marque definite it's going for the close purpose," said Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the apical Republican connected the Foreign Affairs Committee and different vocal Ukraine supporter.
• McCaul added that his colleagues person grumbled astir the U.S. footing the measure to a greater grade than different ample NATO allies, similar Germany and France.