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Seth WalderESPN Analytics
With the College Football Playoff contention holding dependable -- six teams vying for 4 spots if we're generalizing, as we wrote past week -- let's instrumentality a look astatine an alternate universe: the 12-team playoff.
Since agelong earlier we knew the 12-team CFP was a reality, I've been fascinated by what assemblage shot would look similar if that were the strategy successful place. Thanks to the Allstate Playoff Predictor (and my colleagues connected the analytics squad that maneuvered it into a 12-team format), we're capable to bash conscionable that: look astatine what we would beryllium seeing if this were Week 9 of 2022 with 12 teams yet making the playoff.
So, let's interruption it down!
The playoff race
As I alluded to astatine the top, determination are six teams with astatine slightest a 49% changeable astatine the existent four-team CFP: Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, Alabama, Tennessee and Michigan. In the 12-team universe, those six teams would each person astatine slightest a 96% changeable astatine a berth.
That does not mean those teams would beryllium coasting until the playoff, however, due to the fact that nary of them are locks for that important bye. More connected that successful a minute.
But let's look astatine immoderate notable teams that would person a existent changeable to marque a 12-team CFP.
The Trojans get an automatic 32% playoff probability from their accidental to triumph the Pac-12. But they're besides beardown at-large bid contenders, adjacent successful simulations successful which they don't triumph their league -- with different 32% accidental they extremity up successful the CFP that way. Not lone that, but Lincoln Riley and the Trojans would person a 2.5% accidental astatine a nationalist championship. Which mightiness not dependable similar much! But it's amended than the conscionable nether 1% accidental the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives them now.
TCU is successful a akin circumstance: It has a beardown changeable to triumph the Big 12, but that's apt not capable to scope the existent four-team CFP due to the fact that FPI has astir nary religion that the Horned Frogs tin triumph retired (just a 2% chance). But successful a 12-team world, winning the Big 12 would beryllium enough. And, similar USC, TCU has a decent at-large probability, too.
This is wherever the at-large spots truly travel into play. The Nittany Lions person astir nary changeable to triumph the Big Ten, but the other at-large positions mean they precise overmuch could play their mode into the CFP. Penn State present ranks 11th successful FPI standing and ninth successful spot of record.
Good news: With the apical six league champions reaching the CFP successful the caller format, the Bearcats could and would person an automatic bid if they won the American Athletic Conference. That's due to the fact that there's nary different Group of 5 squad that's a existent menace to them this year. So Cincinnati controls its ain destiny.
Bad news: It has nary different outs. Cincinnati has to triumph its conference; it's not going to get successful arsenic an at-large.
But Cincinnati -- this twelvemonth -- would instrumentality that woody each time of the week.
The bye race
So not lone would the existent apical six teams successful presumption of playoff chances not beryllium locks for a bye, immoderate of them would adjacent beryllium agelong shots.
That's 1 of the effects of the 12-team playoff: It places adjacent much accent connected winning your conference. It means that for a squad similar Georgia, adjacent though reaching the playoff would beryllium a lock, the Bulldogs would lone person a 45% accidental astatine a bye. Same with Michigan, which would person a 24% changeable astatine a bye. And Tennessee with conscionable a 9% accidental astatine a bye.
Other teams that aren't guaranteed to scope the playoff would really person a amended changeable astatine a bye, which is an absorbing dynamic. USC and TCU and adjacent Oregon would each person astatine slightest a 20% changeable astatine a bye contempt each sitting betwixt 50-65% accidental astatine the playoff. And teams specified arsenic Utah, Oklahoma State and adjacent three-loss Texas would person an extracurricular changeable due to the fact that the teams each could triumph their respective conferences, and you ne'er cognize what benignant of chaos volition hap elsewhere.
It each comes backmost to the league -- and however overmuch the caller strategy weighs winning it.
The title race
The wide effect of the 12-team playoff is simply a spot of a flattening of the title chances. Which is precisely what we'd expect: More teams successful the playoff means contenders person to leap done much hoops to triumph it all.
And we tin spot it close astatine the top: Ohio State has a 31% accidental to triumph the nationalist title successful the existent world, but lone a 25% accidental with a 12-team playoff this season.
There are besides lone six teams with astatine slightest a 1% accidental to triumph the nationalist title close now. But if we had a 12-team playoff? There would beryllium 13.
One radical of teams the 12-team format helps successful presumption of reaching the playoff but hurts successful presumption of winning it are the existent contenders that aren't league favorites: Michigan and Tennessee. That's due to the fact that close present the 2 teams each person astir a 50-50 accidental of entering into a four-team playoff. But successful the 12-team format, the Wolverines and Volunteers would person precise small accidental of earning a bye due to the fact that they are improbable to triumph their respective conferences, meaning they would beryllium headed toward a four-round playoff alternatively of a three-rounder if they had a existent changeable astatine the bye.
As a result, Michigan's nationalist title chances driblet from 9% contiguous to 7% successful the 12-team universe, and Tennessee's chances driblet from 7% to 4%.
Lauren Poe contributed to this article.
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