Wagner: Where next for the mercenary force?

The caller mutiny successful Russia has exposed immense insecurities successful that country.

But what does it mean for the warfare successful Ukraine and what happens present to Wagner, the mercenaries who rebelled?

Firstly, successful the abstraction of conscionable a fewer hours connected 24 June, Wagner took power of an full Russian city, Rostov-on-Don. They past sent a heavily-armed convoy northwards, stopping conscionable 200km abbreviated of Moscow, shooting down Russian subject craft en route.

It was the astir superior situation yet to President Putin's rule, adjacent if, arsenic Wagner's person Yevgeny Prigozhin claims, it was not intended to be.

In short, it came adjacent to triggering what could person been a catastrophic civilian warfare successful a state with the world's largest arsenal of atomic warheads.

Secondly, Wagner has been by acold Russia's astir effectual subject unit connected the crushed successful Ukraine. Its soldiers, comprising some vocation veterans and convicts, are successful astir cases amended paid and amended motivated than the regular army.

President Putin is faced with a dilemma. Wagner launched a mutiny, truthful it's intelligibly a imaginable aboriginal threat. Yet it's besides been enormously utile to the Kremlin and not conscionable successful Ukraine .

Deployed to Syria, Libya and respective African countries, Wagner projects Russian strategical powerfulness and power astir the globe, and each the portion nether the guise of pretending it has thing to bash with the Kremlin. Only precise precocious has Putin yet admitted that Wagner has been state-funded to the tune of billions of roubles.

Following the aborted mutiny, the Kremlin has said Wagner fighters person until 1 July to determine whether to motion contracts to articulation the regular service (not an charismatic imaginable for most). If not, they tin either instrumentality home, oregon spell to neighbouring Belarus wherever Mr Prigozhin is expected to beryllium successful exile.

We cognize from formation tracking information that an craft linked to Mr Prigozhin landed successful the Belarusian superior Minsk this week. His accomplishment determination was confirmed by the Belarus person Alexander Lukashenko.

But that aforesaid craft has since returned to Russia, stopping successful St Petersburg and Moscow.

But wherever is helium present and volition helium inactive beryllium allowed to tally Wagner's operations from Belarus, contempt his betrayal of his erstwhile patron, President Putin?

He could inactive beryllium utile to Russia, but Putin is improbable to ever spot oregon forgive him for astir triggering a civilian war. There is simply a grim precedent of revenge exacted connected those perceived to person betrayed the state.

British investigators concluded that erstwhile KGB officers turned defectors, Alexander Litvinienko and Sergei Skripal, were poisoned successful Britain by agents sent by Moscow. Mr Prigozhin volition present beryllium looking implicit his enarthrosis for the remainder of his life.

Wagner successful Ukraine is astir surely finished, astatine slightest arsenic an autarkic unit. Some erstwhile fighters whitethorn instrumentality determination arsenic portion of the regular Russian service but the chaotic days of it operating mostly arsenic it chose and answering mostly to its person are over.

"Russia is efficaciously disbanding 1 of its astir combat susceptible battle forces," says Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia expert astatine the Institute for the Study of War. "That's a important woody for Ukrainian fighters who successful the past person signalled that warring with Wagner was a batch worse than warring with regular Russia units".

The signs are that the aboriginal of the Wagner radical is inactive being thrashed retired successful negotiations betwixt Prigozhin, the Kremlin and Lukashenko, who has offered Wagner troops the usage of a subject camp.

Satellite images appear to amusement activity astatine a disused basal astir 13 miles (21km) from the municipality of Asipovichy - astir 64 miles from the superior Minsk. The country has been reported successful Russian media arsenic a spot which could location Wagner fighters.

Ukraine present has to interest astir reinforcing its bluish border, portion neighbouring NATO countries Poland, Latvia and Lithuania person concerns astir aboriginal subversive enactment Wagner whitethorn undertake from Belarus.

And yet nobody, astir apt not adjacent the Kremlin itself, knows however galore Wagner fighters volition spell to Belarus, however galore volition articulation the Russian service to combat connected successful Ukraine, and however galore volition bent up their boots and spell home.

A trawl of Telegram online chat rooms by BBC Verify reveals fewer clues, though 1 blogger who identifies himself arsenic a Belarusian Wagner combatant says the radical "continues to work". In the contiguous aftermath of the mutiny galore are believed to person returned to their bases successful the Russian-occupied parts of eastbound Ukraine.

BBC Verify has been looking for grounds of gains by Ukrainian forces since the Wagner rebellion, but has not observed immoderate important changes to frontline positions truthful far.

"I don't deliberation it volition person an interaction close present arsenic Russia is connected the defensive," says Marina Miron, a Russian subject adept astatine King's College London.

"If the regular Russian service manages to adsorb the Wagner troops and re-purpose them nether a azygous bid structure, it won't needfully weaken the Russian side."

Ultimately it comes down to a question of morale amongst frontline Russian troops. If they fishy their commanders are warring amongst themselves backmost location successful Russia, past implicit clip that could earnestly impact morale successful the trenches.

Wagner is not finished but its days of operating mostly independently of the Russian service are over. With its weaponry handed successful and without the charismatic Prigozhin astatine its head, it volition nary longer beryllium the unit it was. And that, for Kyiv, is immoderate relief.

Additional reporting by Jake Horton, Daniele Palumbo, Paul Brown and Benedict Garman.