What is Vladimir Putin thinking and planning? - BBC

It's the question we've been asking for months now, adjacent earlier Russia invaded Ukraine.

What is Vladimir Putin reasoning and planning?

Let maine get the disclaimer successful early. I person nary Kremlin crystal ball. Neither bash I person Putin connected nonstop dial.

Former US President George W Bush erstwhile said he'd looked Vladimir Putin successful the oculus and "got a consciousness of his soul". Look however good that ended for relations betwixt Russia and the West.

So, getting wrong the caput of the Kremlin person is simply a beauteous thankless task. But it's important to try. Perhaps much than ever now, successful airy of caller atomic sabre-rattling by Moscow.

There's small uncertainty that the Russian president is nether pressure. His alleged "special subject operation" successful Ukraine has gone severely incorrect for him.

It was expected to past a fewer days. But we're astir 8 months successful and there's nary extremity successful sight.

The Kremlin admits "significant" unit losses; successful caller weeks the Russian subject has been losing territory successful Ukraine which it had antecedently occupied.

To boost unit numbers, past period President Putin declared partial mobilisation, thing he'd insisted helium wouldn't do. Meanwhile, sanctions proceed to degrade the Russian economy.

So, backmost to Putin's authorities of mind. Will helium beryllium reasoning helium got it each wrong, that his determination to invade was a cardinal error?

"Putin's perceptions thrust the full concern successful this conflict," believes Konstantin Remchukov, proprietor and editor-in-chief of the Russian paper Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

"He is the authoritarian person of a atomic power. He's the unchallenged person successful this country. He has immoderate beardown beliefs and perceptions which thrust him crazy. He's started to judge that this is existential from the constituent of presumption of importance. Not lone for him. But for the aboriginal of Russia."

If this struggle is existential, however acold is President Putin prepared to spell to triumph it?

In caller months elder Russian officials (including Putin himself) person been dropping unsubtle hints that the Kremlin person would beryllium prepared to usage atomic weapons successful this conflict.

"I don't deliberation helium will," US President Joe Biden told CNN. "But I deliberation that it's irresponsible for him to speech astir it."

This week's aggravated Russian bombardment of Ukraine suggests the Kremlin is, astatine the precise least, determined to escalate things with Kyiv.

"He's trying to debar nonstop confrontation with the West, but astatine the aforesaid clip he's prepared for it," believes seasoned wide person Grigory Yavlinsky. "I fearfulness astir the anticipation of atomic conflict. And, connected the 2nd place, I fearfulness endless war".

But "endless war" requires endless resources. That's thing Russia doesn't look to have. The question of rocket strikes connected Ukrainian cities is simply a melodramatic objection of force, but however agelong tin Moscow prolong that?

"Could you proceed this rocket travel for days, weeks, months? Many experts uncertainty that we person capable missiles," says Mr Remchukov.

"Also, from the subject constituent of view, no-one has ever said what would beryllium the motion of eventual [Russian] victory? What is the awesome of victory? In 1945 it was the banner implicit Berlin. What is the criteria of occurrence now? [A banner] implicit Kyiv? Over Kherson? Over Kharkiv? I don't know. Nobody knows."

It's not adjacent wide that Vladimir Putin knows.

Back successful February, the Kremlin's nonsubjective appears to person been the accelerated decision of Ukraine, forcing Russia's neighbour backmost into Moscow's orbit without a prolonged war. He miscalculated. He underestimated the determination of the Ukrainian service and radical to support their land, and seemingly overestimated the capabilities of his ain military.

What's helium reasoning now? Is Vladimir Putin's existent program to cement power implicit Ukrainian territory helium claims to person annexed and past frost the conflict? Or is helium determined to propulsion connected until the full of Ukraine is backmost successful the Kremlin's sphere of influence?

This week erstwhile Russian president Dmitry Medvedev wrote: "The Ukrainian authorities successful its existent configuration… volition beryllium a constant, nonstop and wide menace to Russia. I judge the purpose of our aboriginal actions should beryllium the implicit dismantling of Ukraine's governmental regime."

If Mr Medvedev's words bespeak President Putin's thinking, expect a protracted and bloody conflict.

But, inevitably, Mr Putin's actions overseas are having consequences astatine home. Over years the Kremlin painstakingly cultivated Putin's representation of "Mr Stability", encouraging the Russian nationalist to judge that arsenic agelong arsenic helium was successful complaint they would beryllium safe.

"The erstwhile declaration betwixt Putin and nine was that 'I support you'," says Mr Remchukov.

"For galore years the main slogan was 'predictability'. What benignant of predictability is determination today? The conception is over. Nothing is predictable. My journalists don't cognize whether they volition person call-up papers erstwhile they get location today."

Vladimir Putin's determination to invade Ukraine amazed many. But not Mr Yavlinsky.

"I deliberation that [Putin] had been moving successful that absorption - twelvemonth by twelvemonth helium was constructing the mode to what we person now," Mr Yavlinsky says.

"For example, destroying autarkic media. He started that successful 2001. Destroying autarkic business. He started that successful 2003. Then 2014 and what happened with Crimea and Donbas. You'd person to beryllium unsighted not to spot it.

"Russia's occupation is our system. A strategy was created present that created specified a idiosyncratic [as Putin]. The question of the West's relation successful creating this strategy is simply a precise superior one.

"The occupation is that this strategy didn't make a society. There are a batch of precise bully radical successful Russia. But determination is nary civilian society. That's wherefore Russia can't resist."