Ukraine war: Russia troop deployment to Belarus prompts speculation

The informing from Ukraine to Belarus is blunt.

"If the Belarusian service supports Russian aggression, we volition respond… with our full arsenal of weapons."

The informing comes arsenic Russia is sending thousands of troops backmost to Belarus, prompting fears the 2 countries could beryllium readying a associated incursion crossed Ukraine's bluish border.

That would beryllium politically risky for Belarusian person Alexander Lukashenko - and Russian forces are already struggling to clasp their existent lines astir the confederate metropolis of Kherson and successful Donbas successful the east.

But the imaginable unsocial is simply a distraction and a interest for Kyiv arsenic Minsk comes nether unit from Moscow to step-up its support.

"I deliberation Putin truly wants Belarusians to participate Ukraine truthful that Lukashenko… is bloodied, too, and volition person to spell to the extremity with him," is however Valery Sakhashchyk, the erstwhile commandant of an elite paratrooper unit, reads the caller moves.

Now successful Warsaw, helium is efficaciously the defence curate successful a transitional furniture of the Belarusian opposition-in-exile.

The fuss was sparked when, aft gathering Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this month, Alexander Lukashenko claimed that Belarus's neighbours were readying to attack.

He past announced that Minsk and Moscow were forming a associated "regional group" of forces for protection.

Mr Sakhashchyk puts the hazard of the 2 countries opening a bluish beforehand successful Ukraine arsenic 1 successful three, currently.

But helium describes the long-time person of Belarus arsenic a "wily" operator.

"Lukashenko volition bash everything imaginable not to nonstop his troops to fight, to bounds them to a supporting role, but determination is surely a threat."

Belarus is already heavy progressive successful the Ukraine war.

In February, Russian tanks crossed its confederate borderline towards Kyiv and Russia regularly launches missiles from Belarusian territory. The EU is presently preparing different punishment bundle of sanctions successful response.

But if President Putin is pushing him for more, Mr Lukashenko has constricted country for manoeuvre.

The authoritarian person has been babelike connected Russia since 2020, erstwhile enactment from Moscow helped him past an unprecedented question of protests.

Meanwhile, the wide imprisonment and torture of protestors hammered 1 nail successful the coffin of relations with the West. Belarus aiding Russia's penetration was another.

Mr Lukashenko says up to 9,000 Russian soldiers volition travel to Belarus for the caller group. But sending Belarusians alongside them into Ukraine would beryllium a profoundly unpopular move.

Several 100 Belarusians are already warring successful Ukraine - against Russia. Known arsenic the Kalinovsky regiment, they openly accidental they joined the warfare to decision Vladimir Putin truthful that Belarus, too, tin beryllium free.

There is besides absorption wrong Belarus wherever partisans sabotaged railway lines astatine the commencement of the penetration to hinder the question of Russian troops. Last week, different of the radical was sentenced to 11 years successful prison.

"I get lads penning and saying we don't privation to combat [against Ukraine]," Pavel Kukhta, of the Kalinovsky regiment, told maine astatine their recruitment basal successful Warsaw.

"My sources successful the Belarussian service accidental 90% won't fight. They accidental the training's atrocious and kit and morale are adjacent worse than the Russian army."

There person been rumours of a concealed mobilisation successful Belarus, but thing substantiated.

Meanwhile, Russian forces are already connected the move.

Ukrainian quality reports that 3,200 Russian soldiers person been sent to Belarus to date. More are expected, but it is simply a trickle not a unreserved and truthful acold they are heading for bluish and cardinal parts of the country, alternatively than the Ukraine border.

"They don't bring immoderate dense equipment, determination was conscionable 1 bid loaded with pontoon bridges but nary tanks oregon unit carriers," Belarusian writer Tadeusz Giczan besides points out.

He believes the Russians are really being sent for training, with their ain facilities overstretched since President Putin announced a partial mobilisation.

"They request much capacity. Belarus offered to supply it and possibly termination 2 birds with 1 stone: endanger Ukraine with a imaginable caller violative from the north. It's conscionable a bluff."

The Russian men shown successful Belarusian defence ministry videos look to beryllium mobiki - reservists, not regular troops. Some person non-military items of kit oregon clothing.

Valery Sakhashchyk agrees they could beryllium training.

"They request a batch of instructors and Russia has a occupation with that arsenic they've mislaid a batch of men."

The mobiki could past beryllium deployed to the border, but that would beryllium detected.

For now, a Belarusian monitoring radical sees instrumentality heading retired of the state instead.

The Hajun task says much than 90 tanks person been transported to Russia successful caller weeks, apt urgently needed replacements for Donbas.

It sees nary large caller build-up of instrumentality oregon missiles astatine the basal utilized by Russia adjacent the Ukraine border.

Some reason that committing Belarusian troops to Ukraine would beryllium pointless, militarily.

"They're not skilled, not equipped and not motivated. They won't airs a threat," absorption person Franak Viacorka has tweeted.

But Valery Sakhashchyk cautions they should not beryllium discounted.

The Ukrainian subject suggests a new, associated unit could effort to chopped disconnected its proviso routes from the West, giving Russian troops a amended accidental connected the battlefield.

"If they mobilised to subject level it would beryllium a superior onslaught unit which would beryllium unpleasant for Ukraine. They would person to determination important forces to the north, they would prolong important losses," Mr Sakhashchyk says, though helium thinks Belarusian morale would beryllium low.

"They would marque things harder, marque it slower to scope triumph - but Ukraine volition win."

The video produced by Ukraine's subject fast-cuts images of tanks and missiles with Mr Lukashenko and President Putin and calls connected Belarusians not to dice for the idiosyncratic ambitions of 2 dictators.

But Alexander Lukashenko's tendency for powerfulness whitethorn beryllium conscionable what prevents their deployment.

"It would apt beryllium a large catastrophe for the Belarusian service and for Lukashenko himself. So he'll beryllium trying to speech his mode retired of this and his negotiating presumption is inactive rather strong," says writer Tadeusz Giczan.

"He tin inactive person Putin that the Belarusian service would not adhd overmuch capacity… successful Ukraine, but [the deployment] could backfire beauteous severely and destabilise Russia's lone due ally."

In his conflict to halt Ukraine escaping Russia's grasp for good, Vladimir Putin volition not privation to hazard losing Belarus, too.