Ukraine fighting is deadlocked, spy chief Kyrylo Budanov tells BBC - BBC

Fighting successful Ukraine is presently astatine a deadlock arsenic neither Ukraine nor Russia tin marque important advances, the caput of the Ukrainian subject quality bureau has said, portion Kyiv waits for much precocious weapons from Western allies.

"The concern is conscionable stuck," Kyrylo Budanov told the BBC successful an interview. "It doesn't move."

After Ukrainian troops recaptured the confederate metropolis of Kherson successful November, astir of the fiercest battles person been astir Bakhmut, successful the eastbound Donetsk region. Elsewhere, Russian forces look to beryllium connected the antiaircraft portion wintertime has slowed down the gait of Ukraine's crushed operations crossed the 1,000km (620-mile) beforehand line.

Mr Budanov said Russia was "now wholly astatine a dormant end" suffering precise important losses, and helium believed the Kremlin had decided to denote different mobilisation of conscripts. But, helium added, Ukrainian forces inactive lacked resources to determination guardant successful aggregate areas.

"We can't decision them successful each directions comprehensively. Neither tin they," helium said. "We're precise overmuch looking guardant to caller weapons supplies, and to the accomplishment of much precocious weapons."

Earlier this month, aft a bid of Russian subject setbacks, Ukrainian officials warned astir the anticipation of different crushed violative by Moscow's forces from Belarus astatine the commencement of 2023. The push, they said, could see a 2nd effort to prehend the capital, Kyiv, and impact tens of thousands of reservists being trained successful Russia.

Mr Budanov, however, dismissed Russia's activities successful Belarus, including the question of thousands of troops, arsenic attempts to marque Ukraine divert troops from the battlefields successful the southbound and eastbound to the north.

Recently, helium said, a bid loaded with Russian soldiers stopped successful a determination adjacent to the Belarus-Ukraine borderline and returned, respective hours later, with everyone connected board.

"They did it openly during the day, truthful that everyone would spot it, adjacent if [we] didn't privation to," adding that helium saw nary real, imminent menace from the troops successful Belarus. "As of now, I don't spot immoderate signs of preparations for an penetration of Kyiv oregon bluish areas from Belarus."

The interrogation successful Mr Budanov's dimly lit bureau successful Kyiv took spot days aft Russian President Vladimir Putin travelled to the Belarusian capital, Minsk, for the archetypal clip successful much than 3 years. His sojourn raised speculation that helium mightiness effort to transportation President Alexander Lukashenko, a long-time ally, to nonstop Belarusian troops to Ukraine.

Belarus has been utilized by Russian forces arsenic a launchpad for attacks, but Mr Budanov believes Belarusian nine volition not enactment immoderate further engagement successful the warfare and analysts person questioned the level of preparedness of its 48,000-strong army. "That's wherefore President Lukashenko is taking each steps to forestall a catastrophe for his country," helium said.

Since retaking Kherson, Ukrainian forces person been engaged successful brutal warring with Russian troops astir Bakhmut, successful trench warfare that has been compared to World War One. For Russia, capturing the metropolis would disrupt Ukraine's proviso lines and unfastened a way for an beforehand towards different Ukrainian strongholds successful the east, including Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

The offensive, Mr Budanov said, was being led by the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary army. Its founder, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, is believed to privation to seizure the municipality arsenic a governmental prize, amid rivalries betwixt elder Russian officials.

Away from the battlefields, Russia has carried retired a relentless aerial run since mid-October, targeting Ukraine's captious infrastructure with missiles and drones, leaving millions without electricity, heating and water. Mr Budanov said the strikes were apt to continue, but suggested Russia would not beryllium capable to prolong the level of the attacks due to the fact that of dwindling rocket reserves, and the inability of Russian manufacture to replenish them.

Although Iran has provided astir of the drones utilized successful Russia's attacks, the spy main says it has truthful acold refused to present missiles to Russia, alert that Western countries are apt to enforce measures connected Tehran, already nether crippling sanctions due to the fact that of its atomic programme.

The warfare whitethorn beryllium deadlocked for now, but Mr Budanov is adamant that Ukraine volition yet retake each the territory present nether occupation, including Crimea, the peninsula that Russia seized successful 2014. He envisages Ukraine returning to its 1991 borders, erstwhile independency was declared with the illness of the Soviet Union.

Additional reporting by Hanna Tsyba and Robbie Wright.