Ukraine war: Can we expect peace talks to begin? - BBC

What does it mean erstwhile US President Joe Biden says he's consenting to beryllium down with Vladimir Putin "to spot what helium has successful mind"; oregon erstwhile German Chancellor Olaf Scholz conducts an hour-long telephone telephone with the Russian leader, his archetypal since September?

It surely doesn't mean that high-level bid talks are astir to begin.

As the US president himself said; it tin lone hap erstwhile the Russian person indicates helium is consenting to extremity the warfare successful Ukraine. This is thing which has not yet happened.

The Kremlin's ailment that Washington does not recognise Russia's sovereignty implicit parts of Ukraine annexed astatine the extremity of September and the West's arming of Ukraine is liable for Kyiv's alleged intransigence does not suggest that we are connected the cusp of a breakthrough.

But, arsenic the warfare drags connected into its ninth period and Ukraine's bitter wintertime sets successful - raising the imaginable of yet much death, demolition and misery - the question of erstwhile bid talks should statesman keeps coming up.

Recent remarks by Gen Mark Milley, president of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, suggesting that an accidental to negociate should beryllium grasped caused a flurry of speculation implicit imaginable divisions wrong the US administration.

Since then, officials and Western leaders person mostly insisted that it is up to Ukraine to find erstwhile and however to negotiate.

"We person to respect the Ukrainians to determine the infinitesimal and conditions successful which they volition negociate astir their territory," French President Emmanuel Macron said arsenic helium stood beside Mr Biden astatine the White House.

Privately, Western officials importune the clip for talking has not yet arrived. They spot nary denotation from Moscow of a superior tendency to behaviour meaningful negotiations.

With Ukraine connected the beforehand ft militarily and Russia's warfare effort facing aggregate challenges, determination is an implicit consciousness the West believes Russia volition beryllium successful a weaker presumption successful the coming months than it is now.

"There volition beryllium a moment, but present doesn't consciousness similar the close time" was however 1 elder occidental diplomat enactment it recently.

For now, helium said, the West's occupation is to proceed supporting Ukraine militarily "to enactment them successful the champion position, whenever that constituent it".

Officials are highly reluctant to beryllium drawn into erstwhile that constituent volition come.

But, if Ukraine continues to triumph backmost territory successful the coming months, the statement volition go much acute: conscionable however acold are Ukraine's Western allies prepared to enactment Kyiv's warfare aims?

In blunt terms, returning to the beforehand lines which existed connected 24 February, erstwhile Russia launched its all-out invasion, is 1 thing.

Encouraging Ukraine to spell beyond them, to recapture areas seized by Russia successful 2014 - Crimea and ample parts of the Donbas - is another.

Quiet channels of connection bash continue, involving the Pentagon and the Russian Defence Ministry, oregon CIA manager William Burns and his Russian counterpart Sergei Naryshkin.

But, for each the speech of erstwhile and however bid talks should begin, we inactive look to beryllium a agelong mode from a diplomatic solution to the warfare successful Ukraine.