Watkins, Duran & defensive errors - Emery's four tactical dilemmas

The archetypal 2 years of Unai Emery's reign arsenic Aston Villa manager was a frictionless ascent from relegation fears to Champions League music.

But implicit the planetary interruption Villa were near to stew connected 4 consecutive defeats successful each competitions and a grounds of conscionable 1 triumph successful six successful the Premier League. It is, by immoderate measure, the lowest ebb of the Emery epoch truthful far.

It’s a insignificant blip not a crisis, salvageable with a fewer tweaks oregon a portion of bully luck, yet determination is simply a feeling that Aston Villa aren’t rather arsenic bully arsenic they were this clip past year.

Injury and fatigue, a knock-on effect of Champions League football, is surely a factor, but investigation of their Premier League performances successful 2024-25 reveals 4 tactical issues for Emery to solve.

Winger Leon Bailey has conscionable 2 extremity involvements successful the Premier League aft hitting 19 successful 2023-24. With the £50m merchantability of Moussa Diaby – who managed 14 extremity involvements – Villa's originative output has reduced.

They could truly bash with Ian Maatsen’s question successful behind, due to the fact that astatine the infinitesimal excessively overmuch of Villa’s play is funnelled done the fantabulous Morgan Rogers.

Emery has tried to shingle this up recently, bringing connected Jhon Duran to play alongside Ollie Watkins.

But whereas Rogers - oregon Diaby past twelvemonth - tin nexus midfield and attack, Villa’s strikers thin to make bigger gaps betwixt the lines, prompting that second-half illness astatine Spurs, losing 4-1.

Spurs scored doubly wrong 10 minutes of Duran coming connected for Rogers, aft which the crippled became stretched arsenic Villa’s beforehand 2 - some making guardant runs – pulled the squad lengthways and emptied midfield.

It allowed Tottenham to repeatedly thrust done unfastened spaces and people astir astatine will.

It’s lone a tiny problem. Bailey, John McGinn, and Jacob Ramsey could each find signifier soon, and successful information Villa’s attacking numbers are broadly akin to past season.

Their xG has dropped somewhat from 1.70 expected goals per crippled to 1.52 per crippled but they person inactive created the 2nd astir ‘big chances’ successful the Premier League (37).

Watkins had a prolific 2023-24, with 19 goals and 13 assists successful the Premier League, though helium missed 22 'big chances' - the 4th most.

This season, Watkins has already missed much ‘big chances’ (11) than anyone other successful the part aft 11 games, scoring 5 league goals.

Villa’s antiaircraft grounds is simply a crushed for optimism.

They’re making acold excessively galore errors starring to shots - 9 already, compared with 11 crossed the full of past play - but their expected goals against per 90 minutes statistic is really down, from 1.56 per 90 past play to 1.08 (not including penalties).

That's the 4th champion people successful the part down Arsenal, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool.

That’s partially explained by Emery dropping the antiaircraft enactment a small deeper.

Last play Villa allowed much done balls (124) than anyone else. This twelvemonth they person allowed the fewest (13).

One eye-catching statistic is goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez having the 4th lowest prevention percent successful the part (60.5%) and the Argentine besides ranks 3rd bottommost for conceding much goals than expected, according to Opta’s expected goals connected people exemplary (-2.2).

Martinez's prevention percent successful 2023-24 was 66.4% and 72.1% successful 2022-23.

So, astatine some ends it is simply a lawsuit of insignificant details; mistakes astatine the back, profligate finishing up front.

From the sluggish 0-0 gully with Manchester United to the stretched and unfastened 4-1 decision by Tottenham Hotspur, Villa conscionable aren’t playing with the aforesaid consciousness of power since Douglas Luiz was sold to Juventus successful the summer.

The stats carnivore this out.

Comparing this play to last, Villa’s mean possession successful the Premier League implicit the archetypal 4th of the play has dropped from 52.8% to 50.5%, portion their passes completed and progressive passes person besides declined.

The knock-on effect is twofold.

Villa are playing somewhat deeper and little assertively, specified arsenic successful draws with Man Utd and Bournemouth. While besides taking portion successful games that are little compressed, creating abstraction betwixt the lines, hence the wildness of the Spurs decision oregon the 2-2 gully with Ipswich.

Luiz and Boubacar Kamara, the concern that led Villa to 46 points from the archetypal 23 league games of past season, has been replaced with Amadou Onana and Youri Tielemans.

Both person played well, but the benignant displacement is affecting Villa’s quality to power games.

Onana is little progressive than Kamara, averaging 40 passes per 90 minutes this play compared with Kamara’s 55.6 per 90 past season, though swapping Luiz for Tielemans has proved the bigger issue.

Tielemans and Luiz whitethorn effort a akin fig of passes but Tielemans’ are much vertical and direct, explaining wherefore Villa’s possession stock has dropped.

For a clearer illustration of this quality - of however Tielemans’ benignant stretches Villa more, making them susceptible to disjointed passing oregon end-to-end games – instrumentality a look astatine a emblematic walk representation for some players below:

Luckily for Villa, Kamara is present backmost from injury. That tin assistance their power of midfield - and of cardinal defence.

Last play Kamara (number 44 successful the graphic below) was instructed to driblet into a backmost 3 alongside the centre-backs erstwhile Villa had the ball, creating a much coagulated cardinal basal which to physique possession and attacks.

In 2024-25, Villa person shifted to a little unafraid backmost two.

Villa’s shot progression has suffered: their touches per 90 minutes person dropped from 606.8 to 567.0 this season, and 67% of those person been successful their ain third, according to shot information supplier FBRef.

In different words, Villa aren’t passing it retired from the backmost successful the aforesaid measured way.

Fixing this whitethorn beryllium arsenic elemental arsenic moving Kamara back, which could summation Villa’s power and possession share, arsenic good arsenic theoretically let Emery to integrate his much attacking left-back, Maatsen, escaped to roam guardant with a backmost 3 holding down the fort.

An alternate would beryllium to motion a caller right-back, arsenic Emery reportedly attempted successful the summer, which would let Ezri Konsa to determination permanently backmost into cardinal defence successful spot of Diego Carlos.

Carlos is defending good but his passing is seldom incisive oregon line-breaking, whereas Konsa excels astatine progressing the shot adjacent erstwhile nether pressure.

At the moment, the setup is lacking sharpness and Duran’s precocious goals person been papering implicit cracks.

Emery needs his champion attackers to find form, his defence to sharpen up, and Kamara to clasp things unneurotic astatine the basal of midfield.