Ukraine's Drones Keep Hitting Russia's Bomber Bases. Now Russian Missile Crews Are Getting Jumpy. - Forbes

The Ukrainian subject connected Dec. 29 seemingly sent much explosives-laden drones to onslaught a Russian aerial unit basal extracurricular Moscow.

It was astatine slightest the 4th specified raid successful a month—and it seemingly rattled Russian air-defenders. If you judge the chatter connected societal media, successful the chaos pursuing the onslaught a Russian rocket artillery changeable down ... a Russian aerial unit Sukhoi Su-27 combatant jet.

The alleged shoot-down, if it happened—and that’s a large if—could reflector a perchance akin incidental that occurred implicit Kyiv successful the archetypal heady days of Russia’s wider warfare connected Ukraine that started successful precocious February. In that incident, jumpy Ukrainian air-defenders whitethorn person changeable down a Ukrainian air unit Su-27.

We don’t cognize a batch astir the evident Dec. 29 raid connected Engels, a bomber basal 400 miles southeast of Moscow. We cognize much astir erstwhile attacks connected the aforesaid basal connected Dec. 26 and Dec. 5.

Russian media confirmed Ukrainian drones were liable for the earlier raids. It’s imaginable the drones were 1970s-vintage, jet-propelled Tupolev Tu-141 reconnaissance vehicles that the Ukrainians pulled retired of storage, packed with explosives and programmed to onslaught Engels.

The Dec. 5 raid connected Engels damaged a Tupolev Tu-95 bomber. A simultaneous onslaught connected Dyagilevo aerial base, 100 miles southeast of Moscow, damaged a Tupolev Tu-22M bomber. Three Russian unit died successful the Dyagilevo raid.

It seems the Dec. 26 onslaught mostly was a bust for the Ukrainians. Russian air-defenders reported shooting down the approaching drone oregon drones. Three Russian troops reportedly died from the falling debris.

The Dec. 29 raid seemingly besides failed to harm Engels. Roman Busargin, the politician of the surrounding Saratov Oblast, confirmed the demolition of a Ukrainian drone and denied reports that section students were evacuating their schools.

Users of the Telegram social-media app meantime circulated rumors that spooked Russian air-defenders astir Engels opened occurrence connected a blip connected their radars—a blip that turned retired to beryllium a Russian Su-27. The aviator died, according to the rumors.

There’s a bully accidental this isn’t true. It’s worthy noting that Busargin made nary notation of the alleged shoot-down. Nor is determination immoderate video oregon photograph grounds of the incident. Yet.

But there’s surely precendent for a friendly-fire shoot-down. On July 17, Russian air-defenses astir the metropolis of Alchevsk successful Russian-occupied eastbound Ukraine shot down a Russian aerial unit Sukhoi Su-34M—one of the aerial force’s champion jets.

Russian propagandist Yevgeny Poddubny captured the incidental connected video—and a abstracted video of the wreckage confirmed the plane’s identity.

Five months earlier, successful the acheronian connected Feb. 25, a Ukrainian aerial unit Su-27 exploded portion patroling implicit Kyiv. The celebrated pilot, Oleksandr Oksanchenko, died arsenic a result.

While it’s theoretically imaginable a precise agelong and precise fortunate changeable by a Russian S-400 rocket battery, perchance positioned determination successful Belarus,, was responsbile for the February shoot-down, it’s much likely—as immoderate media person reported—that a Ukrainian rocket artillery mistook the Sukhoi for a Russian jet.

It was the archetypal afloat time of the wider war, aft all—and Russian planes were heavy successful the entity implicit north-central Ukraine. “Both Russian and Ukrainian craft were threatened by affable occurrence astatine this time,” Mykhaylo Zabrodskyi, Jack Watling, Oleksandr Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds explained successful a study for the Royal United Services Institute successful London.

It’s imaginable the aforesaid fearfulness and disorder that made the entity implicit Kyiv truthful unsafe backmost successful February present has afflicted the aerial abstraction implicit Saratov Oblast.

Yes, Russian rocket batteries are shooting down many, if not most, of the drones the Ukrainians are hurling astatine Engels and Dyagilevo. But they’re not shooting down all the drones—and they mightiness beryllium endangering affable aircraft, too.

“Russia has agelong fixed a precise precocious precedence to maintaining precocious crushed based air-defenses,” the U.K. Defense Ministry stated, “but it is progressively wide that it is struggling to antagonistic aerial threats heavy wrong Russia.”