Lando Norris has been closing the spread to drivers' title person Max Verstappen since the summertime interruption but volition helium beryllium capable to overhaul the Dutchman implicit the last six races of 2024?
BBC Sport analyses the Formula 1 rubric conflict to analyse what the McLaren operator needs to do, the factors that whitethorn assistance him and whether past offers him hope.
When and wherever are the remaining six races?
18-20 October: United States Grand Prix*
25-27 October: Mexican Grand Prix
1-3 November: Brazilian Grand Prix*
22-24 November: Las Vegas Grand Prix
29 November-1 December: Qatar Grand Prix*
6-8 December: Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
*denotes a sprint event, with the further contention connected the Saturday earlier the main expansive prix connected the Sunday
Norris is 52 points down Red Bull's Verstappen with six races to spell - 3 of which are sprint events, and a full of 180 points are available.
That means Norris needs to adjacent connected Verstappen by an mean of 8.9 points per contention - much than the quality betwixt archetypal and 2nd places but little than the quality betwixt archetypal and third.
How are points awarded for finishing positions?
The points for the apical 10 places successful a expansive prix are: 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1
What quality volition sprint races make?
There are much points disposable astatine a sprint event. In summation to the points for a expansive prix, the victor of the sprint receives 8 points, 2nd spot 7 and truthful connected down to eighth.
Verstappen has won each 3 sprint races truthful far, though the past 1 was successful June, successful Austria. He has not taken the chequered emblem archetypal since then.
Will fastest laps beryllium a factor?
Yes. There's a constituent for the operator who sets fastest thigh arsenic agelong arsenic helium finishes successful the apical 10, and each constituent could count.
There is nary constituent for fastest thigh successful a sprint.
Can their team-mates marque a difference?
Yes. If McLaren's Oscar Piastri tin bushed Verstappen, past it reduces Verstappen's quality to people points. The aforesaid goes for Red Bull's Sergio Perez connected some Norris and Piastri, but fixed the Mexican's mediocre form, that seems little likely.
Does Norris request assistance from Ferrari and Mercedes?
He doesn't request it, but it would help. The much drivers who tin get betwixt Norris and Verstappen - the little Verstappen finishes, successful different words - the amended it is for Norris.
Will definite tracks favour definite teams oregon drivers?
It's precise hard to reply this question.
Before Monza, McLaren believed that would beryllium a comparatively anemic circuit for them, but they qualified archetypal and second, though Ferrari's Charles Leclerc bushed them to victory.
Before Singapore, you mightiness person said that thoroughfare circuits were Red Bull's Achilles heel, which would person led 1 to judge Las Vegas mightiness beryllium an contented for Verstappen.
But Verstappen finished 2nd successful Singapore, against expectations.
So, the reply seems to beryllium no. It's conscionable a question of who does the champion occupation each weekend.
What happens if the drivers decorativeness level connected points?
If drivers necktie connected points, the victor is determined by results countback. Initially that would beryllium who has the astir wins. If that is equal, past who has the astir 2nd places and truthful on.
Have Norris and Verstappen clashed this season?
Yes. They collided portion warring for the pb successful Austria. Verstappen was penalised for the manoeuvre, but that did not assistance Norris, arsenic helium retired and Verstappen finished fifth, a presumption not affected by the 10-second punishment helium was given.
Although rubric battles thin to present hostility successful the narration betwixt the drivers successful question, their off-track narration remains good.
Have eventual satellite champions travel from a agelong mode backmost before?
Yes. In 2007, Ferrari's Kimi Raikkonen was 17 points down McLaren's Lewis Hamilton with 2 races to go. There was a antithetic points strategy them, and that was the equivalent of 43 points now. The Finn won by a point.
Other examples see 1986, erstwhile McLaren's Alain Prost was 11 points down Williams' Nigel Mansell - the equivalent of 33 points present - with 2 races to spell and won. And 1983, erstwhile Brabham's Nelson Piquet was 14 points - the equivalent of 43 points present - down Prost with 3 races to spell and won.
How person McLaren managed to adjacent the spread to Red Bull?
Red Bull started the play with a comfortably faster car than McLaren, who were 3rd fastest down Ferrari arsenic good successful the archetypal 5 races. But a large upgrade successful Miami made the McLaren competitory overnight.
As clip has gone by, the McLaren has got much and much competitory and the Red Bull has fallen back. It remains to beryllium seen what happens implicit the last six races, erstwhile some teams are expected to present further upgrades.
Because of his 52-point lead, Verstappen remains the favourite to triumph the drivers' title but McLaren are good acceptable to instrumentality the constructors' title.
Words: Andrew Benson and Alan Jewell
Graphics: Andy Dicks