Ukraine counter-offensive two months in: Can it still succeed?

The warfare successful Ukraine has reached a captious point. Where it goes from present could determine the country's aboriginal and impact the information of Europe.

In the 18 months since Russia invaded, the Ukrainians person mostly been connected the defensive, preventing Moscow's forces from seizing much territory.

But this summer, Ukraine - with the assistance of billions of pounds of Western subject instrumentality - has gone connected the attack, attempting to expel the Russians from onshore they antecedently captured successful the eastbound and southbound of the country.

Two months into this counter-offensive, and with clip of the essence earlier the onset of winter, are Ukrainian troops making immoderate existent progress?

Working with BBC Verify, we person analysed video of the warring and spoken to experts to effort to reply that question.

One look astatine a large-scale representation of eastbound and confederate Ukraine shows that not overmuch has changed successful the 2 months since the counter-offensive began.

Russia inactive occupies astir one-fifth of Ukraine - including the cities of Donetsk, successful the east, and Mariupol, which it captured after months of siege - and its forces are good dug in.

In fact, not overmuch has changed successful the 9 months since November 2022, erstwhile Ukraine made its past important gain, retaking the confederate metropolis of Kherson and ample areas successful the north-east.

But it hasn't each been atrocious quality for Ukraine.

It says its troops person precocious retaken the colony of Staromaiorske successful the Donetsk region. The BBC has verified video which supports that claim.

Around Bakhmut, successful the east, wherever determination has been aggravated fighting, Ukraine has besides regained immoderate tiny areas that it mislaid earlier successful the summer.

And it has besides made tiny gains successful the Zaporizhzhia portion successful the southbound - a cardinal country wherever Ukraine truly needs to marque a decisive difference.

A Ukrainian propulsion done the swathe of Russian-held territory to the Sea of Azov would disrupt Russia's proviso routes and chopped disconnected their forces successful Russian-annexed Crimea and further west.

The representation beneath shows wherever crushed has been retaken. The ample reddish areas bespeak Russian-controlled areas, the purple ones are territory held, oregon regained, by Ukraine. The achromatic circles amusement conscionable however heavy the Russians person fortified this region.

In 2 months Ukrainian troops person advanced, astatine most, astir 10 miles (16km) successful 2 areas on the region's 100-mile (160km) front, according to autarkic analysis.

Progress is being made, but it is slower than Ukraine and its Western allies had hoped.

Ukrainian forces person been attacking connected 3 fronts, utilizing Western-supplied instrumentality and training, and probing for anemic spots on the full 700-mile (1,125km) beforehand line.

But the Russians foresaw their intentions, and they person spent months gathering the astir extended fortifications successful caller history.

Triple layers of trenches, bunkers, factual pyramid tank-traps (so-called "dragon's teeth") and ditches - laced with thousands of landmines - contiguous a monolithic obstacle to immoderate Ukrainian advance, arsenic illustrated successful the outer representation below, taken adjacent Tokmak.

Marina Miron, a defence adept astatine King's College London, says Ukraine has had to standard backmost its ambitions successful the south, including aspirations to instrumentality backmost Crimea.

"I don't deliberation that volition hap anytime soon," she says.

Dr Miron says the champion they tin anticipation for is perchance retaking Tokmak, which lies connected a cardinal way successful the south-east of the state - an country which acts arsenic a logistical hub for Russian forces.

Back successful June, Ukraine sent an armoured file southbound towards Tokmak and rapidly ran into trouble.

Videos shared connected societal media, which BBC Verify cross-checked to comparison locations and the types of subject vehicles, showed newly-supplied occidental Leopard tanks and Bradley warring vehicles hitting a minefield and past being attacked by Russian artillery.

The Russian service appears to person recovered from immoderate of the mistakes it made during the archetypal 12 months of the invasion, and is proving to beryllium amazingly innovative and effectual successful defence.

Lots of anti-tank mines are being used, for example.

Western-supplied mine-clearing vehicles tin usually withstand 1 deed from these mines, but not two. So the Russians are reportedly laying 1 connected apical of the different to treble the effect.

The Russians person besides started booby-trapping trenches.

In a video, verified by the BBC - but which is excessively graphic to show, you tin spot Ukrainian infantry entering bare trenches southbound of Zaporizhzhia, earlier hidden explosives are detonated, blowing up immoderate of the troops.

The Russian subject is besides taking vantage of its aerial powerfulness - specified arsenic utilizing its Ka-52 Alligator onslaught helicopters.

These helicopters tin beryllium utilized to occurrence rockets astatine Ukrainian armoured vehicles which person been forced to dilatory down oregon halt aft encountering a minefield.

And Ukraine - it's worthy noting - does not person aerial superiority implicit the battlefield.

While Russia was gathering its defences, Ukraine was putting unneurotic a dozen, newly-formed armoured brigades, galore of them trained successful Europe and supplied with amended instrumentality than the Russians.

Ukraine present has the capableness to motorboat missiles, rockets oregon shells heavy down Russian lines - hitting their substance depots, ammunition hubs and bid and power centres, which could weaken Russia's defences from within.

This British-supplied Storm Shadow missile, for example, has a scope of much than 150 miles (240km), and has enabled Ukraine to propulsion immoderate of Russia's positions further distant from the beforehand line.

Ukraine is besides utilizing US-supplied clump munitions.

Many don't detonate connected interaction and stay a semipermanent hazard, but the US says they are proving effectual against some entrenched Russian positions.

However, Gian Luca Capovin, an expert with Jane's Defence, says clump weapons tin help, but won't beryllium "a game-changer."

Ultimately, clip is not connected Ukraine's side.

By autumn, the rainy play volition person arrived, turning unpaved roads into mud and making further advances difficult, if not impossible.

By the clip that ends, successful the spring, the US statesmanlike predetermination rhythm volition beryllium nether way.

If Ukraine cannot amusement immoderate decisive gains connected the battlefield by then, it is acold from definite that US and Nato enactment volition proceed astatine their existent precocious levels.

For Kyiv, the timepiece is ticking. Meanwhile Russia simply has to bent connected to the territory it has illegally seized.

Additional reporting by Benedict Garman, Thomas Spencer, Tural Ahmedzade and Filipa Silverio.