'We can't be honest,' former home secretaries tell Kuenssberg on immigration

If you were fixed a fiver each clip a authorities curate parroted the slogan that promises to extremity migrant transmission crossings you would beryllium beauteous flush by now.

It's branded connected authorities lecterns, connected the backdrop down the premier curate erstwhile helium gives speeches, it's each implicit societal media, and the methods the authorities wants to usage are successful a large acceptable of caller laws making their mode done Parliament. yYou tin work astir it here.

But Rishi Sunak's vow to "stop the boats" is acold from the archetypal clip that a authorities has said it volition get a grip connected immigration.

Mr Sunak is concentrating connected curbing amerciable migration and the fig of asylum seekers, which roseate sharply past twelvemonth and is adjacent to grounds levels.

But the header fig for nett migration - the quality betwixt the numbers entering the state legally and those leaving - deed an all-time precocious implicit the past 12 months, contempt years of Conservative promises to get it down.

So, I person spoken to 5 erstwhile location secretaries, Conservative and Labour, astir wherefore it is conscionable truthful hard to negociate the numbers of radical who privation to travel to the UK - whether those who marque unsafe journeys and get present illegally, oregon to assertion asylum, oregon those who person support to enactment oregon survey and determination present from different countries.

"We can't beryllium honest", says 1 erstwhile occupant of 1 of the hardest jobs successful government.

The archetypal obstruction is simply a governmental one. This erstwhile location caput said governments "want to springiness the content that you tin bash thing astir it, but it is very, precise difficult".

And erstwhile it comes to the wide numbers, that see asylum seekers and those who travel present with support to enactment oregon study, successful 2022 they deed 606,000 - a grounds level.

The Conservatives promised the nationalist that they would get the nett migration figures nether 100,000 but that "created the cardinal problem", says different ex-home secretary.

The authorities "said we'll get the numbers down…but the state needs immigrants", they add.

This ex-minister told maine it was a people "I ne'er believed successful - I ne'er thought that it was sensible".

Our 3rd erstwhile location caput told maine "it was vainglorious" to effort to headdress numbers astatine 100,000, a fig that present seems wholly and utterly retired of reach.

And repeatedly promising the nationalist that the numbers volition autumn makes it hard for ministers to admit that the migration strategy is now, ironically aft Brexit, much wide than it was before.

One of the erstwhile location secretaries said the numbers are "sky precocious due to the fact that of deliberate Tory policy".

Another said: "We person enactment successful spot the astir wide authorities ever" to alteration workers the system needs and students to travel to the state legally.

Home Secretary Suella Braverman mightiness privation to enactment her ft connected the brake, but fractional a mile further up Whitehall, the Treasury tends to enactment its ft connected the accelerator if determination simply are not capable Brits either consenting oregon capable to bash jobs that concern and nationalist services request to fill.

Beyond the governmental contradictions, our 5 erstwhile Home Office bosses shared a agelong database of tricky applicable considerations.

They each agreed, and had tried successful assorted ways, to enactment much intimately with France and the remainder of the European Union, connected amerciable migration, thing that inevitably became harder aft the UK near the bloc and relationships soured.

Rishi Sunak has tried to amended things with Emmanuel Macron, but it's a agelong mode disconnected a alleged "returns agreement" wherever France would instrumentality migrants backmost who person crossed the Channel.

And 1 of our sources said: "When different countries perceive america whingeing they don't person overmuch sympathy."

Several suggested making a dent successful the wide nett migration figures by taking students retired of the count, and besides removing Brits who person returned to unrecorded astatine home. They agreed that reducing the fig of household members who could articulation immigrants successful the UK as the authorities is doing would help.

But determination was a bully dose of scepticism among the 5 Conservatives and Labour erstwhile location secretaries I spoke to astir whether the government's much arguable plans to tackle amerciable migration volition work.

Ministers privation to detain and past region anyone who arrives successful the state without ineligible support to assertion asylum, either to Rwanda oregon different harmless country, truthful acold determination are nary different names connected the list.

One of them told maine they don't disagree with the conception "but I conscionable don't deliberation it's going to work".

Another was much scathing, saying "it's ridiculous - wherever are each these thousands of radical going to go?"

One of their different erstwhile colleagues told maine it is "insane" to ideate that thousands upon thousands of radical tin beryllium removed oregon sent backmost to their archetypal country.

The existent location caput is profoundly committed to the plan, and points to the occurrence it had successful Australia.

But galore experts successful the assemblage picture it arsenic a gamble and, arsenic different of Suella Braverman's predecessors said, "there is perfectly nary grounds that it volition work".

That does not of people mean that it is doomed to fail, but Rishi Sunak and Suella Braverman cannot beryllium definite that their plans volition so "stop the boats".

There's suspicion too, arsenic 1 of our 5 ex-ministers says, that the absorption connected tiny boats "is a campaigning instrumentality to thrust a wedge betwixt the authorities and the opposition", and the argumentation "won't work".

They suggested that amerciable migration has always, and volition ever be, a occupation - and it is lone the visibility of boats connected the Channel seashore that has accrued the unit to act.

The authorities "smashed" amerciable entries done the Channel tunnel, they claimed, truthful those hopeless to participate the UK turned to tiny boats.

"When they came done the passageway we didn't know" however galore migrants determination were, they suggested, but present they are picked up astatine oversea alternatively than disappearing into the Kent countryside from trucks oregon containers.

'It is imaginable that we are getting the aforesaid numbers but nary 1 wants to speech astir that, nary 1 wants to admit, 'if you unopen down 1 route, what's next'?" the erstwhile curate told me.

All 5 of the erstwhile location secretaries I spoke to were crystal wide astir 1 thing.

The UK authorities tin alteration and amended the migration strategy and marque a quality to the numbers of radical who travel to unrecorded successful the UK.

But arsenic overmuch arsenic politicians hatred to admit it, determination are factors that they cannot power that pb radical to permission their countries - conflict, clime change, economics.

One warns that the unit is lone going 1 way: "If you deliberation it's atrocious now, you ain't seen thing yet," they said.

Another was frustrated that our authorities has made it hard to acceptable retired a affirmative lawsuit for migration - "there is simply a occupation of a rising colonisation but it's amended than the occupation of a falling one".

This authorities has made large promises connected immigration. But it has large difficulties.

There are disputes successful towns and cities implicit migrants being enactment up successful hotels, contention successful Parliament implicit the caller laws, and immense backlogs successful dealing with asylum cases.

And again, astatine root, determination is that contradiction, the authorities says it wants to bring the numbers down, but besides is allowing grounds numbers of radical to travel from overseas to work, oregon question refuge from Ukraine oregon determination present from Hong Kong.

Repeating a slogan does not lick a problem, particularly erstwhile a authorities is successful a tug of warfare with itself.