What happens to the Wagner group now?

Yevgeny Prigozhin spent astir a decennary gathering the Wagner paramilitary group.

It became cardinal to Russia's warfare effort successful Ukraine and Prigozhin's troops helped to dispersed Russian power crossed the globe, propping up allies of President Vladimir Putin successful Africa and Syria.

Now his decease has sparked a flurry of speculation astir the group's future.

Western information officials are wondering who volition instrumentality his spot and what volition hap to the mercenaries helium erstwhile led.

Dr Joana de Deus Pereira, elder probe chap astatine the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), told the BBC's World Tonight programme that Prigozhin's decease would apt pb to "a definite revamping" of the group.

But she said that wide Wagner's operations would astir apt proceed successful overmuch the aforesaid mode arsenic it had nether Prigozhin's leadership.

"The organisation volition persist successful the aboriginal astir apt with different name, but it has already proved it has the capableness to accommodate and to morph," she said.

"We person to look astatine Wagner not lone arsenic a azygous antheral but arsenic an ecosystem, arsenic a hydra with galore many heads and galore divers interests successful Africa."

Ruslan Trad, a information expert with the Atlantic Council, agreed. He told the BBC that Prigozhin's decease would apt spot idiosyncratic with connections to Russia's subject quality service, the GRU, installed to pb the radical successful his place.

But helium suggested that the main situation for Mr Putin whitethorn beryllium uncovering idiosyncratic with heavy capable pockets to money the paramilitary's operations, portion not posing a nonstop situation to his regime.

"They volition effort to find a caller financier due to the fact that Prigozhin was the main idiosyncratic with wealth there," Mr Trad said.

"I deliberation it volition beryllium much hard to find a caller financier due to the fact that [Wagner] person bully commanders, but wealth is important here. Maybe they volition [install] idiosyncratic from the adjacent ellipse astir Putin."

Benoît Bringer, a writer whose documentary The Rise of Wagner charted the paramilitary's rise, told the BBC that 1 of the starring contenders is GRU General Andrey Averyanov.

"It is apt that Putin needed clip to secretly organise the transition. This would explicate wherefore helium waited 2 months earlier getting work of Prigozhin," helium added.

Emily Ferris of Rusi observed that Moscow "will person apt learned its acquisition that personalities similar Prigozhin with their ain unsafe ambitions are a wildcard," adding that "any caller [Wagner] person would apt beryllium idiosyncratic handpicked by the Kremlin".

For overmuch of the past twelvemonth Wagner was Russia's astir effectual warring unit successful Ukraine, with its troops successfully taking the eastbound cities of Soledar and Bakhmut aft bloody battles.

But Ms Ferris said Prigozhin's decease was improbable to earnestly interaction the people of the war.

"Wagner troops person been retired of enactment successful Ukraine since the rebellion, and their troops stationed either successful Belarus, oregon absorbed backmost successful to the Ministry of Defence, truthful the interaction instantly connected the Ukraine war, wherever the Russian forces are inactive holding backmost the Ukrainian counter-offensive, is apt to beryllium minimal for now," she observed.

She added that it appeared improbable that Wagner troops would instrumentality to the battlefield successful Ukraine, astatine slightest successful the abbreviated term.

Meanwhile, astir 8,000 Wagner troops are said to stay astatine camps successful Belarus, having followed Prigozhin determination aft his failed uprising successful June.

Their aboriginal is present unclear, with immoderate reports connected societal media suggesting that respective troops had made explicit threats against Mr Putin for what they alleged was his relation successful Prigozhin's death.

Equally unclear is the aboriginal of Wagner's troops abroad. The radical has go a cardinal pillar of Russian overseas policy, with its forces helping to prop up governments successful Syria, Mali, the Central African Republic and Libya successful speech for lucrative mining rights.

In caller days Prigozhin is believed to person been contiguous successful West Africa, wherever Western analysts fearfulness the radical was seeking to widen its scope into different countries, including Niger wherever a coup has conscionable taken place.

Some had speculated that the decapitation of the group's enactment could unit Russia to re-evaluate its attempts to question power successful the region, but galore experts judge the group's decentralised bid connected the continent should let it to proceed its operations unhindered by Prigozhin's death.

Following June's mutiny, Russian officials were reported to person flown to Libya to conscionable with Khalifa Haftar, the renegade wide challenging the UN-recognised authorities successful Tripoli, and assured him of the Wagner Group's continued support, careless of Prigozhin's fate.

Mr Trad told the BBC that helium believed Wagner was truthful heavy integrated successful the defence infrastructure of African countries that their operations would beryllium untroubled by Prigozhin's death.

"The commanders stationed successful Syria, oregon Central African Republic oregon Mali, they already person precise bully models successful spot determination and they person the state to act," helium said.

"Local commanders are not impacted due to the fact that the operations are separately operational, they person antithetic resources for this and adjacent present they are recruiting for Syria and Africa operations."

And helium said the group's arms magnitude narration with Russian quality would stay a invaluable instrumentality for Moscow, allowing it to run successful the "grey zone" wherever it could prosecute Russia's interests, but allowing officials to contradict involvement.

Mr Bringer told the BBC that Wagner's was "essential successful Africa" successful presumption of promoting Russian interests. "The operation volition surely proceed to beryllium there, possibly nary longer nether the sanction of Wagner, but with a caller caput loyal to the Kremlin," helium said.

Anton Mardasov, a non-resident student astatine the Middle East Institute's Syria Program, said adjacent successful the aftermath of Prigozhin's failed uprising successful Russia, Wagner commanders overseas broadly avoided Kremlin reprisals to debar "weakening Moscow's wide position".

But helium said different mercenary companies were progressively rivalling Wagner's relation successful Syria. After June's mutiny Mr Mardasov said that a fig of Wagner troops had been offered a transportation to a competing institution called PMC Redut.

"Redut has been moving successful Syria successful parallel with Wagner for a agelong time," Mr Mardasov told the BBC. "It is connected the Redut that the subject is betting successful Syria, but they were acrophobic of accelerated steps."

In the medium-term, therefore, it seems improbable that Wagner's operations volition beryllium importantly impacted by its benefactor's death. But successful the longer word Wagner's operations look acceptable reforming into thing new, Emily Ferris of Rusi said.

"Most apt is that Wagner volition splinter into two, with the remaining leaderless groupings successful Belarus disbanded, and the different faction progressive overseas morphing into thing other that tin beryllium a instrumentality of Russian overseas policy," she told the BBC.

As for Prigozhin's legacy, Mr Bringer told the BBC that Wagner had "demonstrated to the Kremlin however a backstage shadowy army, susceptible of operating wholly retired of the law, could beryllium utile successful its hybrid wars, arsenic good arsenic to summation power abroad."

"The sanction of Wagner whitethorn disappear, but not the mercenaries successful the tract and the method helium created."