Ukraine war: Who leaked top secret US documents - and why?

What to marque of the dozens of classified American Defence Department documents - maps, charts and photographs - present circulating connected the internet?

Complete with timelines and dozens of impenetrable subject acronyms, the documents, immoderate of them marked "top secret", overgarment a elaborate representation of the warfare successful Ukraine.

They archer of the casualties suffered connected some sides, the subject vulnerabilities of each and, crucially, what their comparative strengths are apt to beryllium erstwhile Ukraine decides to motorboat its much-anticipated spring offensive.

How existent are these printed pages, unfolded and photographed, perchance connected someone's eating country table? And what bash they archer us, oregon the Kremlin, that we did not already know?

First things first: this is the biggest leak of concealed American accusation connected the warfare successful Ukraine since Russia's full-scale penetration 14 months ago. Some of the documents are arsenic overmuch arsenic six weeks old, but the implications are huge.

Pentagon officials are quoted arsenic saying the documents are real.

Information connected astatine slightest 1 of them appears to person been crudely altered successful a aboriginal version, but retired of a dump of arsenic galore arsenic 100 documents, that seems a comparatively insignificant detail.

The BBC has seen much than 20 of the documents. They see elaborate accounts of the grooming and instrumentality being provided to Ukraine arsenic it puts unneurotic a twelve caller brigades for an violative that could statesman wrong weeks.

But it notes that "equipment transportation times volition interaction grooming and readiness".

One representation includes a "mud-frozen crushed timeline", assessing crushed conditions crossed eastbound Ukraine arsenic outpouring progresses.

After a wintertime that has tested Ukraine's aerial defences to the limit, there's besides a sobering investigation of Kyiv's diminishing aerial defence capability, arsenic it seeks to equilibrium its constricted resources to support civilians, captious infrastructure and its frontline troops.

A batch of the item present is familiar. There's conscionable a batch much of it, and it's each successful 1 place.

Take casualty figures. It comes arsenic small astonishment to larn that the US estimates that betwixt 189,500 and 223,000 Russian soldiers person been killed oregon wounded.

The equivalent fig for Ukraine's losses - betwixt 124,500 and 131,000 - is besides successful enactment with ballpark figures briefed to journalists successful caller weeks.

In some cases, the Pentagon says it has "low confidence" successful the figures, owed to gaps successful information, operational information and deliberate attempts, astir apt by some sides, to mislead.

Tellingly, this is the 1 spot wherever attempts person been made to change the documents to marque it look arsenic if Ukraine is experiencing the worst casualties.

A mentation which appeared connected a pro-Russian Telegram tract took the fig of Ukrainian "killed successful action" ("16k-17.5k") and enactment those connected the Russian ledger, portion flipping the numbers connected the Ukrainian broadside truthful they work "61k - 71.5k".

All of which brings america to the question of who leaked the documents, and why?

The communicative of however the documents recovered their mode from the messaging level Discord, to 4Chan and Telegram, has already been told by Aric Toler of the investigative unfastened root quality group, Bellingcat.

Toler says it has not yet been imaginable to uncover the archetypal root of the leaks, but charts their quality connected a messaging level fashionable with gamers successful aboriginal March.

On 4 March, pursuing an statement astir the warfare successful Ukraine connected a Discord server frequented by players of the machine crippled Minecraft, 1 idiosyncratic wrote "here, person immoderate leaked documents", earlier posting 10 of the documents.

It is an unusual, but hardly unsocial signifier of leak.

In 2019, up of the UK wide election, documents relating to US-UK commercialized relations appeared connected Reddit, 4Chan and different sites.

At the time, Reddit said the unredacted documents had originated successful Russia.

In different case, past year, players of the online crippled War Thunder repeatedly posted delicate subject documents, seemingly successful an effort to triumph arguments among themselves.

The latest leak is much sensitive, and perchance damaging.

Ukraine has jealously guarded its "operational security" and cannot beryllium blessed that specified delicate worldly has appeared astatine specified a captious moment.

Ukraine's outpouring violative could correspond a make-or-break infinitesimal for the Zelensky authorities to change dynamics connected the battlefield and acceptable conditions for bid talks later.

In Kyiv, officials person spoken astir a imaginable disinformation run by Russia.

Other subject bloggers person suggested the opposite: that it is each portion of a occidental crippled to mislead Russian commanders.

Crucially, determination is thing successful the documents leaked truthful acold that points to the absorption oregon thrust of Ukraine's counter-offensive.

The Kremlin ought to person a beauteous bully thought already of the scope of Ukraine's preparations (although Moscow's quality failures person been overmuch successful grounds passim the war), but Kyiv needs to support its force guessing astir however the run volition unfold, successful bid to maximise the chances of success.