6:00 AM ET
ESPN Betting and Fantasy Analysts
Week 6 of the 2022 NFL play is the archetypal of the twelvemonth with teams connected byes (Detroit, Tennessee, Las Vegas, Houston), but determination are inactive plentifulness games to support an oculus on, including the nighttime matchup betwixt the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles.
But what does this each mean from a betting perspective? And what are the champion plays to assistance you marque astute wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan, phantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings, ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz connection their penetration into the games with tips and picks.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless different indicated.
What is your biggest betting storyline entering Week 6?
Doug Kezirian: On a macro level, I would accidental it's however galore backup quarterbacks we person seen and however we handicap those games. Some, specified arsenic Cooper Rush, person shined. Others person looked precise bad. Oddsmakers and the betting marketplace are benignant of mislaid with however to measure powerfulness ratings with these backup quarterbacks.
Joe Fortenbaugh: Teams traveling backmost from London. There person been 7 instances successful which a squad played successful London and past instantly successful America the adjacent week without going connected a bye. In those 7 instances, the hostile of the London squad has gone implicit their squad full six times. We saw it hap doubly past week with the Bears eclipsing their squad full against the Vikings and the Seahawks eclipsing their squad full against the Saints (Minnesota and New Orleans had played successful London the week prior). As a result, I similar the Jets to spell implicit 18.5 points against the Packers and the Ravens to spell implicit 25.5 points against the Giants, arsenic Green Bay and New York faced each different past week crossed the pond.
Aaron Schatz: The biggest crippled of the week is Buffalo and Kansas City, and that's the biggest betting storyline arsenic good due to the fact that Patrick Mahomes is simply a location underdog for the archetypal clip successful his career. The Chiefs are 7-0-1 against the dispersed erstwhile they've been underdogs with Mahomes astatine quarterback. Can the Bills interruption that streak and, much importantly, triumph this game?
Anita Marks: I hold with Aaron ... the biggest gambling communicative is Buffalo and KC. I'm conscionable arsenic intrigued with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens traveling to New Jersey for an assignment with Wink Martindale and the NY Giants. Wink was the Ravens' DC for 4 seasons -- facing Lamar Jackson astatine signifier and astir apt knows his tendencies amended than immoderate different DC successful the league. However, Wink plays a ton of antheral and blitzes astatine a 43% rate. Lamar has the fourth-best QB standing successful the league against blitz/man sum (136.5). We volition beryllium watching the eventual crippled of BattleShip! I'll instrumentality Captain Lamar and the Ravens squad full implicit 25.5 points (-115).
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The Kansas Chiefs (+3) are location underdogs for the archetypal clip successful Patrick Mahomes' vocation successful a rematch of the AFC Championship crippled against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. What are your thoughts connected the broadside and full (54) for this game?
Kezirian: This has each the makings of a shootout, and I judge 54 is excessively low. It's beauteous simple. These 2 teams fertile archetypal and 2nd successful violative efficiency, and the Chiefs defence is among the league's worst. Plus, each backmost is his team's champion subordinate and volition person the greenish airy to sling it. Give maine the over.
Fortenbaugh: I'm playing Buffalo implicit 28.5 points (-105). Short week for a Kansas City defence that perfectly stinks defending the pass. And it's not similar Buffalo is frightened to play astatine Arrowhead Stadium. The Bills went 1-1 astatine Kansas City past twelvemonth portion scoring 36 oregon much points some times. I'm expecting a large crippled from Stefon Diggs.
Schatz: I'm staying distant from the spread, which I deliberation is close connected the wealth fixed however bully these teams person been this season. Instead, I'll spell with an nether 54 play due to the fact that I deliberation these defenses are a spot underrated. Buffalo is presently No. 2 successful antiaircraft DVOA. The Bills defence has been amended than their discourtesy this year! The Chiefs aren't arsenic bully connected that broadside of the ball, but they're an mean defence this season, which is much than we usually expect from them. I cognize however bully these quarterbacks are, but 54 is simply a precocious fig to hit.
Erin Dolan: Hard not to backmost the implicit here. Including playoffs, the mean full for Josh Allen vs. Mahomes successful their 4 matchups is 55 points, and each of their past 3 meetings person deed the over. That mean full for these QBS is the highest for immoderate QB matchup successful the past 35 seasons. Also of note, wholly hold with Joe Fortenbaugh's investigation above. Kansas City's defence is not that bully and Allen and institution should feast connected that.
Eric Moody: Bettors are expecting a high-scoring crippled betwixt the Bills and Chiefs. That's what I deliberation too. Allen and Mahomes person played astatine MVP levels this season. The past 3 matchups betwixt Buffalo and Kansas City person averaged 66 full points, with each outing surpassing this week's total. In presumption of points per crippled this season, the Chiefs are archetypal with 31.8 and the Bills are 2nd with 30.4. While Buffalo volition privation revenge for their demise the past 2 seasons, I'm taking Kansas City and the points. At home, the Bills discourtesy averages 39.5 points per game, portion connected the road, it averages lone 24.3 points per game. Regardless, I'm definite the AFC showdown volition beryllium breathtaking to ticker and volition person galore twists and turns.
Andre Snellings: I'll instrumentality the Chiefs with the points and the over. These were expected to beryllium 2 of the champion teams successful the league entering the season, and they've been precisely that truthful far. I expect this to beryllium a competitory crippled and for some teams to enactment plentifulness of points connected the board. In a crippled that I see a prime 'em that could spell down to the wire, I similar having that tract extremity leeway successful my team's favor. The 2 times these teams played past season, they combined for 58 points successful regularisation some times (64 points full successful overtime, successful the playoffs matchup). I'm expecting a akin outcome, this clip around.
Marks: How often are we going to get Reid and Mahomes arsenic a location 'dog!?!? Sign maine up! KC's Chris Jones should marque things uncomfortable for Allen down the interior of his violative line, which ranks 26th successful the NFL. The Chiefs expect to get CB Trent McDuffie back, and the Bills are inactive dealing with a fig of injuries successful their secondary. The Bills play a batch of portion coverage, an country wherever Mahomes thrives. Ref Brad Allen volition beryllium officiating this matchup, wherever location underdogs screen 67% since 2016 nether watch.
The Dallas Cowboys caput to Lincoln Financial Field to look the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles successful a conflict for NFC East supremacy. Philadelphia is presently a 6-point favourite and the full for the crippled is 42. Who are you taking and who bash you similar to triumph the part this twelvemonth (Cowboys +340, Eagles -320)?
Fortenbaugh: Under 42 points. Philly is banged up on the violative enactment and facing a coagulated Dallas defence that has yet to surrender much than 19 points successful a game. On the different broadside of the tract stands Cooper Rush and a Cowboys discourtesy that ranks 24th successful scoring. This is simply a bully Philly defence that volition person the payment of a raucous Lincoln Financial Field astatine its back.
2:44
Joe Fortenbaugh and Doug Kezirian preview what they similar for the Cowboys vs. Eagles matchup successful Week 6.
Schatz: I've been driving the Eagles bandwagon since they were my NFC Super Bowl prime successful the preseason, and I'm not going to halt present that they're 5-0. The Eagles person a top-five discourtesy and defence by DVOA. They're the amended discourtesy and an adjacent defense, and they're astatine home, truthful springiness maine Eagles -6. I'm besides taking the Eagles to triumph the division, successful peculiar due to the fact that they person the easiest remaining docket successful the league, but I wouldn't enactment wealth down with those likelihood due to the fact that they astir precisely lucifer what we person successful our playoff likelihood simulation astatine Football Outsiders.
Dolan: Philly archetypal fractional -3. It's an automatic play until the Eagles driblet the shot connected this. They are outsourcing opponents 106 to 45 successful the archetypal fractional this play -- by acold the champion specified scoring borderline successful the NFL. The Eagles are besides the 4th squad successful the past 15 seasons to not way successful the 2nd fractional done their archetypal 5 games. The Cowboys defence is nary joke, but Dallas is averaging 11 points successful the archetypal fractional this play and Philly is starring the league averaging 21. Philly starts disconnected fast.
Moody: I'm backing the Eagles to screen the spread. Averaging 419.8 full yards per game, Philadelphia's discourtesy has been lethal this season. The Bills (440.4) are the lone squad that averages more. Although the Cowboys defence has been outstanding, they person faced the Buccaneers, Bengals, Giants, Commanders and Rams truthful acold this season. In full yards per game, nary of those offenses fertile wrong the apical 15. They person besides faced violative lines that fertile adjacent the bottommost of the league successful walk artifact triumph rate. As I spot it, the Eagles' violative enactment is 1 of the champion successful the league, and that volition marque a immense quality successful this matchup. I'd stake connected the nether successful this matchup. The nether is 10-1-1 successful the Cowboys' past 12 games pursuing a straight-up and against-the-spread win. Philadelphia is inactive the wide favourite to triumph the NFC East. By defeating the Cowboys, the Eagles could statesman to abstracted themselves from the pack.
Snellings: I'll instrumentality the Cowboys with the points. In a conflict of 2 elite defenses, getting a afloat touchdown positive fractional an other constituent is simply a lot. The Cowboys person yet to larn however to suffer with Rush astatine quarterback, and they play a clock-controlling, ground-heavy crippled that does conscionable capable with their defence keeping it close. I'm not definite they person capable to get by the Eagles playing that way, but I bash deliberation they'll support it competitive.
For the NFC East, I was successful connected the Eagles during the offseason erstwhile I could get them astatine underdog odds. But the Cowboys are excessively bully for it to beryllium a wide vantage for either squad moving forward. So, close now, I'd instrumentality the Cowboys astatine +340 due to the fact that I don't judge the Eagles are 3 times much apt than them to triumph the division.
Marks:, Fly Eagles Fly ... and drawback them astatine -6.5. Who person the Boys beaten? A Bengals squad aft Joe Burrow's appendix burst, the Giants, Washington and a horrible Rams team!? Rush is expected to beryllium nether halfway and, albeit a large storyline, helium lone has passed for six touchdowns successful 5 games. That is not going to chopped it against the high-flying Eagles. Dallas is hardly getting into the reddish portion (30th successful the NFL) and lone 35% of their scoring is touchdowns. Ref John Hussey volition beryllium calling this game, and location teams person the champion winning percent nether Hussey (67%, 73% successful part games) since 2016.
What are the 3 astir important things that our analytics say?
Walder: Here's 3 sides against the dispersed that FPI likes.
Buffalo Bills astatine Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, GEHA Field astatine Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
FPI considers the Chiefs to beryllium the champion squad successful football, truthful it really favors Kansas City by a tract extremity here. The Chiefs are the amended offense; they mean 0.05 expected points added per play much than the Bills, meaning they make an other 3 points implicit 60 plays from scrimmage. That's nothing. And portion the Bills person been -- and are -- much, overmuch amended than the Chiefs, past antiaircraft show is little indicative of aboriginal show than past violative show is for aboriginal offense. I expect our prediction volition tighten if immoderate questionable Bills players, similar information Jordan Poyer, are capable to play -- but I ideate the exemplary inactive volition similar the Bills.
New England Patriots astatine Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland
The Browns' violative ratio has been singular contempt having Jacoby Brissett astatine quarterback. Cleveland ranks archetypal successful EPA per designed tally play and ninth per dropback. That's truly good! And their crushed crippled is bully capable that they tin support moving the ball, and it's not really costly the mode it is for astir teams. Now, Cleveland's antiaircraft efficiency? Eek, that's different story. But again, defence is little predictable. So the information that we judge Cleveland is simply a bully discourtesy is worthy astir doubly arsenic overmuch arsenic america believing the Browns person a mediocre defense.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) astatine Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Lucan Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
From FPI's perspective, the Jags' ought to beryllium tract extremity favorites here. Indianapolis' discourtesy is miserable, ranking virtually worst successful the league successful EPA per play. The Jaguars aren't perfect, but they fertile 18th successful the aforesaid class ... and that's their worse broadside of the ball. The Jaguars fertile 3rd successful EPA per play connected defence to the Colts' 11th. The Jags are conscionable consecutive up the amended team, and that much than makes up for home-field advantage. And successful lawsuit you forgot, conscionable a fewer weeks agone the Jaguars unopen retired this precise aforesaid Colts team.
What is your champion stake for Week 6?
Kezirian: Vikings -3. Statistically, the Dolphins discourtesy truly takes elephantine steps backward with Skylar Thompson astatine quarterback. I conscionable don't spot however they support gait with a Vikings discourtesy that ranks sixth successful violative efficiency. Since this is not a premier clip game, I americium comfy backing Kirk Cousins.
Fortenbaugh: Jets squad full implicit 18.5 points. I deliberation the Green Bay defence volition beryllium gassed traveling backmost from London, and this Jets offense, shockingly, ranks 11th successful the NFL successful scoring astatine 23.2 points per game.
0:27
Joe Fortenbaugh explains wherefore the Jets volition apt people much than 18 points against the Packers.
Schatz: I'm blessed to instrumentality Jacksonville +2.5 astatine Indianapolis this week. The Jaguars are presently seventh successful the league successful DVOA based connected their play done 5 games. No, they aren't truly that good, but our DAVE ratings which harvester 2022 with preseason projections inactive enactment them 17th. Meanwhile, the Colts are dormant past successful DVOA close present contempt a 2-2-1 record. They are easy the worst discourtesy successful the league and would beryllium adjacent worse if they mislaid much of those fumbles they support fumbling. It's not going to beryllium 24-0 similar a fewer weeks ago, but I would springiness the Jaguars amended than adjacent likelihood of sweeping the play bid here.
Snellings: I was going to accidental Vikings -3 implicit the Dolphins, but Doug bushed maine to it. So, I'll accidental Bengals and Saints nether 43 points. These are 2 beardown defenses and 2 frankincense acold underwhelming offenses. The Bengals and their opponents person yet to harvester for much than 43 points successful immoderate crippled this season, and they're averaging a combined 39.4 PPG successful those 5 contests. The Saints person had 2 consecutive bully scoring games, 1 against an highly generous Seahawks defence that had perfectly nary involvement successful tackling Taysom Hill and the different an antithetic crippled successful Europe against the Vikings. But successful the 2 games earlier that, the Saints had averaged lone 12 PPG and combined with their opponents to mean 33 full points scored.
Marks: I'm going backmost to the good for a 2nd consecutive week. Seattle (+1) archetypal fractional vs Arizona. The Cardinals person been outscored 38-0 successful the archetypal 4th this season. Seattle has scored successful implicit 60% of their archetypal fractional possessions. Marinate successful this ... the Seahawks are 2nd successful yards per play (behind the Bills), and fertile successful the apical 3 successful rushing and passing offense. They averaged 8 yards per play past week against a overmuch amended Saints defence -- and enactment up 32 points (19 successful the archetypal half).
What is your favourite subordinate prop?
Schatz: Let's spell with Eno Benjamin implicit 77.5 rushing and receiving yards combined. With James Conner ruled out, Benjamin volition beryllium the workhorse against a Seahawks defence that ranks 24th successful tally defence DVOA and gives up implicit 50 receiving yards per crippled to opposing moving backs truthful acold this year.
Dolan: Kyler Murray implicit 27.5 rushing yards. The Seahawks let the astir yards per crippled and are particularly unspeakable against the run, ranking dormant last. Murray has averaged 27 rushing yards per crippled this season.
Moody: Marquise Brown implicit 69.5 receiving yards. Since moving to Arizona, Brown has emerged arsenic Kyler Murray's apical receiver. His transportation to Murray, with whom helium played assemblage shot with astatine Oklahoma, is portion of the crushed for this. In the past 3 games, Brown has averaged 9.3 targets and 102 receiving yards. This season, the Seahawks defence allows the seventh astir passing yards per game. It volition beryllium Brown's last crippled earlier DeAndre Hopkins returns from suspension. He'll person a monster crippled against Seattle successful a crippled that has a enactment of 50.5 points.
Marks: Tom Brady implicit 276.5 passing yards (-115). Brady owns the Steelers with a 12-3 record. He sports a 112 passer rating, averages implicit 280 passing yards a crippled and has tossed 34 touchdowns against this franchise. TJ Watt is inactive retired with an injury, Brady's discourtesy has been improving each week, and the Steelers secondary has been precise benignant to opposing wide receivers.
Walder: Tyler Higbee nether 54.5 receiving yards (-120). This is an awfully precocious enactment for a non-elite choky end. I tin spot however it ended up here; Higbee has been an implicit people machine. But here's the thing, those targets are coming with an mean extent of conscionable 3.48 yards. Even if the shot keeps coming his way, he's going to request a ton of targets oregon immoderate superior YAC to deed the over.
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