Ukraine Peace Talks Remain Distant Even as Moscow Signals a Retreat - The New York Times

WASHINGTON — American and European officials accidental superior bid talks betwixt Ukraine and Russia are improbable successful the adjacent future, adjacent arsenic the Biden medication tries to fend disconnected increasing questions from immoderate members of Congress astir the U.S. government’s open-ended concern successful the war.

Russian and Ukrainian officials person made abstracted nationalist comments successful caller days astir imaginable bid negotiations, much than six months aft their last known nonstop talks fell apart. But U.S. officials accidental that they bash not judge talks volition statesman soon and that some sides deliberation continued fighting, for now, volition fortify their eventual negotiating positions.

They besides concede that it is hard to envision presumption of a colony that Ukraine and Russia would accept.

Ukrainian officials are optimistic astir their subject prospects aft making unexpectedly ample gains this fall. Their morale soared again connected Wednesday, erstwhile Russia ordered its forces to retreat from the confederate metropolis of Kherson.

Perhaps much important, American and European officials say, Ukraine’s colonisation has been hardened by Russia’s devastating subject campaign, which has destroyed civilian areas and resulted successful massacres, rape and looting. Even if Ukrainian leaders were prepared to marque concessions to bring the warring to an end, their radical are not disposed to judge that, the officials say.

American officials accidental Russia’s caller attacks connected captious infrastructure person made negotiations little apt by eroding immoderate nationalist enactment for compromise.

And portion President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has endured repeated subject losses and retreats, officials accidental helium believes that the United States and Europe — arsenic they grapple with soaring vigor prices, fears of atomic escalation and governmental instability — could suffer their volition to proceed supporting Ukraine astatine existent levels.

After his military’s evident embarrassment successful Kherson, Mr. Putin is little apt to prosecute bid than to redouble his efforts to unit Kyiv and the West. Western officials spot events this autumn specified arsenic the suspected sabotage of Germany’s obstruction strategy and drone surveillance implicit Norway’s offshore lipid platforms arsenic imaginable harbingers of greater Russian disruptions.

More than 8 months aft Russia’s invasion, U.S. and European officials are hard-pressed to picture a plausible endgame to the struggle that would beryllium acceptable to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and to Mr. Putin, who has agelong been obsessed with the country.

President Biden said connected Wednesday that it was the Ukrainians who would yet determine their country’s extremity state. “Nothing astir Ukraine without Ukraine,” helium said. The White House has committed to not negotiating thing astir Ukraine’s aboriginal without Kyiv’s representatives present.

Mr. Biden added that helium expected some sides to “lick their wounds” implicit the wintertime and determine whether determination was immoderate country for compromise. “But I bash cognize 1 thing: We’re not going to archer them what they person to do,” helium said.

But the president faces increasing unit from immoderate quarters of Congress. As the warfare grinds on, House Republicans accidental they program to intensify scrutiny of U.S. assistance to Ukraine, particularly humanitarian assistance.

And immoderate advocates of negotiations accidental that talks should statesman to astatine slightest research possibilities for communal ground. Last month, 30 progressive House Democrats sent — past rapidly withdrew nether governmental unit — a missive to Mr. Biden calling for “redoubling efforts to question a realistic model for a cease-fire.”

“The contented is not whether you tin spot an overlap successful their positions connected a Venn diagram close now, oregon that we spot Russia pre-emptively prepared to marque concessions,” said Samuel Charap, an expert astatine the RAND Corporation. “It’s that there’s a worth to having unfastened channels to laic the groundwork for the future. Talking and warring astatine the aforesaid clip has often been the norm successful struggle situations.”

But U.S. officials and analysts pass that Mr. Putin often uses diplomacy arsenic a instrumentality to bargain clip and disagreement his enemies.

“It’s understandable that radical successful the West are shaken by the imaginable that this horrible warfare could resistance connected for months, if not years,” said Andrew Weiss, vice president for studies astatine the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the co-author of “Accidental Czar,” a caller graphic novel-style biography of Mr. Putin. “But we should not fool ourselves into reasoning that the Russians person ever negotiated successful bully religion astir Ukraine.”

The State Department spokesman, Ned Price, struck a akin enactment connected Tuesday. “We’ve seen thing to bespeak that the Russians are astatine the contiguous infinitesimal consenting to prosecute successful bully religion negotiations,” helium told reporters, adding that Moscow could show sincerity by halting attacks connected civilian targets.

The Biden medication progressively finds itself having to locomotion a good enactment successful balancing messages to Ukrainian and American audiences. On the 1 hand, President Biden has sought to reassure Ukraine that U.S. enactment remains strong. On the different hand, helium has been pressed to explicate however a warfare helium has said could pb to “Armageddon” mightiness end.

Jake Sullivan, the White House nationalist information adviser, said during a sojourn to Ukraine past Friday that U.S. enactment for Ukraine would beryllium “unwavering and unflinching” — offering reassurance careless of immoderate disquiet successful Congress.

“We afloat mean to guarantee that the resources are determination arsenic indispensable and that we’ll get votes from some sides of the aisle to marque that happen,” Mr. Sullivan told reporters successful Kyiv, the capital, wherever helium met with Mr. Zelensky.

Mr. Sullivan asked Mr. Zelensky astir his ideas astir “a conscionable peace,” not to unit the Ukrainian authorities but to get a amended consciousness of what the extremity of the warfare mightiness look similar from a Ukrainian perspective, a Biden medication authoritative said.

“A conscionable peace” was a operation utilized successful an Oct. 11 statement by the Group of 7 nations broadly outlining presumption for a imaginable settlement, including Ukraine’s close to “regain afloat power of its territory wrong its internationally recognized borders”; reconstruction of its country, perchance with funds from Russia; and “accountability” for Russian warfare crimes.

In his nightly address to his state connected Monday, Mr. Zelensky listed those aforesaid conditions. Some analysts noted that Mr. Zelensky did not repetition his anterior refusal to negociate with a Russian authorities led by Mr. Putin.

Russian officials person insisted that they are consenting to speech and person sought to formed Kyiv arsenic the holdout. Russia’s lawman overseas minister, Andrei Rudenko, said connected Tuesday that Ukraine lacked the “good will” to speech sincerely.

“This is their choice, we person ever declared our readiness for specified negotiations,” helium said — a connection that U.S. officials interest could resonate with neutral nations astir the satellite unless intelligibly countered by Ukrainian leaders.

Wars often past galore years. The United States fought successful Afghanistan for 2 decades adjacent aft toppling the Taliban government, and the American subject has fought multiple wars successful Iraq implicit the decades, each 1 a continuation of the last. Absent a afloat withdrawal by 1 side, bid talks usually statesman lone erstwhile everyone is exhausted oregon 1 enactment sees decision connected the horizon.

Mr. Charap said that successful war, “the extremity authorities is 1 that nary 1 envisions being acceptable astatine the beginning.”

In Ukraine, the destiny of Crimea is simply a peculiarly thorny question. Ukrainian leaders importune they volition retake that peninsula and different onshore that the Russian subject seized successful 2014.

Mr. Putin sees Crimea arsenic a territory of large strategical and humanities importance. At the aforesaid time, Ukraine, the United States and European nations person insisted for years that Crimea’s presumption is nonnegotiable. Biden medication officials person repeatedly said that 1 of the main reasons for supporting Ukraine is to support the halfway rule that borders cannot beryllium changed by force.

“In presumption of the eventual presumption of Crimea, that volition beryllium thing to beryllium negotiated oregon discussed betwixt the Ukrainians and the Russians, but Crimea is Ukraine,” Colin H. Kahl, the Pentagon’s nether caput for policy, said connected Tuesday.

Ukrainian subject advances connected Crimea, though a distant imaginable for now, would stoke interest successful Washington astir Mr. Putin’s threats to escalate the conflict.

American and European leaders spot their extremity for present arsenic keeping a protracted warfare contained to Ukraine and deterring Mr. Putin from utilizing a tactical atomic warhead oregon different limb of wide destruction. Officials statement whether Mr. Putin is bluffing erstwhile helium hints astatine utilizing atomic arms, but immoderate analysts judge that power of Crimea, location to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, could beryllium a reddish enactment for the Russian leader.

American officials person said for months that they are sending backstage and nationalist messages to the Kremlin to pass of terrible consequences if Mr. Putin uses atomic weapons. Mr. Sullivan has been talking to Nikolai Patrushev, his Russian counterpart, since the opening of the warfare to effort to avert immoderate misunderstandings astir atomic threats, the Biden medication authoritative said.

“I person known some Jake Sullivan and Tony Blinken for years,” said Representative Ro Khanna, Democrat of California, referring to Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken. Mr. Khanna, who was among those who signed the progressives’ missive to Mr. Biden, continued, “I person assurance that they recognize the risks of atomic warfare and the risks of escalation, and are doing everything they tin to basal with Ukraine portion minimizing the risks of the struggle escalating.”

American officials said Mr. Zelensky’s backstage presumption has been the aforesaid arsenic his nationalist one: He wants to spot Ukraine’s pre-2014 territory returned, and helium is not funny successful trading immoderate of it for an extremity to the war.

Some European officials wonderment privately whether that presumption is tenable, but others dependable enactment for it.

“We perceive galore careless statements, similar saying, ‘It’s not indispensable to person implicit territorial integrity, we request to negotiate, we request to spell for compromise truthful that yet we tin person bid again,’” Annalena Baerbock, overseas curate of Germany, said astatine a argumentation forum past month. “I accidental precise clearly: Such demands are naïve, and specified naïve strategies already failed successful 2014.”

Eric Schmitt contributed reporting.